The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #50 on: April 01, 2010, 02:55:46 PM »

Instead of conspiracies, I'd expect to see approvals in the Senate numbers.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #51 on: April 02, 2010, 10:00:25 AM »

Cheney was the House Rep. there for many years, lest we forget.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #52 on: April 02, 2010, 12:07:34 PM »

Instead of conspiracies, I'd expect to see approvals in the Senate numbers.

As predicted:

Approval 46%
Disapproval 53%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_2010_ohio_senate_race_march_30_2010
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #53 on: April 06, 2010, 09:28:37 AM »

FYI about Rasmussen:

He had about a 2% GOP bias, on the whole, in his state polls in 2006 and 2008 (I need to recheck 2008, but I'm pretty sure that's right).  2000 (which most people don't remember) and 2004, his state polls were dead-on.  In 2000, this occurred even though his national poll was, well,... we remember.

Funny thing about 2006 is that his polls had less GOP bias in the end than SUSA, and definitely less than Mason-Dixon.  This is one of the reasons, btw, why I consider 2006 to be a wave election and not 2008.

Anyway, I think it's up to him to show that his polls don't just have a continual GOP bias and that 2006 and 2008 were not signs of a trend (i.e. show to me that 2006 was a wave election oddity and that 2008 was just because his weightings weren't right).  We'll see.

Right now, I am loathe to do this because a composite view of his state numbers matches his national numbers.  That being said, even if I include a 2% GOP bias, the state polls are still not very pretty.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #54 on: April 08, 2010, 10:39:52 AM »

Quinnipiac (PA)

45% Approve
49% Disapprove
 
From March 30 - April 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,412 Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1442

Rasmussen (CO)

42% Approve
57% Disapprove

29% Strongly approve
13% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
47% Strongly disapprove
0% Not sure


Colorado Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted April 5, 2010

link

Rasmussen (IL)

58% Approve
41% Disapprove

38% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
35% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure


Illinois Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted April 5, 2010

link
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #55 on: April 08, 2010, 09:57:14 PM »

Rasmussen (MO)

42% Approve
57% Disapprove

22% Strongly approve
18% Somewhat approve
13% Somewhat disapprove
46% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure


Missouri Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted April 6, 2010

link

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (National)

43% Approve
48% Disapprove

4/6-7/10; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/040810_Obama_HC_2010_web.pdf
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #56 on: April 11, 2010, 01:31:34 PM »

Obama Job Approval chart - ALL POLLS
Updated April 11, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- All polls per state done in last six weeks (must be started after Feb 21 for this week), maximum one poll per firm.
- Other polls done in last six months can be included, but no more than three polls per state can be outside the six week envelope and if more than three polls done in last six weeks, no polls before that.  (also if one poll done in last six weeks, then only two can be included in six month period, two polls, then one, etc).
- No favorable polls; no excellent/good/fair/poor polls; no Rutgers-Eagleton/Strategic Vision/any other questionable company; no partisan/internals, my judgment as to what is prevails
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special polls ignored.  New Jersey Gov polls wouldn't be included under the methodology anyways.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama340%58%39%37%42%
Alaska137%56%38%36%28%
Arizona245%52%45%44%45%
Arkansas337%60%39%45%46%
California556%38%61%54%53%
Colorado245%54%54%47%42%
Connecticut354%42%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware252%45%62%53%55%
Florida345%51%51%47%49%
Georgia343%54%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho233%62%36%30%28%
Illinois254%42%62%55%55%
Indiana139%60%50%39%41%
Iowa348%48%54%49%49%
Kansas240%60%42%37%37%
Kentucky337%60%41%40%41%
Louisiana137%62%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland358%34%62%56%57%
Massachusetts156%44%62%62%60%
Michigan148%50%57%51%51%
Minnesota149%49%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri343%54%49%46%47%
Montana137%53%47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada243%55%55%48%46%
New Hampshire249%49%54%50%47%
New Jersey354%39%57%53%56%
New Mexico250%47%57%49%48%
New York356%41%63%58%60%
North Carolina447%49%50%44%43%
North Dakota144%55%45%36%33%
Ohio444%52%51%49%46%
Oklahoma237%60%34%34%38%
Oregon249%50%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania346%50%54%51%51%
Rhode Island161%39%63%59%61%
South Carolina346%48%45%41%41%
South Dakota242%54%45%38%38%
Tennessee239%57%42%43%47%
Texas336%57%44%38%38%
Utah238%60%34%26%26%
Vermont262%36%67%59%51%
Virginia246%53%53%45%44%
Washington248%50%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin448%49%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL47%49%53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #57 on: April 11, 2010, 01:35:24 PM »

