The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Zarn
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« Reply #4175 on: March 18, 2010, 03:05:27 PM »

Obama is 99% approve to 1% disapprove in Chris Mathews' pants.

Yesterday and since the beginning of the presidency, it was 100% approve or higher and 0% disapprove or lower.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4176 on: March 18, 2010, 08:50:15 PM »

Obama is 99% approve to 1% disapprove in Chris Mathews' pants.

Yesterday and since the beginning of the presidency, it was 100% approve or higher and 0% disapprove or lower.

LOL.  Smiley
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JerryBrown2010
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« Reply #4177 on: March 18, 2010, 09:03:53 PM »

Obama is now getting more disapproval then approval on real clear politics for the first time.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4178 on: March 19, 2010, 12:39:19 AM »

Obama favorable ratings in key swing districts according to GOP firm Ayres, McHenry & Associates (400 Likely Voters in each district, MoE=4.9%, March 8-10, 2010):

AZ-08: 47% Favorable, 48% Unfavorable (2008: McCain 52%, Obama 46%)

CO-04: 41% Favorable, 52% Unfavorable (2008: McCain 50%, Obama 49%)

FL-02: 39% Favorable, 55% Unfavorable (2008: McCain 54%, Obama 45%)

NC-08: 46% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable (2008: Obama 52%, McCain 47%)

NV-03: 46% Favorable, 50% Unfavorable (2008: Obama 55%, McCain 43%)

NY-24: 47% Favorable, 43% Unfavorable (2008: Obama 50%, McCain 48%)

OH-01: 47% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable (2008: Obama 55%, McCain 44%)

PA-04: 44% Favorable, 48% Unfavorable (2008: McCain 55%, Obama 44%)

TX-17: 36% Favorable, 54% Unfavorable (2008: McCain 67%, Obama 32%)

VA-02: 50% Favorable, 43% Unfavorable (2008: Obama 50%, McCain 48%)

http://innovation.cq.com/atlas/district_08

Some of these seem hilariously random. Ah well, probably meaningless anyway.
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #4179 on: March 19, 2010, 12:47:56 AM »

SurveyUSA

Ohio
42% Approve
52% Disapprove

Indiana
49% Approve
40% Disapprove

Washington
46% Approve
49% Disapprove

Oregon
48% Approve
50% Disapprove
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4180 on: March 19, 2010, 12:53:46 AM »

Oh, you comedian, you.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4181 on: March 19, 2010, 12:55:37 AM »

SurveyUSA

Ohio
42% Approve
52% Disapprove

Indiana
49% Approve
40% Disapprove

Washington
46% Approve
49% Disapprove

Oregon
48% Approve
50% Disapprove

Where did you get the Indiana numbers from ?

There`s also

Kansas: 37% Approve, 61% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0fef027f-c866-4176-ad0d-a55ae7485458

California: 52% Approve, 44% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=51592b79-0995-4b0c-a664-2a571b0c6671
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4182 on: March 19, 2010, 12:59:09 AM »

Wisconsin (Rasmussen)Sad

52% Approve
48% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 16, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/toplines/toplines_2010_wisconsin_senate_march_16_2010
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4183 on: March 19, 2010, 01:00:38 AM »

Connecticut (Quinnipiac)Sad

54% Approve
42% Disapprove

From March 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,451 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 549 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points and 387 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1433
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4184 on: March 19, 2010, 01:11:12 AM »

SurveyUSA

Ohio
42% Approve
52% Disapprove

Indiana
49% Approve
40% Disapprove

Washington
46% Approve
49% Disapprove

Oregon
48% Approve
50% Disapprove

Where did you get the Indiana numbers from ?

There`s also

Kansas: 37% Approve, 61% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0fef027f-c866-4176-ad0d-a55ae7485458

California: 52% Approve, 44% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=51592b79-0995-4b0c-a664-2a571b0c6671

49/40 Indiana and 42/52 Ohio look like opposites of what I would ever expect, and no way is Obama have more approval in Indiana than either Oregon or Washington. I can';t accept those at face value.

I can accept those for California (as part of an average with a poll from today) and Kansas... but that is it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4185 on: March 19, 2010, 01:13:00 AM »

SurveyUSA

Ohio
42% Approve
52% Disapprove

Indiana
49% Approve
40% Disapprove

Washington
46% Approve
49% Disapprove

Oregon
48% Approve
50% Disapprove

Where did you get the Indiana numbers from ?

