The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

It's interesting to note that the states would, if the polling is correct, vote for "someone else." Now, why is it that the national trend shows him with approval generally in the high 40s/low 50s, then?

In general, an incumbent President has about a 50-50 chance of winning re-election if his approval rating is at 44%. (Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com)  Above 44% the likelihood of victory skyrockets to near 100% at 47% approval. Unless something funny is going on (like a favorite son as an opponent in the state) such is likely a good approximation for winning the state. So in a two-way race with a couple of minor parties running candidates who sop up the disaffected vote and allow one of the two main candidates to win with about 49% of the vote, this map of the latest  approval ratings for likely voters (note: Connecticut updated)

If you are looking at this, at this point in time, the statement is false.  Carter had 55%, GHWB, about a month after the capture of Noriega, had an 80%.

No elected president was lower than a 47% approval numbers on Gallup, at this point in time.  Reagan had 49% and was re-elected.  Clinton was as 54% (and was on an upswing) but only had 49% of the vote in the next presidential election.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

Either Silver has it wrong, grandly, or you are misquoting him.

That is... at a certain time close to the election. We are far from the 2012 Presidential election. I am not willing to extrapolate further deterioration of his approval ratings because to extrapolate such is statistical recklessness.

I'm suggesting that the use of statistic, 47%, is meaningless, since all elected presidents were above 47% at this point in time in their first term, including those that were not reelected.  In other words, either Nate Silver is very wrong or you are misquoting him.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Or knee jerk liberals that never would have supported Reagan.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

People wanted miracles, and they haven't happened. They wanted a return to high employment and quick ends to wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. I am hardly surprised that people are disappointed.  We are getting out of Iraq (of deeper into Afghanistan), and we did get a run of eleven months of a rising stock market.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Dissent with Obama is not "all racial", but I can see it as a component of the difference between Reagan's 49% and Obama's 47%.

[true liberty]

FOX News:

46% Approve
47% Disapprove

51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf

lol fox news...

[tmthforu94]

FOX News:

46% Approve
47% Disapprove

51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf

lol fox news...

What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.

[J. J.]

I fail to see much difference between the 49% for Reagan and the 47% for Obama. The difference is probably smaller than the number of racists who would never recognize the legitimate achievements of any black person.

I think you do fail to see that basically several one term presidents had higher numbers than 47%, at this point, and were still one term presidents.  Either Nate Silver is waaaaaay off, or you are misquoting his statistics.

You also fail to see that the high negative numbers have grown, in some cases, even when his positives stayed the same or increased.  To do this, the number of racists would had to have increased.

Here is what happened on Gallup, approve and disapprove humbers:

2/09:

A 62% D 29%

3/09

A 64% D30%

10/09

A 49% D 44%
12/09

A 49% D 46%

It isn't much, but it is there.  It seems to be trending in this direction.

I think there was one poll where this didn't happen.

[Poundingtherock]

New Hampshire Obama poll:

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_winter_presapp20410.pdf

48/47 approval/disapproval

52/41 favorable/unfavorable

[Eraserhead]

FOX News:

46% Approve
47% Disapprove

51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf

lol fox news...

What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.

Based on what? That one poll you saw the other day?

[tmthforu94]

FOX News:

46% Approve
47% Disapprove

51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf

lol fox news...

What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.

Based on what? That one poll you saw the other day?

Based on almost all of their polls on the Presidents approval. This is one of the first ones where they were below the RCP average.

[Eraserhead]

FOX News:

46% Approve
47% Disapprove

51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf

lol fox news...

What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.

Based on what? That one poll you saw the other day?

Based on almost all of their polls on the Presidents approval. This is one of the first ones where they were below the RCP average.

Umm, no.

They have always been pretty close to the average.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls

Opinion Dynamics is a decent pollster. I never noticed much of a bias either way in their numbers but if there was one it certainly wouldn't be towards the Left.

[Poundingtherock]

Regarding the left slant in  Fox News/Opinion Dynamics for  Obama's approval ratings, see the following from October:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/question-order-may-bias-fox-news-health.html

"The first instinct that most of the liberals in the audience will have simply this: well, it's a Fox poll, so of course it's biased. The reality is a little bit more complicated, however. Fox News's pollster, Opinion Dynamics, generally hasn't shown much evidence of a Republican-leaning "house effect". Take a look, for example, at their Obama approval numbers. Since the beginning of Obama's term, they have shown, on average, 58 percent of registered voters approving the President versus 32 percent disapproval. This is, if anything, generous to Obama, as the average non-Fox polls has shown 57 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval over this interval."

[Tender Branson]

Rhode Island (Fleming & Associates)

51% Excellent/Good
48% Fair/Poor

The poll was conducted by phone January 27 through January 31, 2010. Reflecting the political canvas of the state; 39 percent of those polled considered themselves Democrat, 17 percent Republican and 41 percent Independent. Statewide statistics -- 500 registered voters -- comes with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

http://www.wpri.com/generic/news/politics/local_politics/campaign-2010-eyewitness-news-poll-barack-obama-

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire and Rhode Island check in:



Rhode Island gives an excellent-good-fair-poor rating and no obvious change, and it is a January poll.

