The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Link on NC?

[Rowan]

It was mentioned on the last page:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_122.pdf

[Eraserhead]

Pretty hilarious how poor his approvals are and yet he still crushes Republicans head-to-head. I suppose America just hates everyone right now. Understandable, really.

no. Huckabee beats (unfortunatly) him by 1 and Romney is trailing by 2.

According to the PPP poll which came out after I posted that. The Fox poll has Obama beating Romney, Palin and Gingrich by double digits. I wish they had polled Huckabee.

[Psychic Octopus]

Fox News has always been awful at polling, so I doubt it's that far and away. He certainly is leading, though.

[5280]

When are we going to get polls from Wyoming, Vermont, Mississippi, and WV?

[Psychic Octopus]

When are we going to get polls from Wyoming, Vermont, Mississippi, and WV?

I think that it's safe to assume that Vermont is the only one out of the four with positives for Obama.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Link on NC?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_122.pdf

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green

Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

I still think that my map looks better  (not so much a political statement as one of esthetics). 

[Umengus]

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

Since when?  I mean, the waterboarding's been done, but I don't think that's a bragging point.

cfr Brown. I am convinced that majority of the gop (and american people by the way, cfr rasmussen and pew polls) support waterboarding terrorists. And oppose the guantanamo closing. The Brown spokeman has said that it was an important issue in the election (in massach. !!)

waterboarding, don't close guantanamo,... = strong on national security and the war on terror. A great republican value.

If a majority of Germans supported persecution of the Jews (if not the Holocaust) in 1939, then would they have been right? When a majority of white people supported segregation and disenfranchisement of blacks with the terrorization of those who opposed those things long into the 1960s, would they have been right? If a majority of people in Salem, Massachusetts in 1692 thought it right to execute "witches", would they have been right?

Waterboarding is torture -- a crime. Jesse Ventura, a (I forget  -- Marine? Special Forces?) veteran said that if he were subjected to waterboarding he would confess to the Tate-LaBianca murders. Heck, I would probably confess to the murder of Bill Clinton (who is very much alive).

We should have closed Guantanamo when evidence leaked of prisoner abuse. It could now be used to house recent denizens of the jail in Port-au-Prince who were given parole by an earthquake that had no legal authority for doing so. The last people that anyone wants on the street in Port-au-Prince would be off the street so that people trying to do humane work would have something less to fear. 

Strong on national security? Sure. Fight the war on terror as resolutely as ever? Of course; al-Qaeda has shown no signs of willingness to moderate its hatred and violence against the United States. We keep our humanity or we ourselves become terrorists.

Silly Rightist -- torture is for despots.

Jesse Ventura, what a reference...

Invoke Hitler is the point Goodwin. No discussion is possible. I will just say that americans are not germans, people are educated and there are no proofs that a majority supported jews extermination or witches execution. People are less stupid than you think.

Last, "torture" is a necessity if it can save the life of innocents (you know children, women and so on. People in the real life...). I'm with Jack Bauer on this !

[Eraserhead]

Fox News has always been awful at polling, so I doubt it's that far and away. He certainly is leading, though.

Opinion Dynamics isn't too bad.

[Psychic Octopus]

Fox News has always been awful at polling, so I doubt it's that far and away. He certainly is leading, though.

Opinion Dynamics isn't too bad.

I guess, but I don't think they are that good. I prefer Gallup.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

Since when?  I mean, the waterboarding's been done, but I don't think that's a bragging point.

cfr Brown. I am convinced that majority of the gop (and american people by the way, cfr rasmussen and pew polls) support waterboarding terrorists. And oppose the guantanamo closing. The Brown spokeman has said that it was an important issue in the election (in massach. !!)

waterboarding, don't close guantanamo,... = strong on national security and the war on terror. A great republican value.

If a majority of Germans supported persecution of the Jews (if not the Holocaust) in 1939, then would they have been right? When a majority of white people supported segregation and disenfranchisement of blacks with the terrorization of those who opposed those things long into the 1960s, would they have been right? If a majority of people in Salem, Massachusetts in 1692 thought it right to execute "witches", would they have been right?

Waterboarding is torture -- a crime. Jesse Ventura, a (I forget  -- Marine? Special Forces?) veteran said that if he were subjected to waterboarding he would confess to the Tate-LaBianca murders. Heck, I would probably confess to the murder of Bill Clinton (who is very much alive).

We should have closed Guantanamo when evidence leaked of prisoner abuse. It could now be used to house recent denizens of the jail in Port-au-Prince who were given parole by an earthquake that had no legal authority for doing so. The last people that anyone wants on the street in Port-au-Prince would be off the street so that people trying to do humane work would have something less to fear. 

Strong on national security? Sure. Fight the war on terror as resolutely as ever? Of course; al-Qaeda has shown no signs of willingness to moderate its hatred and violence against the United States. We keep our humanity or we ourselves become terrorists.

Silly Rightist -- torture is for despots.