There`s also

Kansas: 37% Approve, 61% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0fef027f-c866-4176-ad0d-a55ae7485458

California: 52% Approve, 44% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=51592b79-0995-4b0c-a664-2a571b0c6671

49/40 Indiana and 42/52 Ohio look like opposites of what I would ever expect, and no way is Obama have more approval in Indiana than either Oregon or Washington. I can';t accept those at face value.

I can accept those for California (as part of an average with a poll from today) and Kansas... but that is it.

I think he just fooled us with the Indiana numbers, because I can`t find them on the SUSA page. All other numbers posted are true and on the SUSA page.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4186 on: March 19, 2010, 01:16:42 AM »

California, Wisconsin (averages); Connecticut, Kansas new. Those introduced by Vanderblubb without documentation are rejected.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.
 



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4187 on: March 19, 2010, 01:23:01 AM »

California, Wisconsin (averages); Connecticut, Kansas new. Those introduced by Vanderblubb without documentation are rejected.

Oregon:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=09180fd7-8892-4790-910a-ad64f68bbaba

Washington:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=482c9ab6-3bd6-4567-857f-e141d4410421

Ohio:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1e1c35c8-2478-4faf-88ae-b10f35134897
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Badger
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« Reply #4188 on: March 19, 2010, 07:28:47 AM »

Strategic Vision is back !

Georgia:

37% Approve
50% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted March 5-8, 2010 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_031510.htm

The huge gap between approval and disapproval indicates the uselessness of that poll. I'd have to show it with the letter "S" (spurious, suspicious, screwy, shady)... except that such would crowd out another and more reliable poll.

I will not use this one.  

I usually don't even post in this thread, but I just want to clarify for my own amusement: You don't want to include this SV poll of Georgia, showing Obama at a "huge" -13, because he couldn't possibly be underwater in Georgia?

Strategic Vision is now also - for the first time ever - publishing crosstabs:

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B_KEK8-LWmzhMWQ1YmZhYzMtMmQ0ZC00MDRiLTk4NGQtOWZiZjhmZWVkYWU4&hl=en

Interestingly, 22% of GA Blacks are undecided about Obama`s approval, while just 8% of Whites are.

"22% of GA blacks undecided"? I may've spoke too soon in support of this poll.

Obama is getting some criticism from the Black Caucus.  It could be the Uber liberal s in the Black community.

Could be, but we can hardly doubt 99% of these "undecided" African-American voters will turn out and vote for Obama in 2012.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4189 on: March 19, 2010, 07:37:27 AM »

The Indiana fake numbers were just to make pbrower look like an idiot (think SOUTH CAROLINA) and naturally he obliged since he is one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4190 on: March 19, 2010, 08:31:38 AM »

The Indiana fake numbers were just to make pbrower look like an idiot (think SOUTH CAROLINA) and naturally he obliged since he is one.

1. I distrust Vanderblubb.  

2. The most recent South Carolina poll shows something like 48/40. Because the approval figure is consistent with other polls I don't consider it spurious. It's the low disapproval that is shaky, and it is possible that with the high number of undecided, it could be anything from 60/40 to 48/52. I would have accepted 48/52, which is in line, but I would not accept 60/40. I would also accept 51/48, which isn't out of line. I would also have accepted 44/56.

Something funny has been going on in South Carolina, and it is current Republican politicians. No, they aren't funny in the sense that Al Frankin was funny in Saturday Night Live sketches -- it's funny, strange, as in the sort of behavior that precedes being rejected in bids for re-election. Such is being shown in polls involving gubernatorial and senatorial races.  

Abuse of power, ungentlemanly conduct, and extremism are suggest vulnerability at the next election.    
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J. J.
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« Reply #4191 on: March 19, 2010, 08:44:19 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%

Disapprove 55%


"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4192 on: March 19, 2010, 10:53:07 AM »

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And what that has to do with whether or not anyone approves of Barack Obama, well, that we're still working on figuring out. But when we do, oh boy howdy will you hear it here first!

Meanwhile, I remain suspicious of polling numbers that show Obama at, like, nearly -10 net favorables in Georgia and Ohio. Cause, you know, those numbers are kinda ugly and I don't like them. Also, we think the Georgia one was just plain made up, crosstabs be damned.

[clears throat]

Next up on Pbrower's World: Factoring in the Age Wave: Why a map showing Barack Obama to be net unfavorable in well over 300 electoral votes worth of states means he'll win re-election in 2012. You won't want to miss it!