Not going to have a chance to put up the Rasmussen numbers now, but the national numbers for both 3 poll/1 poll = 48% Approval, 51% Disapproval.

As for state polls without Rasmussen, I'll put that up later.  Its extrapolation is going to probably be 47% Approval, 47% Disapproval, unless something expected occurs in my maths.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #58 on: April 11, 2010, 10:12:08 PM »

Obama Job Approval chart - RASMUSSEN LAST 3 POLLS
Updated April 11, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- This chart covers an average of the last two/three Rasmussen polls within the last six months, or simply the last poll if no poll exists in that time frame.
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special polls ignored.  New Jersey Gov polls wouldn't be included under the methodology anyways.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama142%58%39%37%42%
Alaska0NoneNone38%36%28%
Arizona342%58%45%44%45%
Arkansas336%62%39%45%46%
California358%42%61%54%53%
Colorado343%55%54%47%42%
Connecticut353%47%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware352%47%62%53%55%
Florida343%56%51%47%49%
Georgia343%55%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho130%70%36%30%28%
Illinois356%43%62%55%55%
Indiana342%57%50%39%41%
Iowa248%52%54%49%49%
Kansas142%58%42%37%37%
Kentucky339%59%41%40%41%
Louisiana338%62%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland159%40%62%56%57%
Massachusetts255%45%62%62%60%
Michigan250%49%57%51%51%
Minnesota351%48%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri341%58%49%46%47%
Montana0NoneNone47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada344%56%55%48%46%
New Hampshire349%51%54%50%47%
New Jersey153%47%57%53%56%
New Mexico154%46%57%49%48%
New York356%44%63%58%60%
North Carolina344%55%50%44%43%
North Dakota341%57%45%36%33%
Ohio347%52%51%49%46%
Oklahoma138%62%34%34%38%
Oregon150%49%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania346%53%54%51%51%
Rhode Island262%38%63%59%61%
South Carolina145%54%45%41%41%
South Dakota242%57%45%38%38%
Tennessee136%62%42%43%47%
Texas339%59%44%38%38%
Utah0NoneNone34%26%26%
Vermont160%39%67%59%51%
Virginia249%51%53%45%44%
Washington352%47%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin348%51%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL48%51%53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #59 on: April 11, 2010, 10:35:59 PM »

Obama Job Approval chart - RASMUSSEN LAST POLL
Updated April 11, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- This chart covers the last Rasmussen Poll in each state so long as under six months old.
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special/New Jersey polls ignored.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama142%58%39%37%42%
Alaska0NoneNone38%36%28%
Arizona142%56%45%44%45%
Arkansas137%61%39%45%46%
California158%42%61%54%53%
Colorado142%57%54%47%42%
Connecticut154%46%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware151%48%62%53%55%
Florida143%55%51%47%49%
Georgia144%54%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho130%70%36%30%28%
Illinois158%41%62%55%55%
Indiana139%60%50%39%41%
Iowa150%49%54%49%49%
Kansas142%58%42%37%37%
Kentucky138%62%41%40%41%
Louisiana137%62%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland159%40%62%56%57%
Massachusetts156%44%62%62%60%
Michigan148%50%57%51%51%
Minnesota149%49%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri140%59%49%46%47%
Montana0NoneNone47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada142%58%55%48%46%
New Hampshire149%50%54%50%47%
New Jersey153%47%57%53%56%
New Mexico154%46%57%49%48%
New York154%46%63%58%60%
North Carolina142%57%50%44%43%
North Dakota144%55%45%36%33%
Ohio146%53%51%49%46%
Oklahoma138%62%34%34%38%
Oregon150%49%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania148%51%54%51%51%
Rhode Island161%39%63%59%61%
South Carolina145%54%45%41%41%
South Dakota143%55%45%38%38%
Tennessee136%62%42%43%47%
Texas136%63%44%38%38%
Utah0NoneNone34%26%26%
Vermont160%39%67%59%51%
Virginia148%51%53%45%44%
Washington154%43%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin152%48%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL48%51%53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #60 on: April 11, 2010, 10:36:32 PM »