Statewide approval polls seem to be approaching the mean nationwide. That happens when the President isn't tailoring his messages to specific states.  

[J. J.]

Rasmussen gives Obama 46% A, 53% D.

[You kip if you want to...]

Rhode Island (Fleming & Associates)

51% Excellent/Good
48% Fair/Poor

The poll was conducted by phone January 27 through January 31, 2010. Reflecting the political canvas of the state; 39 percent of those polled considered themselves Democrat, 17 percent Republican and 41 percent Independent. Statewide statistics -- 500 registered voters -- comes with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

http://www.wpri.com/generic/news/politics/local_politics/campaign-2010-eyewitness-news-poll-barack-obama-

Lol, doubtful.

[ConservativeIllini]

I don't really like EGFP polls, as some who say he is doing "fair" could still approve...

Rowan, you don't include those in your maps, correct?

[Rowan]

I don't really like EGFP polls, as some who say he is doing "fair" could still approve...

Rowan, you don't include those in your maps, correct?

No, I do not. I'll update my map later, been busy lately.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sam Tan Polling Inc (MoE 4.1)

30% Excellent
70% Everything Else

[CJK]

Gallup released it's state approval ratings for all of 2009:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125648/Obama-Approval-Among-States-Hawaii-Warmest-Obama.aspx

National: 58/34

Alabama: 49/43

Alaska: 46/43

Arizona: 55/37

Arkansas: 49/40

California: 64/26

Colorado: 52/37

Connecticut: 67/27

Delaware: 61/29

DC: 90/7

Florida: 57/35

Georgia: 56/36

Hawaii: 71/22

Idaho: 43/47

Illinois: 65/27

Indiana: 55/35

Iowa: 58/33

Kansas: 51/39

Kentucky: 53/38

Louisiana: 50/41

Maine: 59/32

Maryland: 69/25

Massachusetts: 67/26

Michigan: 60/31

Minnesota: 62/30

Mississippi: 52/40

Missouri: 56/36

Montana: 48/42

Nebraska: 50/40

Nevada: 56/35

New Hampshire: 55/37

New Jersey: 63/30

New Mexico: 56/34

New York: 67/25

North Carolina: 55/35

North Dakota: 55/40

Ohio: 55/36

Oklahoma: 48/42

Oregon: 58/32

Pennsylvania: 57/33

Rhode Island: 67/25

South Carolina: 56/36

South Dakota: 56/36

Tennessee: 52/39

Texas: 52/38

Utah: 48/41

Vermont: 68/24

Virginia: 58/34

Washington: 58/32

West Virginia: 46/41

Wisconsin: 58/33

Wyoming: 42/45

[Alcon]

Sam Tan Polling Inc (MoE 4.1)

30% Excellent
70% Everything Else

Intriguingly, if you check the crosstabs, 17% of the responses were "pierogi."

[CJK]

If we use Gallup's data from the first half of 2009 we can roughly estimate the second half of 2009 with the total year data.

Second Half of 2009:

National: 53/40

Alabama: 42/52

Alaska: 43/50

Arizona: 52/42

Arkansas: 42/49

California: 60/32

Colorado: 49/41

Connecticut: 63/33

Delaware: 62/27

Florida: 53/41

Georgia: 51/43

Hawaii: 67/24

Idaho: 36/60

Illinois: 59/33

Indiana: 48/42

Iowa 55/38

Kansas 47/46

Kentucky 45/46

Louisiana: 45/48

Maine: 52/40

Maryland: 65/31

Massachusetts: 61/32

Michigan: 55/36

Minnesota: 58/35

Mississippi: 46/49

Missouri: 50/43

Montana: 44/49

Nebraska: 43/48

Nevada: 53/41

New Hampshire: 48/45

New Jersey: 57/38

New Mexico: 49/42

New York: 63/30

North Carolina: 50/41

North Dakota: 47/48

Ohio: 48/45

Oklahoma: 43/50

Oregon: 53/39

Pennsylvania: 49/41

Rhode Island: 64/27

South Carolina: 51/42

South Dakota: 54/39

Tennessee: 46/47

Texas: 47/45

Utah: 46/44

Vermont: 62/31

Virginia: 53/41

Washington: 53/39

West Virginia: 41/47

Wisconsin: 55/39

Wyoming: 38/54

[CJK]

Map of late 2009 approval:

[CJK]

Extrapolated to last months approval we get this:



I admit it looks very strange...

[Rowan]

New York, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, New Jersey, New Hampshire updated.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[Rowan]

Colorado(Rasmussen)
Approve 45%
Disapprove 53%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/colorado/toplines/toplines_election_2010_colorado_senate_february_2_2010

Nevada(Rasmussen)
Approve 46%
Disapprove 54%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/nevada/toplines/toplines_2010_nevada_senate_february_3_2010




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[Katherine Harris is legit]

America is starting to realize why we elected Republicans- they didn't screw things up. Obama is a disaster, even by liberal standards. The (dis)approval ratings are starting to reflect that. I wouldn't be surprised if he reached Truman levels of unpopularity.

[You kip if you want to...]

America is starting to realize why we elected Republicans- they didn't screw things up.

Ahem...