[cut to commercial][/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4193 on: March 19, 2010, 12:13:37 PM »

South Carolina is one state, and it is the only one in which the state's GOP pols are so egregious in arrogance, racism, or bad behavior.  What I think applies to South Carolina does not apply to Alabama.  The GOP in South Carolina acts like a Party about to be turned out of office. South Carolina may be more conservative than America as a whole, but even a very conservative polity has its limitations.

Polls showing Obama support in the high 40s have appeared for several months in South Carolina. They look anomalous and invite examination. But they are consistent! Consistency in time and between pollsters suggests change from one norm to another. Is such change permanent? Who knows? Maybe the GOP will get its stuff together in South Carolina in time for the November elections and give a resounding victory for Senator James DeMint.

If another state that has normally voted Democratic for a long time -- let us say Michigan -- had an incumbent governor with a sex scandal, a left-wing Senator operating on the lunatic fringe, a Lieutenant Governor mouthing off Marxist claptrap, and a Congressman shouting off an insult at the President (in 2006 that would have been Dubya) in the State of the Union Speech, would you have seen trouble for the Democrats?

.... Net favorables for some states have been jumping around. So it has been in some states with 15+ electoral votes -- Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. That happens. For now that is statistical noise. If it gets more consistent, then I might see a trend.

Age wave? Show me that it isn't a reality. Young adults  -- voters under 30 -- are now much more liberal and Democratic-leaning  than voters over 30. Can we expect the same of voters that will be voting for the first time for President in 2012? They have had the same educational influences and they have been exposed to the same mass culture. Their economic experiences have been much the same except that the youngest will have known the economic meltdown of 2008 as mid-teens instead of as adults. The youngest adults generally have little cause to be political conservatives. They are paid badly for their abilities, they are often heavily in debt (so they have no cause for support for deflationary policies associated with the GOP),  tax cuts are for the benefit of people other than themselves, and they are not drifting toward Christian fundamentalism. They still remember George W. Bush as a political disaster, and they don't know Bill Clinton very well except as an ex-President of the United States and will have no memory of the Cold War.  Remember: voters of November 2012 will have been born as late as November 1994.   

In the mid-1980s, an age wave would have shown a tendency toward the Republican Party and conservatism. Younger voters in their 20s were supplanting older, more liberal voters (New Deal Democrats) born early in the 20th Century and making the electorate more conservative and pro-GOP.  People who thought that Ronald Reagan was just a political fad discovered otherwise.  It works both ways, but at different times.

.........

Of course it is still possible that Barack Obama will prove a destructive failure as President, that youth will get some "sense" and recognize that what is best for tycoons and executives is best for them irrespective of the implicit sacrifices for anyone not already rich, that they will come to recognize FoX  News as the only reliable source for televised news, and that America may soon have a youth-based religious revival that turns former liberals into hard-line conservatives, and even the reputation of our 43rd President will be restored to an image of greatness. If most of that comes to pass, then the Democrats are going to be thrown to the curb politically in 2010 and 2012 because no campaign strategy and no oratory can undo the damage or the social change. .

But at least as likely, Barack Obama will get his pet healthcare reform passed; he will bring about major reforms that will change America for the better (next comes the financial industry better at grabbing wealth than at creating it or even protecting it); he will get credit for graceful exits from Iraq and Afghanistan; he will get to ride an economic upturn that showed signs of happening only in February 2009.

Healthcare reform is his Achilles heel so far. The lucrative industry wants no challenges to its fast-rising revenues despite decaying service. It has been funding a strident campaign on behalf of what we now have (profits-first, people just often enough to keep people from rebelling) against every Democratic member of Congress. That campaign stops once the bill is passed or defeated.       

   

     

 
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #4194 on: March 19, 2010, 01:01:40 PM »

Things aren't looking good right now for Obama.

He trails in Washington!?!?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4195 on: March 19, 2010, 01:17:33 PM »

Things aren't looking good right now for Obama.

He trails in Washington!?!?

Most of the newest polls that I have (Wisconsin excepted) are by SurveyUSA, which gives a bigger edge to Republicans than does Rasmussen, and lots of people complain about Rasmussen.

We are also in the last days of the legislative process concerning health care reform, and the lucrative industry has been funding a strident campaign against any change in the profits-first, people-as-convenient system that we now have. Did you expect objectivity or impartiality in the related ads? It's pure scare. We have the world's most expensive health-care system in the world, and we get mediocre results for those who do sort-of-OK with it, and dreadful results for those priced out of it. 