I'll do the Non-Rasmussen one tomorrow.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #61 on: April 12, 2010, 09:10:38 PM »

Obama Job Approval chart - ALL NON-RASMUSSEN POLLS
Updated April 12, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- All polls per state done in last six weeks (must be started after Feb 21 for this week), maximum one poll per firm.
- Other polls done in last six months can be included, but no more than three polls per state can be outside the six week envelope and if more than three polls done in last six weeks, no polls before that.  (also if one poll done in last six weeks, then only two can be included in six month period, two polls, then one, etc).
- No favorable polls; no excellent/good/fair/poor polls; no Rutgers-Eagleton/Strategic Vision/any other questionable company; no partisan/internals, my judgment as to what is prevails
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special polls ignored.  New Jersey Gov polls wouldn't be included under the methodology anyways.
- No Rasmussen polls in this one.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama239%58%39%37%42%
Alaska137%56%38%36%28%
Arizona148%48%45%44%45%
Arkansas238%60%39%45%46%
California455%38%61%54%53%
Colorado147%50%54%47%42%
Connecticut254%40%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware153%41%62%53%55%
Florida346%50%51%47%49%
Georgia242%55%47%41%43%
Hawaii0NoneNone72%54%56%
Idaho135%54%36%30%28%
Illinois150%42%62%55%55%
Indiana0NoneNone50%39%41%
Iowa248%48%54%49%49%
Kansas137%61%42%37%37%
Kentucky237%59%41%40%41%
Louisiana0NoneNone40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland258%32%62%56%57%
Massachusetts0NoneNone62%62%60%
Michigan0NoneNone57%51%51%
Minnesota0NoneNone54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri244%52%49%46%47%
Montana137%53%47%39%33%
Nebraska0NoneNone42%33%33%
Nevada144%52%55%48%46%
New Hampshire148%47%54%50%47%
New Jersey354%39%57%53%56%
New Mexico145%48%57%49%48%
New York257%39%63%58%60%
North Carolina348%46%50%44%43%
North Dakota0NoneNone45%36%33%
Ohio445%50%51%49%46%
Oklahoma136%58%34%34%38%
Oregon148%50%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania345%50%54%51%51%
Rhode Island0NoneNone63%59%61%
South Carolina247%45%45%41%41%
South Dakota141%52%45%38%38%
Tennessee142%51%42%43%47%
Texas338%54%44%38%38%
Utah238%60%34%26%26%
Vermont163%33%67%59%51%
Virginia144%54%53%45%44%
Washington146%49%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin346%49%56%50%48%
Wyoming0NoneNone33%29%28%
NATIONAL47%47%53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #62 on: April 12, 2010, 09:12:01 PM »

pbrower is missing a PA approval for Obama from Muhlenberg College at 45% approve, 50% approve.

I'll probably update these numbers every one or two weeks.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #63 on: April 15, 2010, 01:35:59 PM »

SUSA - look at website for details

CA - 55% A, 40% D
KS - 34% A, 62% D
OR - 47% A, 48% D
WA - 51% A, 45% D
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #64 on: April 20, 2010, 03:14:25 PM »

Folks, you're trying to overexplain what's going on - which is rather obvious, when you think about it.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #65 on: April 21, 2010, 09:53:20 AM »

Folks, you're trying to overexplain what's going on - which is rather obvious, when you think about it.

No, please, be cryptic so we can guess and marvel at what a man with such superior intellect and political instinct such as yourself is thinking.

Twat.

You know that I sometimes make my responses to get these types of comments.

