The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Kaine for Senate '18]

if 33 hours can be an agony on election night with a critical state in the balance, and 33 days going into the election can be a seeming eternity, then what is 33 months?

Totally irrelevant.

[J. J.]

On Rasmussen, Obama's positive and negative numbers have not moved out of a 5 point range since the first week of December.

He's been at 46.5% +/- 2.5 points.  It is remarkably stable.

[pbrower2a]

On Rasmussen, Obama's positive and negative numbers have not moved out of a 5 point range since the first week of December.

He's been at 46.5% +/- 2.5 points.  It is remarkably stable.

46.5% approval is enough to win re-election.

Does anyone notice that American involvement in Iraq has been shrinking? It is increasing in Afghanistan, which is to be expected.

[J. J.]

46.5% approval is enough to win re-election.

Does anyone notice that American involvement in Iraq has been shrinking? It is increasing in Afghanistan, which is to be expected.

I'm not exactly ready to write Obama off.  Iraq was a 2004 issue and will shrink or disappear by 2012, unless something really goes bad.  The problems is Iran and possibly Yemen.

Iraq could come back if Iran attempts to intervene.

[J. J.]

One think that should be noted is Obama's negative numbers are tending to higher than for other presidents as the same point.

[pbrower2a]

One think that should be noted is Obama's negative numbers are tending to higher than for other presidents as the same point.

A negative vote from someone who thinks the President the reincarnation of Josef Stalin counts just as much as someone who simply thinks him a little weaker than the opponent.

In 2012 it likely comes down to the GOTV drives.

[Umengus]

On Rasmussen, Obama's positive and negative numbers have not moved out of a 5 point range since the first week of December.

He's been at 46.5% +/- 2.5 points.  It is remarkably stable.

46.5% approval is enough to win re-election.

Does anyone notice that American involvement in Iraq has been shrinking? It is increasing in Afghanistan, which is to be expected.

it's not enough,  if the republican candidate is good.

[Rowan]

Florida and Delaware updated



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[J. J.]

One think that should be noted is Obama's negative numbers are tending to higher than for other presidents as the same point.

A negative vote from someone who thinks the President the reincarnation of Josef Stalin counts just as much as someone who simply thinks him a little weaker than the opponent.

In 2012 it likely comes down to the GOTV drives.

No, there is something more.  Look at Obama's Strongly Approve and Approve numbers on Rasmussen.  Over the last month, they been about 20 points apart.  Strongly Disapprove and Disapprove have been around 12 points apart.  His current supporters tend to be weaker in their support, and his detractors tend to be stronger.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

And, you can look at it historically, on Gallup.

Reagan had the lowest the approval number of any elected postwar president at this point in his presidency, 49%.  He had a disapproval rate of 40%.  Obama has a 50% approval at the same time, and a 45% disapproval.  Even when Reagan had approval numbers around 47%, his disapproval numbers were still about five points lower than his approval numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

I'm saying Obama is tending to be more polarizing; the people that don't like him really don't like him.  The people like him, really don't like him all that much.

Now, Obama can win if even those don't feel really strongly supportive of him vote for him, but if things go badly, he may be very likely to lose those weakly supportive of him.

BTW:  I'm not in the group that strongly disapproves as of yet.   

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania (F & M)

38% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjan10_1.pdf

[You kip if you want to...]

Pennsylvania (F & M)

38% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjan10_1.pdf

lol POLLFAIL!

[ConservativeIllini]

Pennsylvania (F & M)

38% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjan10_1.pdf

This definitely deserves one of pbrower's "S" marks.  Or just ignore it.

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania (F & M)

38% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjan10_1.pdf

This definitely deserves one of pbrower's "S" marks.  Or just ignore it.

I´m not so sure, because many people who say "fair" in this poll might actually vote "approve" in a "approve/disapprove" poll.

Excellent/Good numbers always tend to be lower than Approve/Disapprove numbers (Rasmussen showed 46% of PAians approve of Obama just recently).

Anyway RB and PB: Excellent/Good polls shouldn't be added to the map.

[Rowan]

I've never used E/G/F/P in my maps.

[J. J.]

Pennsylvania (F & M)

38% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjan10_1.pdf

lol POLLFAIL!

F & M is one of the top polls for PA.  I'm not happy with the categories, however.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania (F & M)

38% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjan10_1.pdf

This definitely deserves one of pbrower's "S" marks.  Or just ignore it.

As an EGFP result it can be rejected as such, but the strange write-up (unusually enthusiastic toward Republican candidates) brings to question its genuineness. I have no idea what "the most likely voters" means. There will be outliers, and there will be partisan polls (indeed, I accepted a partisan poll by a Republican organization in January because the state in question rarely gets polled).

Indeed it gets harsher treatment than my "S" -- complete rejection.




 

[ConservativeIllini]

Obama at 46% approve, 54% disapprove in Wisconsin among 2010 likely voters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/toplines/toplines_wisconsin_senate_january_26_2010

[Zarn]

It looks like a small bump is over. Some of the states that were seeming to come back to Obama's column are dropping again.

[Rowan]

Wisconsin updated



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[pbrower2a]

Great day for the American Right:



The last time that Wisconsin was competitive for the GOP, Kerry was the nominee.

What does the Hard Right have to offer, anyway?

[ConservativeIllini]

I wouldn't worry about it pbrower, Wisconsin won't go Red in 2012 anyway unless Obama continues as a train wreck, which is unlikely.  Some good legislation is bound to pass at some point, or the economy is bound to turn around.  My thoughts anyway...

[Tender Branson]

Iowa (Rasmussen)

44% Approve
54% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 26, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_2010_election_iowa_senate_january_26_2010

[Eraserhead]

I think he'll probably get a small SOTU bump. It won't last long though.

[J. J.]

I think he'll probably get a small SOTU bump. It won't last long though.

Somebody posted an average and said that there wouldn't be even a short term bump.  I wouldn't read too much into a "no bump," if that happens.

[Rowan]

Iowa Updated



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green