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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030736 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #4575 on: April 19, 2010, 10:49:39 pm »

I find a 50% approval of Obama in Florida hard to believe , just as I found recent 44% approvals in places like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin hard to believe. But he is doing better in the South (except in Arkansas and Kentucky). Take good looks at Alabama, North Carolina, and Texas.

Could Florida's result be related to the number of retirees? Healthcare issues tend to resound with older voters, although perhaps many of them have insurance, so maybe not. Perhaps Alabama, North Carolina, Texas, etc have more people likely to benefit from public healthcare, whereas some of the northern states may have a greater proportion of people who already have insurance and don't want to see their tax dollars going towards that.

Just thinking... this sort of economic policy focus could be the realignment we speculate about every now and then. Recent elections have been focused on social issues - hence the South being strongly Republican and the North being strongly Democrat, but obviously between the GFC and Healthcare debates, perhaps people are focusing more on the economic debate. That would make the Democrats more competitive in the South and places like Kansas and other areas with more voters with below-average incomes, while making Republicans more competitive in places like New England. I'm probably talking rubbish, but just thought I'd put it out there for discussion.

The donut hole is one of the first things that seniors see being (partially) phased away through the 2010 legislation.

As it is, seniors pay the first $295 of prescription costs, 25% of that between $295 and $2700, and the entire amount between $2750 and $6254, before the government picks up 95% of the amount over $6155. People with chronic conditions (diabetes is a prime example) can have their money eaten.

It's worth noting that although Florida is near the national average in income, the rest of the South (including Texas)... is below the national average. Poverty itself is a health hazard in its own right. Poor people are likely to get better access to health care.

What is good for poor blacks is also good for poor whites. Obama did badly with poor Southern whites in 2008, most likely on "cultural" issues -- contrast Clinton and Carter. 
   
haha "cultural issues". A nice way of saying that they didn't want to vote for the black guy.

It could also be that Barack Obama is a liberal Yankee instead of a Southern moderate. Kerry did almost as badly in the South in 2004, too, except from Virginia to Florida. 
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« Reply #4576 on: April 19, 2010, 10:53:38 pm »

I find a 50% approval of Obama in Florida hard to believe , just as I found recent 44% approvals in places like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin hard to believe. But he is doing better in the South (except in Arkansas and Kentucky). Take good looks at Alabama, North Carolina, and Texas.

Could Florida's result be related to the number of retirees? Healthcare issues tend to resound with older voters, although perhaps many of them have insurance, so maybe not. Perhaps Alabama, North Carolina, Texas, etc have more people likely to benefit from public healthcare, whereas some of the northern states may have a greater proportion of people who already have insurance and don't want to see their tax dollars going towards that.

Just thinking... this sort of economic policy focus could be the realignment we speculate about every now and then. Recent elections have been focused on social issues - hence the South being strongly Republican and the North being strongly Democrat, but obviously between the GFC and Healthcare debates, perhaps people are focusing more on the economic debate. That would make the Democrats more competitive in the South and places like Kansas and other areas with more voters with below-average incomes, while making Republicans more competitive in places like New England. I'm probably talking rubbish, but just thought I'd put it out there for discussion.

The donut hole is one of the first things that seniors see being (partially) phased away through the 2010 legislation.

As it is, seniors pay the first $295 of prescription costs, 25% of that between $295 and $2700, and the entire amount between $2750 and $6254, before the government picks up 95% of the amount over $6155. People with chronic conditions (diabetes is a prime example) can have their money eaten.

It's worth noting that although Florida is near the national average in income, the rest of the South (including Texas)... is below the national average. Poverty itself is a health hazard in its own right. Poor people are likely to get better access to health care.

What is good for poor blacks is also good for poor whites. Obama did badly with poor Southern whites in 2008, most likely on "cultural" issues -- contrast Clinton and Carter. 
   
haha "cultural issues". A nice way of saying that they didn't want to vote for the black guy.

It could also be that Barack Obama is a liberal Yankee instead of a Southern moderate. Kerry did almost as badly in the South in 2004, too, except from Virginia to Florida. 

good point.
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Smid
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« Reply #4577 on: April 20, 2010, 04:22:23 am »

I find a 50% approval of Obama in Florida hard to believe , just as I found recent 44% approvals in places like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin hard to believe. But he is doing better in the South (except in Arkansas and Kentucky). Take good looks at Alabama, North Carolina, and Texas.

Could Florida's result be related to the number of retirees? Healthcare issues tend to resound with older voters, although perhaps many of them have insurance, so maybe not. Perhaps Alabama, North Carolina, Texas, etc have more people likely to benefit from public healthcare, whereas some of the northern states may have a greater proportion of people who already have insurance and don't want to see their tax dollars going towards that.