1) Nationally, Obama has been at dead-even (X=X) in approvals for the last six months.  I see no change.  While it is true that his approval went slightly below dead-even in the heart of the health-care thing, that was most likely just hyped-up Republican anti-enthusiasm.

The key thing that has occurred since the healthcare debate is that Democrats who support the Prez are more energized (explains the Rasmussen movement) and conservatives are identifying.  In other words, the numbers haven't changed, but things are more partisanly polarized.

2) With state numbers, you always have to be careful about news events that move the polls by causing one side to become depressed or over-enthused (see Florida, Arizona in the past couple of days); bad polls (see an university poll); and states which are historically difficult/impossible to poll (Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin).

That being said, over the long-term, the numbers tend to work out and tend to match what's going on nationally.  You just can't go nuts because one poll says one thing that's unexpected.

3) The state polling suggests that the populace is reverting to its 1996-2004 evenness in partisan support.  Not necessarily the same patterns, of course.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #66 on: April 21, 2010, 06:04:03 PM »

The Arizona poll is a new poll, folks.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #67 on: April 27, 2010, 01:34:59 PM »

The "approval rating plus six" theory is one of the funniest things I've ever seen on the forum, up there with some of Naso's stuff.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #68 on: May 02, 2010, 09:26:03 PM »

Rasmussen in my home state of Illinois

61% approve
39% disapprove


And Rasmussen in Delaware

54% approve
46% disapprove


Is it just me or are state approvals quite a bit better than national approvals would suggest?

My particular formula says no.  I'm going to update the state approvals next week when I get the last straggler April polls, but unless something surprising occurs, it will say this:

ALL POLLS:  48% Approve, 48% Disapprove (from 47% Approve, 49% Disapprove)
W/O RASMUSSEN:  48% Approve, 46% Disapprove (from 47% Approve, 47% Disapprove)
RASMUSSEN LAST POLL/COMBINED LAST THREE:  48% Approve, 51% Disapprove (unchanged)

Rasmussen is saying 47/52 last month (among LV).  Gallup says 49/45 last month (among adults, which, given Gallup's normal formula for RV/LV, means you move the numbers 3 to 4 points towards Republicans, which also therefore means that his approval with Gallup aligns with Rasmussen).

48% is not different enough from 47% for me to say that it's anything except for MOE.  The disapprovals differ, but that probably has to do with methodology (and we can argue on that a bit, whatever). 

Fact is, I think it's pretty clear to me that 46% of the country is in the solid disapproval category and 46%-48% of the country is in the solid approval category.  And this is where I agree with Rasmussen (and have said so before) because I think it's been this way since October of last year (maybe since after Labor Day, but not before then).  It can stay this way for a while, and may well do so.  I think we get some action on way or another before 2012, of course, and probably during 2011, at latest.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #69 on: May 08, 2010, 11:01:20 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2010, 03:40:16 PM by Sam Spade »

Obama Job Approval chart - ALL POLLS
Updated May 8, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- All polls per state done in last six weeks (must be started after March 29 for this week), maximum one poll per firm.
- Other polls done in last six months can be included, but no more than three polls per state can be outside the six week envelope and if more than three polls done in last six weeks, no polls before that.  (also if one poll done in last six weeks, then only two can be included in six month period, two polls, then one, etc).
- No favorable polls; no excellent/good/fair/poor polls; no Rutgers-Eagleton/Strategic Vision/any other questionable company; no partisan/internals, my judgment as to what is prevails
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special polls ignored.  New Jersey Gov polls wouldn't be included under the methodology anyways.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama340%58%39%37%42%
Alaska137%56%38%36%28%
Arizona342%54%45%44%45%
Arkansas337%61%39%45%46%
California358%38%61%54%53%
Colorado246%53%54%47%42%
Connecticut354%41%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware254%44%62%53%55%
Florida348%49%51%47%49%
Georgia342%55%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho233%62%36%30%28%
Illinois256%41%62%55%55%
Indiana239%57%50%39%41%
Iowa348%49%54%49%49%
Kansas238%60%42%37%37%
Kentucky339%59%41%40%41%
Louisiana140%59%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland258%35%62%56%57%
Massachusetts156%44%62%62%60%
Michigan150%49%57%51%51%
Minnesota149%49%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri343%53%49%46%47%
Montana0NoneNone47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada246%52%55%48%46%
New Hampshire348%48%54%50%47%
New Jersey354%39%57%53%56%
New Mexico250%47%57%49%48%
New York357%40%63%58%60%
North Carolina347%48%50%44%43%
North Dakota144%54%45%36%33%
Ohio344%51%51%49%46%
Oklahoma237%60%34%34%38%
Oregon253%44%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania446%50%54%51%51%
Rhode Island157%41%63%59%61%
South Carolina346%48%45%41%41%
South Dakota243%53%45%38%38%
Tennessee239%57%42%43%47%
Texas338%56%44%38%38%
Utah234%65%34%26%26%
Vermont262%36%67%59%51%
Virginia246%53%53%45%44%
Washington253%45%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin346%50%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL48% (47%)48% (49%)53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #70 on: May 08, 2010, 11:33:40 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2010, 03:38:27 PM by Sam Spade »

