The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Alcon]

A five-margin disapproval in Kentucky, the same day SUSA shows an 18-point disapproval, is "momentous"?

And I would point out the ludicrousness of Kentucky randomly being the tipping-point state, and one poll being the grounds to ignoring national polls, but...eh.

[Alcon]

All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

That's kind of a weird model.

[Alcon]

Responses were weighted by age to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Questions based on a subsample of 539 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

what does that mean?

[Alcon]

It was leaked...by a Democratic party official.  Intentionally.  With his name attached.  That's not a leak.  That's a press release.  And what incentive would they have to highball Obama?  In the process of getting a sample that shows the Indiana Democrats hanging tough, obviously.

And it's still favorability, which is always quite a bit higher for Obama.  Why are you equalizing the two?

[Alcon]

...or number them.

[Alcon]

"Likely voters" in a midterm election are far closer to those of a Presidential election than are those in an odd-year election. For now, midterm elections matter far more than does the 2012 election.

Uh, not really.  Turnout in midterm years is closer to off-years, in both percent turnout and composition of the electorate.  What makes you think otherwise?

[Alcon]

I criticized your analysis and you just ignored me

[Alcon]

ARG = joke. Everyone seems to have forgot their wretched track record.

Actually they weren't that bad in 2008. Better than the RAS even:

That's because in the last month or two they suddenly started putting out super-average results (like, always the middle of the release pack) and, surprise surprise, that's where they ended.

[Alcon]

More likely: Because it's an Idaho polling company who did a state survey and figured to gain some press for doing the Presidential too.

[Alcon]

For a healthy reminder of why we shouldn't be overthinking polls: Massachusetts, the GOP-leaning swing state of 2012.

[Alcon]

For a healthy reminder of why we shouldn't be overthinking polls: Massachusetts, the GOP-leaning swing state of 2012.

Probably exagerated a bit, and note the 25/60 ratings Palin pulls in that same poll for comparison. Romney's numbers, at 49/43 are not that hot either.

That said, something is happening, and a lot of legislators on Beacon Hill are quite scared at the moment.

Just as well. The combination of arrogance and complacency is the bane of good government.

And the bane of other things, too...

[Alcon]

Rowan's map looks a lot worse for Obama.

Color choice. Red and green clash; green and yellow don't. That's more an esthetic statement than a political statement. Rowan and I basically agree.  

I think Rowan's map is easier to read (though dark green Maryland looks dark red).

You may want to look at your monitor's color settings if it does...although if a lot of the rest of the Northeast doesn't as well, that's a puzzler; they're the same shade.

[Alcon]

Sam Tan Polling Inc (MoE 4.1)

30% Excellent
70% Everything Else

Intriguingly, if you check the crosstabs, 17% of the responses were "pierogi."

[Alcon]

Hawaii(Rasmussen)

Approve 77%
Disapprove 23%

What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.

Hawai'i is intensely pro-incumbent, especially among the Asian/Pacific Islander populations.

[Alcon]

http://weaskamerica.com/

"MI-3 Poll: Does Battle Creek think health-care reform is GRRRREAT?"

I can't decide if this makes WeAskAmerica my new favorite, or new least favorite, pollster.

[Alcon]

Sam, is there still a real reason this is occurring, or is there now a fake reason?  Please advise.

[Alcon]

I think you colored Washington incorrectly

[Alcon]

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Unfortunately for Republicans, nothing done for Fox News should be taken seriously, even if it is Rasmussen.  

Unfortunately for members on this forum, nothing should be taken seriously about this thread or Pbrower's predictions for 2012.  He skews them in his favor.

I look at the numbers in my own way, this is just a nice place to go since all the polls are in one place.

Rasmussen surely have the best idea of where the country is, but when they do a poll specifically to be shown on Fox News, which in my mind is not a news organization, I don't really pay attention to it.

Are you bothered that statistical analysis of past Fox News polls doesn't back up your claim at all?

*Note the Orwell reference!

...thanks.

[Alcon]

Bradley effect in full swing with the Obama approval numbers.

Excuse me? What in gods name does the Bradley Effect have to do with approval ratings?

Oh, forget it your probably trolling.

Well, I mean, if the Bradley Effect existed, wouldn't it affect approval ratings as much, if not more, than horserace numbers?

[Alcon]

You interpret the range however you want - I'm just telling you what the internals say.

And I'm telling you what the range has been.

I love you both.  I'm just telling you that.

[Alcon]

Washington Registered voters
http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/oct15_2010.pdf

Obama: 52/45 favorable/unfavorable

A 45% unfavorable rating in Washington gets Obama to around 50% unfavorables nationwide with registered voters.

I like to cite favorable/unfavorable to dispute the liberal narrative that people still like Obama personally but only disapprove of his actions.

I imagine that, when asked if they have a "favorable opinion of President Obama," a significant chunk of people think job performance and not personality.  I know we call them "favorables" but I still think they're distinct from personal favorables.

[Alcon]

Couldn't you say that about anybody?

I think that people would be more likely to think politically when asked about Barack Obama than, say, Arnold Schwarzenegger, or even Joe Manchin.  There are a lot of factors to consider about a politician -- political ideology, political performance, personal approval.  My only point was that "do you have a favorable opinion of ____?" is not explicitly a personal approval question, and various degrees of the former two inevitably enter it.  So, your conclusion doesn't follow as obviously as you were making it seem.

[Alcon]

FOX
Generic Ballot 50-37 R
Obama at 41%

Because, as we all know, FOX is an unbiased, completely trustworthy network.

Fox's polling outlet (which is done through other firms) is not at all unreasonable.

[Alcon]

FOX
Generic Ballot 50-37 R
Obama at 41%

Because, as we all know, FOX is an unbiased, completely trustworthy network.

Fox's polling outlet (which is done through other firms) is not at all unreasonable.

I'm sure they have a hand in how the numbers turn out.  They are a propaganda outlet not a news network. 

Perhaps you might want to actually look up the history of Fox News's polling before you accuse them of inventing statistical claims to advance an ideological claim.  Because if you were wrong it would be pretty ironic, no?

[Alcon]

Fresh poll for New Jersey, and any old one is now irrelevant

not how things work, but go on