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March 08, 2021, 01:49:22 AM
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2012 Elections
The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (Read 1060198 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,298
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3775 on:
February 04, 2010, 05:44:25 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on February 04, 2010, 04:30:46 PM
Quote from: pbrower2a on February 04, 2010, 02:38:07 PM
Quote from: J. J. on February 04, 2010, 10:31:31 AM
Quote from: pbrower2a on February 04, 2010, 09:50:23 AM
Quote from: NiK on February 03, 2010, 11:10:37 PM
It's interesting to note that the states would, if the polling is correct, vote for "someone else." Now, why is it that the national trend shows him with approval generally in the high 40s/low 50s, then?
In general, an incumbent President has about a 50-50 chance of winning re-election if his approval rating is at 44%. (Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com) Above 44% the likelihood of victory skyrockets to near 100% at 47% approval. Unless something funny is going on (like a favorite son as an opponent in the state) such is likely a good approximation for winning the state. So in a two-way race with a couple of minor parties running candidates who sop up the disaffected vote and allow one of the two main candidates to win with about 49% of the vote, this map of the latest approval ratings for likely voters (note: Connecticut updated)
If you are looking at this,
at this point in time
, the statement is false. Carter had 55%, GHWB, about a month after the capture of Noriega, had an 80%.
No
elected
president was lower than a 47% approval numbers on Gallup,
at this point in time
. Reagan had 49% and was re-elected. Clinton was as 54% (and was on an upswing) but only had 49% of the vote in the next presidential election.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm
Either Silver has it wrong, grandly, or you are misquoting him.
That is... at a certain time close to the election. We are far from the 2012 Presidential election. I am not willing to extrapolate further deterioration of his approval ratings because to extrapolate such is statistical recklessness.
I'm suggesting that the use of statistic, 47%, is meaningless, since
all
elected presidents were above 47% at this point in time in their first term, including those that were not reelected. In other words, either Nate Silver is very wrong or you are misquoting him.
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Or knee jerk liberals that never would have supported Reagan.
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People wanted miracles, and they haven't happened. They wanted a return to high employment and quick ends to wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. I am hardly surprised that people are disappointed. We are getting out of Iraq (of deeper into Afghanistan), and we did get a run of eleven months of a rising stock market.
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Dissent with Obama is not "all racial", but I can see it as a component of the difference between Reagan's 49% and Obama's 47%.
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true liberty
Rookie
Posts: 117
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3776 on:
February 04, 2010, 05:52:28 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 04, 2010, 02:56:09 PM
FOX News:
46% Approve
47% Disapprove
51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable
Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf
lol fox news...
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,203
Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3777 on:
February 04, 2010, 05:59:13 PM »
Quote from: true liberty on February 04, 2010, 05:52:28 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 04, 2010, 02:56:09 PM
FOX News:
46% Approve
47% Disapprove
51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable
Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf
lol fox news...
What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3778 on:
February 04, 2010, 06:37:49 PM »
«
Edited:
February 04, 2010, 06:41:37 PM
by
J. J. »
Quote from: pbrower2a on February 04, 2010, 02:38:07 PM
I fail to see much difference between the 49% for Reagan and the 47% for Obama. The difference is probably smaller than the number of racists who would never recognize the legitimate achievements of any black person.
I think you do fail to see that basically several one term presidents had higher numbers than 47%, at this point, and were still one term presidents. Either Nate Silver is waaaaaay off, or you are misquoting his statistics.
You also fail to see that the high negative numbers have grown, in some cases, even when his positives stayed the same or increased. To do this, the number of racists would had to have increased.
Here is what happened on Gallup, approve and disapprove humbers:
2/09:
A 62% D 29%
3/09
A 64% D30%
10/09
A 49% D 44%
12/09
A 49% D 46%
It isn't much, but it is there. It seems to be trending in this direction.
I think there was one poll where this didn't happen.
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Poundingtherock
Jr. Member
Posts: 917
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3779 on:
February 04, 2010, 06:49:09 PM »
New Hampshire Obama poll:
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_winter_presapp20410.pdf
48/47 approval/disapproval
52/41 favorable/unfavorable
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
Posts: 43,767
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3780 on:
February 04, 2010, 06:57:14 PM »
Quote from: Nancy Kassebaum on February 04, 2010, 05:59:13 PM
Quote from: true liberty on February 04, 2010, 05:52:28 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 04, 2010, 02:56:09 PM
FOX News:
46% Approve
47% Disapprove
51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable
Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf
lol fox news...
What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.
Based on what? That one poll you saw the other day?
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,203
Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3781 on:
February 04, 2010, 07:15:18 PM »
Quote from: Let us play hockey in Afghanistan. on February 04, 2010, 06:57:14 PM
Quote from: Nancy Kassebaum on February 04, 2010, 05:59:13 PM
Quote from: true liberty on February 04, 2010, 05:52:28 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 04, 2010, 02:56:09 PM
FOX News:
46% Approve
47% Disapprove
51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable
Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf
lol fox news...