Obama Job Approval chart - RASMUSSEN LAST 3 POLLS
Updated May 8, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- This chart covers an average of the last two/three Rasmussen polls within the last six months, or simply the last poll if no poll exists in that time frame.
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Massachusetts Special polls ignored.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama142%58%39%37%42%
Alaska0NoneNone38%36%28%
Arizona339%59%45%44%45%
Arkansas337%61%39%45%46%
California358%41%61%54%53%
Colorado344%56%54%47%42%
Connecticut354%45%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware352%48%62%53%55%
Florida347%52%51%47%49%
Georgia342%56%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho130%70%36%30%28%
Illinois358%41%62%55%55%
Indiana340%59%50%39%41%
Iowa348%51%54%49%49%
Kansas142%58%42%37%37%
Kentucky339%60%41%40%41%
Louisiana338%61%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland259%40%62%56%57%
Massachusetts255%45%62%62%60%
Michigan249%50%57%51%51%
Minnesota351%48%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri341%57%49%46%47%
Montana0NoneNone47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada345%55%55%48%46%
New Hampshire349%51%54%50%47%
New Jersey153%47%57%53%56%
New Mexico154%46%57%49%48%
New York356%44%63%58%60%
North Carolina342%57%50%44%43%
North Dakota342%56%45%36%33%
Ohio347%52%51%49%46%
Oklahoma138%62%34%34%38%
Oregon255%45%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania347%52%54%51%51%
Rhode Island360%39%63%59%61%
South Carolina145%54%45%41%41%
South Dakota343%56%45%38%38%
Tennessee136%62%42%43%47%
Texas340%59%44%38%38%
Utah0NoneNone34%26%26%
Vermont160%39%67%59%51%
Virginia249%51%53%45%44%
Washington353%46%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin349%51%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL48% (48%)51% (51%)53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,562


« Reply #71 on: May 08, 2010, 11:41:49 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2010, 03:38:52 PM by Sam Spade »

Obama Job Approval chart - RASMUSSEN LAST POLL
Updated May 8, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- This chart covers the last Rasmussen Poll in each state so long as under six months old.
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Massachusetts Special polls ignored.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama142%58%39%37%42%
Alaska0NoneNone38%36%28%
Arizona134%64%45%44%45%
Arkansas135%63%39%45%46%
California160%39%61%54%53%
Colorado145%55%54%47%42%
Connecticut154%43%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware154%46%62%53%55%
Florida147%53%51%47%49%
Georgia141%57%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho130%70%36%30%28%
Illinois161%39%62%55%55%
Indiana143%56%50%39%41%
Iowa148%51%54%49%49%
Kansas142%58%42%37%37%
Kentucky141%59%41%40%41%
Louisiana140%59%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland159%39%62%56%57%
Massachusetts156%44%62%62%60%
Michigan150%49%57%51%51%
Minnesota149%49%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri142%56%49%46%47%
Montana0NoneNone47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada148%51%55%48%46%
New Hampshire149%50%54%50%47%
New Jersey153%47%57%53%56%
New Mexico154%46%57%49%48%
New York154%46%63%58%60%
North Carolina144%56%50%44%43%
North Dakota144%54%45%36%33%
Ohio148%51%51%49%46%
Oklahoma138%62%34%34%38%
Oregon159%40%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania148%51%54%51%51%
Rhode Island157%41%63%59%61%
South Carolina145%54%45%41%41%
South Dakota145%54%45%38%38%
Tennessee136%62%42%43%47%
Texas142%58%44%38%38%
Utah129%69%34%26%26%
Vermont160%39%67%59%51%
Virginia148%51%53%45%44%
Washington155%45%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin148%52%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL49% (48%)50% (51%)53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,562


