The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3950 on: February 23, 2010, 07:46:53 AM »

I don't understand how his approval can be so low in the states yet still at around 48/48 (according to pollster) nationally? If it's at 44/52 in Ohio it seems like it should be near 44/52 nationally.

Why? Ohio was about 3.6 points more Republican in 2008 than the national average, so that number makes perfect sense.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #3951 on: February 23, 2010, 08:19:03 AM »

I don't understand how his approval can be so low in the states yet still at around 48/48 (according to pollster) nationally?

It helps that New York, California, and Illinois are some of Obama's strongest states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3952 on: February 23, 2010, 09:20:19 AM »

I don't understand how his approval can be so low in the states yet still at around 48/48 (according to pollster) nationally?

It helps that New York, California, and Illinois are some of Obama's strongest states.

But he is doing badly in Pennsylvania this time around.

The political polarization between states is roughly the same as it has been since at least 2000. President Obama remains as unpopular as ever in those states that voted strongly for McCain.


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J. J.
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« Reply #3953 on: February 23, 2010, 09:45:19 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%

Disapprove 54%

Obama's "strongly approve" number is 23%, which was an +1 uptick; his strongly disapprove numbers went up to 42%, also +1.

This was not a bad sample.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3954 on: February 23, 2010, 01:47:19 PM »

Rasmussen in Florida again for the Senate poll

45% approve
54% disapprove
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3955 on: February 23, 2010, 02:34:28 PM »

Ohio slips a bit; Florida improves a bit -- really category changes on the margin hardly worthy of attention, and really a wash at that .  . Georgia steady and better than I could expect. It will be competitive in 2012. Nothing is said of a US Senate race in the Rasmussen poll, so I say nothing about it. The GOP can't afford to lose Georgia in 2012.

Georgia is intriguing; although it is close to the national average on the question of whether people feel safer about terrorism now as opposed to the immediate time aftermath of 9/11. But it seems to endorse harsh interrogation techniques against terrorist suspects. It also opposes the Democratic health-care plan.

Are Southerners more fatalistic about health than Northerners?




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3956 on: February 24, 2010, 01:27:17 AM »

Texas (Rasmussen)Sad

41% Approve
57% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 1,200 Likely Voters in Texas was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 22, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/toplines/toplines_2010_texas_governor_february_22_2010
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3957 on: February 24, 2010, 01:39:36 AM »

Rhode Island (Brown University)Sad

44% Excellent/Good
52% Fair/Poor

The survey was conducted February 9-12, 2010, by researchers at The A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and the John Hazen White Public Opinion Laboratory at Brown University. It is based on a statewide random sample of 605 registered voters. Overall, the survey had a margin of error of about plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2010/02/taubman
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3958 on: February 24, 2010, 04:00:42 AM »

So Obama is at 44% in Georgia, Ohio and Rhode Island, eh? Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3959 on: February 24, 2010, 08:34:36 AM »

Texas no change, and the RI poll is EGFP, so not usable.  I thus offer no new map for now.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3960 on: February 24, 2010, 09:41:25 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%

Disapprove 54%

Obama's "strongly approve" number is 26%, which was a +3 uptick.  All other numbers remained the same.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3961 on: February 24, 2010, 11:30:29 AM »

New Mexico (PPP)Sad

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 990 New Mexico voters from February 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_224.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3962 on: February 24, 2010, 12:05:28 PM »

Pennsylvania (F & M)Sad

41% Excellent/Good
59% Fair/Poor

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted February 15-21, 2010. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Project Manager Jennifer Harding. The data included in this release represent the responses of 1143 adult residents of Pennsylvania, including 954 registered adults (481 Democrats, 340 Republicans, 111 registered as Independent/Other, and 22 who refused to identify party).

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyfeb10_1.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3963 on: February 24, 2010, 12:21:50 PM »

New York (SRI)Sad

61% Favorable
35% Unfavorable

This SRI survey was conducted February 14-18, 2010 by telephone calls to 805 New York State registered voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.5 percentage points. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party and gender to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing weighted to reflect known population patterns. SRI is an independent, non-partisan research institute.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY0210_Release_FINAL.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3964 on: February 24, 2010, 02:16:57 PM »

Georgia (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
57% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Georgia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 17, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/georgia/toplines/toplines_georgia_senate_february_18_2010
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3965 on: February 24, 2010, 02:34:13 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2010, 02:35:57 PM by pbrower2a »

A large geographic gap closes with a long-awaited approval poll, and it is good for a new map:

New Mexico (PPP)Sad

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 990 New Mexico voters from February 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_224.pdf

and a category change for one state (New York) that has more visual effect than substance. Two others (PA, GA) entail no category changes. Can anyone explain how Obama is doing so badly in Pennsylvania?