What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.
Based on what? That one poll you saw the other day?
Based on almost all of their polls on the Presidents approval. This is one of the first ones where they were below the RCP average.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
Posts: 43,767
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3782 on:
February 04, 2010, 07:31:43 PM »
Quote from: Nancy Kassebaum on February 04, 2010, 07:15:18 PM
Quote from: Let us play hockey in Afghanistan. on February 04, 2010, 06:57:14 PM
Quote from: Nancy Kassebaum on February 04, 2010, 05:59:13 PM
Quote from: true liberty on February 04, 2010, 05:52:28 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 04, 2010, 02:56:09 PM
FOX News:
46% Approve
47% Disapprove
51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable
Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf
lol fox news...
What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.
Based on what? That one poll you saw the other day?
Based on almost all of their polls on the Presidents approval. This is one of the first ones where they were below the RCP average.
Umm, no.
They have always been pretty close to the average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls
Opinion Dynamics is a decent pollster. I never noticed much of a bias either way in their numbers but if there was one it certainly wouldn't be towards the Left.
Logged
Poundingtherock
Jr. Member
Posts: 917
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3783 on:
February 04, 2010, 11:08:26 PM »
Regarding the left slant in Fox News/Opinion Dynamics for Obama's approval ratings, see the following from October:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/question-order-may-bias-fox-news-health.html
"The first instinct that most of the liberals in the audience will have simply this: well, it's a Fox poll, so of course it's biased. The reality is a little bit more complicated, however. Fox News's pollster, Opinion Dynamics, generally hasn't shown much evidence of a Republican-leaning "house effect". Take a look, for example, at their Obama approval numbers. Since the beginning of Obama's term, they have shown, on average, 58 percent of registered voters approving the President versus 32 percent disapproval. This is, if anything, generous to Obama, as the average non-Fox polls has shown 57 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval over this interval."
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,496
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3784 on:
February 05, 2010, 01:42:38 AM »
Rhode Island (Fleming & Associates)
51% Excellent/Good
48% Fair/Poor
The poll was conducted by phone January 27 through January 31, 2010. Reflecting the political canvas of the state; 39 percent of those polled considered themselves Democrat, 17 percent Republican and 41 percent Independent. Statewide statistics -- 500 registered voters -- comes with a 4.4 percent margin of error.
http://www.wpri.com/generic/news/politics/local_politics/campaign-2010-eyewitness-news-poll-barack-obama-
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pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,298
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3785 on:
February 05, 2010, 02:30:38 AM »
«
Edited:
February 05, 2010, 02:32:17 AM
by
pbrower2a »
New Hampshire and Rhode Island check in:
Rhode Island gives an excellent-good-fair-poor rating and no obvious change, and it is a January poll.
Statewide approval polls seem to be approaching the mean nationwide. That happens when the President isn't tailoring his messages to specific states.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3786 on:
February 05, 2010, 09:39:27 AM »
Rasmussen gives Obama 46% A, 53% D.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,941
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3787 on:
February 05, 2010, 11:16:12 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 05, 2010, 01:42:38 AM
Rhode Island (Fleming & Associates)
51% Excellent/Good
48% Fair/Poor
The poll was conducted by phone January 27 through January 31, 2010. Reflecting the political canvas of the state; 39 percent of those polled considered themselves Democrat, 17 percent Republican and 41 percent Independent. Statewide statistics -- 500 registered voters -- comes with a 4.4 percent margin of error.
http://www.wpri.com/generic/news/politics/local_politics/campaign-2010-eyewitness-news-poll-barack-obama-
Lol, doubtful.
Logged
ConservativeIllini
Rookie
Posts: 104
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3788 on:
February 05, 2010, 12:13:11 PM »
I don't really like EGFP polls, as some who say he is doing "fair" could still approve...
Rowan, you don't include those in your maps, correct?
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,692
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3789 on:
February 05, 2010, 02:10:24 PM »
Quote from: ConservativeIllini on February 05, 2010, 12:13:11 PM
I don't really like EGFP polls, as some who say he is doing "fair" could still approve...
Rowan, you don't include those in your maps, correct?