« Reply #72 on: May 08, 2010, 11:49:42 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2010, 03:39:49 PM by Sam Spade »

Obama Job Approval chart - ALL NON-RASMUSSEN POLLS
Updated May 8, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- All polls per state done in last six weeks (must be started after March 29 for this week), maximum one poll per firm.
- Other polls done in last six months can be included, but no more than three polls per state can be outside the six week envelope and if more than three polls done in last six weeks, no polls before that.  (also if one poll done in last six weeks, then only two can be included in six month period, two polls, then one, etc).
- No favorable polls; no excellent/good/fair/poor polls; no Rutgers-Eagleton/Strategic Vision/any other questionable company; no partisan/internals, my judgment as to what is prevails
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Massachusetts Special polls ignored.
- No Rasmussen polls in this one.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama239%58%39%37%42%
Alaska137%56%38%36%28%
Arizona247%50%45%44%45%
Arkansas238%60%39%45%46%
California357%36%61%54%53%
Colorado147%50%54%47%42%
Connecticut254%40%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware153%41%62%53%55%
Florida248%48%51%47%49%
Georgia242%55%47%41%43%
Hawaii0NoneNone72%54%56%
Idaho135%54%36%30%28%
Illinois150%42%62%55%55%
Indiana134%57%50%39%41%
Iowa248%48%54%49%49%
Kansas134%62%42%37%37%
Kentucky238%59%41%40%41%
Louisiana0NoneNone40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland256%30%62%56%57%
Massachusetts0NoneNone62%62%60%
Michigan0NoneNone57%51%51%
Minnesota0NoneNone54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri244%52%49%46%47%
Montana137%53%47%39%33%
Nebraska0NoneNone42%33%33%
Nevada144%52%55%48%46%
New Hampshire248%48%54%50%47%
New Jersey354%39%57%53%56%
New Mexico145%48%57%49%48%
New York259%37%63%58%60%
North Carolina347%47%50%44%43%
North Dakota0NoneNone45%36%33%
Ohio342%52%51%49%46%
Oklahoma136%58%34%34%38%
Oregon147%48%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania345%50%54%51%51%
Rhode Island0NoneNone63%59%61%
South Carolina247%45%45%41%41%
South Dakota141%52%45%38%38%
Tennessee142%51%42%43%47%
Texas237%55%44%38%38%
Utah138%60%34%26%26%
Vermont163%33%67%59%51%
Virginia144%54%53%45%44%
Washington151%45%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin346%49%56%50%48%
Wyoming0NoneNone33%29%28%
NATIONAL48% (47%)46% (47%)53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,562


« Reply #73 on: May 08, 2010, 03:37:20 PM »

is that for his entire presidency? I doubt he has a 47% in AZ and SC but only 45% in PA. How old are those numbers? Rasmussen is the most accurate too. Look at their data for 2004 and 2008. They didn't miss a single state in 2004.

Read the methodology.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,562


« Reply #74 on: May 08, 2010, 03:37:55 PM »

is that for his entire presidency? I doubt he has a 47% in AZ and SC but only 45% in PA. How old are those numbers? Rasmussen is the most accurate too. Look at their data for 2004 and 2008. They didn't miss a single state in 2004.

Read the methodology.

Also, Rasmussen missed states in 2008 (and I'm pretty sure 2004 too).
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