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

No Enhanced Fluorescent Green Protein here, either.





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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3966 on: February 24, 2010, 02:50:35 PM »

New Mexico (PPP)Sad

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 990 New Mexico voters from February 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_224.pdf

Great news, thanks!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3967 on: February 24, 2010, 02:59:48 PM »


and a category change for one state (New York) that has more visual effect than substance. Two others (PA, GA) entail no category changes. Can anyone explain how Obama is doing so badly in Pennsylvania?


You have to change NY because it`s favorables, and the letter "Z" to "B" in Vermont.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3968 on: February 24, 2010, 03:30:06 PM »

A large geographic gap closes with a long-awaited approval poll, and it is good for a new map:

New Mexico (PPP)Sad

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 990 New Mexico voters from February 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_224.pdf

and a category change for one state (New York) that has more visual effect than substance. Two others (PA, GA) entail no category changes. Can anyone explain how Obama is doing so badly in Pennsylvania?




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

No Enhanced Fluorescent Green Protein here, either.



Fixed.


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5280
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« Reply #3969 on: February 24, 2010, 10:33:02 PM »

About time New Mexico changed from light green to yellow, I was expecting it to happen.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3970 on: February 24, 2010, 10:56:04 PM »

About time New Mexico changed from light green to yellow, I was expecting it to happen.

Note what Nate Silver says: a Gallup approval of 44% nationwide indicates about a 50% chance of an incumbent President getting re-elected in a two-way race. The curve between winning and losing is very sharp, so someone with a 41% nationwide approval rating has practically no chance to win, and someone with a 47% nationwide approval rating is a virtual shoo-in.  If states break that way, then anything in a a green shade or sand has a more-than-50% chance of going for the incumbent President. 

Think of what goes on: people disgruntled with both choices in the election either don't vote, waste their votes for a third-party candidate, or split on roughly a 50-50 basis. Some who disapprove disapprove "slightly" and choose between the incumbent that they know and a challenger who isn't clearly better... in favor of the incumbent. Incumbents are 1305 in runs for re-election beginning in 1900, and for good reason.

Most of the polls here are by Rasmussen, and they are largely what Rasmussen considers "likely voters" -- which means "not the younger voters" even if they break strongly (so far as can be known in view of voting behavior in 2008) for Obama.  Those are tougher polls than Gallup, and  such is noteworthy. Who can predict who will vote in 2012? Some of the "likely voters" will have died or gone senile by November 2012, and some people now 15 will be voting in 2012 -- which Rasmussen cannot predict with specificity either way.

Right now, I would say that even registering to vote suggests that one is a "likely voter". "Approval" is a fair proxy for likely voting behavior unless something funny is going on (like an inordinate number of visits by the President to a state or inordinately few).   But how good a proxy is "approval" for likely voting? Is Rasmussen more reliable now than Gallup?

About all that I can predict is that Obama would do extremely well in Vermont, less well in New York and California, decidedly less well in Michigan and Washington, then in turn not so well in New Mexico... and probably execrably in Alabama. The map that I have is best described as groupings -- tiers of support, if you will. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3971 on: February 25, 2010, 02:03:52 AM »

South Carolina (Winthrop Univ.)Sad

48% Approve
40% Disapprove

This survey includes responses from 837 respondents giving results which use all respondents a margin of error of +/- 3.39% at the 95% confidence level. Reported results using a subset of the entire sample will naturally have a higher margin of error. This survey includes respondents aged 18 years and older from SC.

http://www.winthrop.edu/uploadedFiles/wupoll/Feb2010WinthropPollResults.pdf
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3972 on: February 25, 2010, 04:22:22 AM »

lol most of these state polls seem to be garbage, such as the one above and the PA one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3973 on: February 25, 2010, 10:31:11 AM »

South Carolina seems to be bucking a trend: Obama is doing surprisingly well, and elected Republicans seem to be in political trouble. There's a huge gap of undecided among adult respondents. I might have expected the state to be in the same category as Georgia, and the light green looks like a surprise. It was "sand" in December.

Elected GOP officials have been behaving badly, including Governor Mark "Don't cry for me, Argentina!" Sanford and Joe "You lie!" Wilson. The approval rating for Jim DeMint, who is up for re-election in November, is execrable for an incumbent (42%) with about 28% "not sure". Is this for real? The Governor's wife gets a high "favorable" rating in view of what she has been through. She would be electable.

A Rasmussen poll of "likely voters" might push this one back to Earth. South Carolina Republicans of 2008 have been acting much like Democrats -- of 1994. South Carolina could be trouble for the GOP in 2010 and 2012. 




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

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Devilman88
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« Reply #3974 on: February 25, 2010, 11:04:32 AM »

If you really think that poll is anything close to the truth, then you are stupid and need to stop posting here.
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