No, I do not. I'll update my map later, been busy lately.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
Posts: 63,543
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3790 on:
February 05, 2010, 02:45:00 PM »
Sam Tan Polling Inc (MoE 4.1)
30% Excellent
70% Everything Else
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CJK
Jr. Member
Posts: 671
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3791 on:
February 05, 2010, 02:56:53 PM »
Gallup released it's state approval ratings for all of 2009:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125648/Obama-Approval-Among-States-Hawaii-Warmest-Obama.aspx
National: 58/34
Alabama: 49/43
Alaska: 46/43
Arizona: 55/37
Arkansas: 49/40
California: 64/26
Colorado: 52/37
Connecticut: 67/27
Delaware: 61/29
DC: 90/7
Florida: 57/35
Georgia: 56/36
Hawaii: 71/22
Idaho: 43/47
Illinois: 65/27
Indiana: 55/35
Iowa: 58/33
Kansas: 51/39
Kentucky: 53/38
Louisiana: 50/41
Maine: 59/32
Maryland: 69/25
Massachusetts: 67/26
Michigan: 60/31
Minnesota: 62/30
Mississippi: 52/40
Missouri: 56/36
Montana: 48/42
Nebraska: 50/40
Nevada: 56/35
New Hampshire: 55/37
New Jersey: 63/30
New Mexico: 56/34
New York: 67/25
North Carolina: 55/35
North Dakota: 55/40
Ohio: 55/36
Oklahoma: 48/42
Oregon: 58/32
Pennsylvania: 57/33
Rhode Island: 67/25
South Carolina: 56/36
South Dakota: 56/36
Tennessee: 52/39
Texas: 52/38
Utah: 48/41
Vermont: 68/24
Virginia: 58/34
Washington: 58/32
West Virginia: 46/41
Wisconsin: 58/33
Wyoming: 42/45
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,907
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3792 on:
February 05, 2010, 02:57:43 PM »
Quote from: Send in the Clowns on February 05, 2010, 02:45:00 PM
Sam Tan Polling Inc (MoE 4.1)
30% Excellent
70% Everything Else
Intriguingly, if you check the crosstabs, 17% of the responses were "pierogi."
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CJK
Jr. Member
Posts: 671
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3793 on:
February 05, 2010, 03:59:35 PM »
«
Edited:
February 05, 2010, 06:22:57 PM
by
CJK »
If we use Gallup's data from the first half of 2009 we can roughly estimate the second half of 2009 with the total year data.
Second Half of 2009:
National: 53/40
Alabama: 42/52
Alaska: 43/50
Arizona: 52/42
Arkansas: 42/49
California: 60/32
Colorado: 49/41
Connecticut: 63/33
Delaware: 62/27
Florida: 53/41
Georgia: 51/43
Hawaii: 67/24
Idaho: 36/60
Illinois: 59/33
Indiana: 48/42
Iowa 55/38
Kansas 47/46
Kentucky 45/46
Louisiana: 45/48
Maine: 52/40
Maryland: 65/31
Massachusetts: 61/32
Michigan: 55/36
Minnesota: 58/35
Mississippi: 46/49
Missouri: 50/43
Montana: 44/49
Nebraska: 43/48
Nevada: 53/41
New Hampshire: 48/45
New Jersey: 57/38
New Mexico: 49/42
New York: 63/30
North Carolina: 50/41
North Dakota: 47/48
Ohio: 48/45
Oklahoma: 43/50
Oregon: 53/39
Pennsylvania: 49/41
Rhode Island: 64/27
South Carolina: 51/42
South Dakota: 54/39
Tennessee: 46/47
Texas: 47/45
Utah: 46/44
Vermont: 62/31
Virginia: 53/41
Washington: 53/39
West Virginia: 41/47
Wisconsin: 55/39
Wyoming: 38/54
Logged
CJK
Jr. Member
Posts: 671
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3794 on:
February 05, 2010, 06:27:00 PM »
Map of late 2009 approval:
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CJK
Jr. Member
Posts: 671
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3795 on:
February 05, 2010, 06:36:41 PM »
Extrapolated to last months approval we get this:
I admit it looks very strange...
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,692
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3796 on:
February 05, 2010, 06:39:00 PM »
New York, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, New Jersey, New Hampshire updated.
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,692
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3797 on:
February 05, 2010, 06:52:59 PM »
Colorado(Rasmussen)
Approve 45%
Disapprove 53%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/colorado/toplines/toplines_election_2010_colorado_senate_february_2_2010
Nevada(Rasmussen)
Approve 46%
Disapprove 54%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/nevada/toplines/toplines_2010_nevada_senate_february_3_2010
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
Katherine Harris is legit
D Parker
Jr. Member
Posts: 324
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3798 on:
February 05, 2010, 07:07:53 PM »
America is starting to realize why we elected Republicans- they didn't screw things up. Obama is a disaster, even by liberal standards. The (dis)approval ratings are starting to reflect that. I wouldn't be surprised if he reached Truman levels of unpopularity.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,941
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3799 on:
February 05, 2010, 07:31:29 PM »
Quote from: KARL ROVE on February 05, 2010, 07:07:53 PM
America is starting to realize why we elected Republicans- they didn't screw things up.
Ahem...
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