Once that is over, that scare campaign stops, and so does the erosion of Obama support in the polls.

 
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Zarn
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« Reply #4196 on: March 19, 2010, 01:26:08 PM »

Not many complain about Rasmussen, only hacks do.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4197 on: March 19, 2010, 01:55:28 PM »

South Carolina is one state, and it is the only one in which the state's GOP pols are so egregious in arrogance, racism, or bad behavior.  What I think applies to South Carolina does not apply to Alabama.  The GOP in South Carolina acts like a Party about to be turned out of office. South Carolina may be more conservative than America as a whole, but even a very conservative polity has its limitations.

Polls showing Obama support in the high 40s have appeared for several months in South Carolina. They look anomalous and invite examination. But they are consistent! Consistency in time and between pollsters suggests change from one norm to another. Is such change permanent? Who knows? Maybe the GOP will get its stuff together in South Carolina in time for the November elections and give a resounding victory for Senator James DeMint.

If another state that has normally voted Democratic for a long time -- let us say Michigan -- had an incumbent governor with a sex scandal, a left-wing Senator operating on the lunatic fringe, a Lieutenant Governor mouthing off Marxist claptrap, and a Congressman shouting off an insult at the President (in 2006 that would have been Dubya) in the State of the Union Speech, would you have seen trouble for the Democrats?

.... Net favorables for some states have been jumping around. So it has been in some states with 15+ electoral votes -- Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. That happens. For now that is statistical noise. If it gets more consistent, then I might see a trend.

Age wave? Show me that it isn't a reality. Young adults  -- voters under 30 -- are now much more liberal and Democratic-leaning  than voters over 30. Can we expect the same of voters that will be voting for the first time for President in 2012? They have had the same educational influences and they have been exposed to the same mass culture. Their economic experiences have been much the same except that the youngest will have known the economic meltdown of 2008 as mid-teens instead of as adults. The youngest adults generally have little cause to be political conservatives. They are paid badly for their abilities, they are often heavily in debt (so they have no cause for support for deflationary policies associated with the GOP),  tax cuts are for the benefit of people other than themselves, and they are not drifting toward Christian fundamentalism. They still remember George W. Bush as a political disaster, and they don't know Bill Clinton very well except as an ex-President of the United States and will have no memory of the Cold War.  Remember: voters of November 2012 will have been born as late as November 1994.   

In the mid-1980s, an age wave would have shown a tendency toward the Republican Party and conservatism. Younger voters in their 20s were supplanting older, more liberal voters (New Deal Democrats) born early in the 20th Century and making the electorate more conservative and pro-GOP.  People who thought that Ronald Reagan was just a political fad discovered otherwise.  It works both ways, but at different times.

.........

Of course it is still possible that Barack Obama will prove a destructive failure as President, that youth will get some "sense" and recognize that what is best for tycoons and executives is best for them irrespective of the implicit sacrifices for anyone not already rich, that they will come to recognize FoX  News as the only reliable source for televised news, and that America may soon have a youth-based religious revival that turns former liberals into hard-line conservatives, and even the reputation of our 43rd President will be restored to an image of greatness. If most of that comes to pass, then the Democrats are going to be thrown to the curb politically in 2010 and 2012 because no campaign strategy and no oratory can undo the damage or the social change. .

But at least as likely, Barack Obama will get his pet healthcare reform passed; he will bring about major reforms that will change America for the better (next comes the financial industry better at grabbing wealth than at creating it or even protecting it); he will get credit for graceful exits from Iraq and Afghanistan; he will get to ride an economic upturn that showed signs of happening only in February 2009.

Healthcare reform is his Achilles heel so far. The lucrative industry wants no challenges to its fast-rising revenues despite decaying service. It has been funding a strident campaign on behalf of what we now have (profits-first, people just often enough to keep people from rebelling) against every Democratic member of Congress. That campaign stops once the bill is passed or defeated.       
 

A wild PBROWER appears!

PBROWER used wall of text!

It's super effective!

MR. MODERATE faints!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4198 on: March 19, 2010, 02:31:31 PM »

Georgia (Rasmussen)Sad

44% Approve
54% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Georgia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 17, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/georgia/toplines/toplines_georgia_governor_march_17_2010
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4199 on: March 19, 2010, 03:02:07 PM »

California (Field)Sad

52% Approve
37% Disapprove

The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll survey completed March 9-15, 2010 among a random sample of 503 registered voters statewide. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish with live interviewers working from Field Research’s central location telephone interviewing facility.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2332.pdf
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