Just thinking... this sort of economic policy focus could be the realignment we speculate about every now and then. Recent elections have been focused on social issues - hence the South being strongly Republican and the North being strongly Democrat, but obviously between the GFC and Healthcare debates, perhaps people are focusing more on the economic debate. That would make the Democrats more competitive in the South and places like Kansas and other areas with more voters with below-average incomes, while making Republicans more competitive in places like New England. I'm probably talking rubbish, but just thought I'd put it out there for discussion.

The donut hole is one of the first things that seniors see being (partially) phased away through the 2010 legislation.

As it is, seniors pay the first $295 of prescription costs, 25% of that between $295 and $2700, and the entire amount between $2750 and $6254, before the government picks up 95% of the amount over $6155. People with chronic conditions (diabetes is a prime example) can have their money eaten.

It's worth noting that although Florida is near the national average in income, the rest of the South (including Texas)... is below the national average. Poverty itself is a health hazard in its own right. Poor people are likely to get better access to health care.

What is good for poor blacks is also good for poor whites. Obama did badly with poor Southern whites in 2008, most likely on "cultural" issues -- contrast Clinton and Carter.     



Yes - exactly what I was trying to say/ask.

Do you all think if Obama flips Texas to Democrat (the largest surprise we could think of probably), should the Republican Party really reimagine themselves?

Can't see it happening any time soon... even if the South starts trending back towards the Democrats (if for the reasons I floated earlier), it's likely that the Republicans will start to do better in other parts of the country. There is no "grand coalition" that encompasses the entire country and leads to a perpetual majority for either party.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4578 on: April 20, 2010, 09:29:38 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +1

Disapprove 50% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.

If it holds, good news for Obama.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4579 on: April 20, 2010, 12:08:14 pm »
« Edited: April 20, 2010, 03:01:14 pm by pbrower2a »

What do you know? Quinnipiac and Rasmussen essentially agree on Florida!

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I see no need to show a fresh map.

I would like to see Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin again.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4580 on: April 20, 2010, 03:00:08 pm »
« Edited: April 20, 2010, 03:02:52 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP, New Hampshire, April 17-18

New Hampshire Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not Sure.......................................................... 5%





Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas,  Georgia, and Michigan only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

35 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.

Georgia is favorability, and 45% favorability suggests about a 46% vote. 41% approval would have about the same effect.



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  132
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  40
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  80
white                        too close to call  22
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   55
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 44  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.


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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4581 on: April 20, 2010, 03:14:25 pm »

Folks, you're trying to overexplain what's going on - which is rather obvious, when you think about it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4582 on: April 20, 2010, 04:44:47 pm »


Gallup Obama National

Approve:  49 +1

Disapprove:  45 -1

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4583 on: April 20, 2010, 07:01:41 pm »

Folks, you're trying to overexplain what's going on - which is rather obvious, when you think about it.

Sure. But we can see things happening as the polls show. Are approvals tending toward the mean? Do public appearances matter? Are people catching onto or continuing to reject legislation? Is interstate polarization becoming more or less intense?

I may be going off on a limb here, but President Obama had weak appearances in some statewide polls because he doesn't dare make appearances in those states. Example: Pennsylvania has a hot primary on May 18. President Obama dares not show favor to either Arlen Specter or to Joe Sestak. Once the primary is over, such will be no problem, as he will want to give every bit of campaign assistance to the winner of the Democratic primary. Likewise, Michigan has a hot gubernatorial primary. It is generally a good idea for a President to stay clear of primary contests. The general election is fair game, though.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4584 on: April 20, 2010, 11:22:28 pm »

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I may be fine-tuning things more than Nate Silver. I see the Presidential campaign as the equivalent of 50 statewide races, one District-wide races, and five Congressional races. President Obama's campaign will select those races that matter most.  If his approval is under 40% in a State now, he is unlikely to challenge for that state; if he sees himself winning 55% he isn't going to pile on the percentages by design. I may unwittingly be using my projected margin of win as a proxy for likelihood of a win, as in "New York -- sure thing" and "Utah -- sure loss". 
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Iosif
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« Reply #4585 on: April 21, 2010, 04:32:48 am »

Folks, you're trying to overexplain what's going on - which is rather obvious, when you think about it.

No, please, be cryptic so we can guess and marvel at what a man with such superior intellect and political instinct such as yourself is thinking.

Twat.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4586 on: April 21, 2010, 09:07:56 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% -2

Disapprove 52% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +2.

Strange pattern for the 'bots.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4587 on: April 21, 2010, 09:34:21 am »

Weird poll. It is taken two days after another poll by the same polling company, and it is released a week later. Maybe Arizona politics is weird these days. Maybe a 4% swing between samples in a politically-polarized state is just :one of those things". 

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Rules are rules even in a state going into a "winter of discontent" with almost every elected official.





Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas,  Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

35 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.

Georgia is favorability, and 45% favorability suggests about a 46% vote. 41% approval would have about the same effect.



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  132
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  40
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  80
white                        too close to call  22
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   55
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
  44 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.



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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4588 on: April 21, 2010, 09:53:20 am »

Folks, you're trying to overexplain what's going on - which is rather obvious, when you think about it.

No, please, be cryptic so we can guess and marvel at what a man with such superior intellect and political instinct such as yourself is thinking.

Twat.

You know that I sometimes make my responses to get these types of comments.

1) Nationally, Obama has been at dead-even (X=X) in approvals for the last six months.  I see no change.  While it is true that his approval went slightly below dead-even in the heart of the health-care thing, that was most likely just hyped-up Republican anti-enthusiasm.

The key thing that has occurred since the healthcare debate is that Democrats who support the Prez are more energized (explains the Rasmussen movement) and conservatives are identifying.  In other words, the numbers haven't changed, but things are more partisanly polarized.

2) With state numbers, you always have to be careful about news events that move the polls by causing one side to become depressed or over-enthused (see Florida, Arizona in the past couple of days); bad polls (see an university poll); and states which are historically difficult/impossible to poll (Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin).

That being said, over the long-term, the numbers tend to work out and tend to match what's going on nationally.  You just can't go nuts because one poll says one thing that's unexpected.

3) The state polling suggests that the populace is reverting to its 1996-2004 evenness in partisan support.  Not necessarily the same patterns, of course.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #4589 on: April 21, 2010, 12:49:05 pm »

Rasmussen in North Carolina

41% approve

57% disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_carolina/election_2010_north_carolina_senate
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4590 on: April 21, 2010, 01:53:15 pm »

Weird poll. It is taken two days after another poll by the same polling company, and it is released a week later. Maybe Arizona politics is weird these days. Maybe a 4% swing between samples in a politically-polarized state is just :one of those things".  

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It's probably a wrong release.

The real numbers are:

"In the 2008 election, Obama lost to favorite son McCain 54% to 45%. Forty-two percent (42%) now approve of Obama's performance as president, with 29% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove, including 51% who Strongly Disapprove. This is roughly comparable to Obama's job approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4591 on: April 21, 2010, 01:57:13 pm »

California (Rasmussen)Sad

60% Approve
39% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in California was conducted April 19, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/california/toplines/toplines_2010_california_governor_april_19_2010
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J. J.
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« Reply #4592 on: April 21, 2010, 02:32:59 pm »


Gallup Obama National

Approve:  49 u

Disapprove:  45 u


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4593 on: April 21, 2010, 03:01:24 pm »

North Carolina. Ouch!

I am going to revert to  the April 13 poll in Arizona because the Rasmussen poll on April 15 poll was released almost a week later than it was taken. Heck, the Republican politicians are doing badly enough that they look vulnerable.





Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas,  Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

35 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.

Georgia is favorability, and 45% favorability suggests about a 46% vote. 41% approval would have about the same effect.



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  132
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  40
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  64
white                        too close to call  22
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
  44 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.




[/quote]
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4594 on: April 21, 2010, 06:04:03 pm »

The Arizona poll is a new poll, folks.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4595 on: April 21, 2010, 06:07:03 pm »

The Arizona poll is a new poll, folks.

There will be others. The "Cops as Immigration Enforcers" will create much polling activity.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #4596 on: April 21, 2010, 07:31:56 pm »

The Arizona poll is a new poll, folks.
There will be others. The "Cops as Immigration Enforcers" will create much polling activity.

Translation: I don't like that one, let's wait for one with better approval.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4597 on: April 21, 2010, 07:39:58 pm »

North Carolina also has a very high unemployment rate and probably doesn't give high marks to any politician representing it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4598 on: April 22, 2010, 08:40:57 am »
« Edited: April 22, 2010, 11:58:13 am by pbrower2a »

Florida goes back substantially:

Florida Survey of 500 Likely Voters:

Conducted April 21, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s

been doing?

33% Strongly approve

11% Somewhat approve

8% Somewhat disapprove

46% Strongly disapprove

2% Not sure


As for Arizona, it seems to be taking the Fascist route on civil liberties, so maybe 36% approval for Obama is an over-estimate.

Wusconsin 48-52 (Rasmussen, "likely voters"




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas,  Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

35 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.

Georgia is favorability, and 45% favorability suggests about a 46% vote. 41% approval would have about the same effect.



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  132
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  12
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 74
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   60
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 55  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.




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J. J.
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« Reply #4599 on: April 22, 2010, 08:43:03 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% u

Disapprove 52% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Two unchanged polls, with yesterday's Gallup.

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