Jesse Ventura, what a reference...

Invoke Hitler is the point Goodwin. No discussion is possible. I will just say that americans are not germans, people are educated and there are no proofs that a majority supported jews extermination or witches execution. People are less stupid than you think.

Last, "torture" is a necessity if it can save the life of innocents (you know children, women and so on. People in the real life...). I'm with Jack Bauer on this !

You miss the point. I bring up a different fallacy -- the appeal ad populum... that popularity of a position is evidence of its rectitude or truth. At one point, most "civilized" people believed that the Earth is flat and that the sun and stars circle it every 24 hours. That of course is past, and anyone who offers either of those discredited views is now discredited. Don't get me talking about evolution versus creationism.

I didn't bring up Der Phooey; you did. I brought up bigotry -- dehumanizing, dangerous, brutal bigotry. People can fall for mass delusions even if those delusions result in horrible consequences. The idea that torture works is one of them. If you don't want to associate torture with Der Phooey, then let me remind you that some leaders seem to love it -- like Mao Zedong, Agosto Pinochet, and Saddam Hussein.

Do you remember seeing old movies in which some Nazi or Soviet villain says this immortal line:

"Ve haff vays to make you talk!"

It sounds just as menacing in a Russian or German accent. Torture is about to begin, or at the least there is an injection of pentathol.  One dreads either excruciating pain or involuntarily betraying one's buddies.

Torture gets people to talk, but it is unreliable in getting people to tell the truth. People will say whatever causes the torturer insists upon hearing. Someone who truly knows nothing might spew nonsense; a downed flyer might say that the next bomb run is against Stuttgart even if he has no reason to know where the next bomb run will be. Someone suspected of espionage can easily fabricate a name, and if that name is "Peter Schmidt" or "Maria Ivanov"... lots of people  named "Peter Schmidt" or "Maria Ivanov" are going to experience very unpleasant near-death experiences.  


What's wrong with Jesse Ventura? I thought it a good quip. Putting someone in fear of immediate death or even severe injury is good for getting people to do anything. This is a tough fellow, an elite soldier and in turn a pro wrestler, someone well aware of the effects of pain. I am a wimp by comparison; I might confess to a non-existent crime just to avoid a third-degree burn or a compound fracture.  

When we do torture we do evil. Torture is a crime. When someone does unspeakable evil, what one did before that matters little. A murderer, robber, or rapist is above all else the crimes that he does. Yes, I know -- you think that if torture prevents some terrorist act it has justification. Do you believe in preventive retribution -- doing horrible things to people so that they can be prevented from doing something not an immediate threat?

Maybe we have alternatives. We can trick someone intent on committing a crime into believing that the crime has occurred, monitor the response. That's a common FBI trick -- and it does no harm to an innocent person.  



  

[Rowan]

Rasmussen 44/55

Gallup 47/47

Both record lows.

[pbrower2a]

The SOTU speech should be interesting. We will get to see President Obama at what he does best .

Does he have more? Can he address the economic morass?

The stock market has had three bad days. Maybe the bankers have more ability to mess with politics than politics has ability to mess with them. 

Campaign reform may be a matter of political survival in view of Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission

[Poundingtherock]

Obama's speeches are inconsistent.  He's on sometimes, off sometimes.

Just see the polling for his race speech.  It was horrible.

Link

[Zarn]

Rasmussen 44/55

Gallup 47/47

Both record lows.

Actually, he had 44/56 for Ras before.

[Poundingtherock]

Obama in Nevada

Daily KOs/Reserch 2K

Favorable/unfavorable: 45/50

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/1/20/NV/432

[Poundingtherock]

Obama approval rating for Rasmussen in Arizona and Indiana

Indiana: 43/56

Arizona: 43/57

[Rowan]

Arizona and Indiana updated



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[ConservativeIllini]

Seems to be hitting a low right now, I'd like to see some more polling on WI and PA.

[pbrower2a]

Indiana no change, Arizona added. Both are competitive, and the Republican nominee will be unable to win with either competitive. Arizona, so far as I know, has never voted for a Democratic nominee in a Republican victory of the Presidency, and Indiana  hasn't voted Democratic in a Republican win since the  nineteenth century.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green

Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

....

A strong GOP candidate would defeat President Obama in a landslide reminiscent of Reagan in 1980. Mediocre-to-poor, which is about all I see, loses.

Sources on Arizona and Indiana, please?

[Poundingtherock]

Sources:

Link AZ Governor

Link IN Senate

[GOP732]

This map is bleeding, Obama needs to find a way to stop the hemorrhage.

[5280]

I suspect that map to grow darker red over time

[Tender Branson]

Delaware (Rasmussen)

50% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Delaware was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 25, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

Florida (Quinnipiac University)

45% Approve
49% Disapprove

From January 20 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,618 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 673 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1417

[pbrower2a]

Delaware new, Florida update, Nevada no change. A tie disappears.

This is not how an incumbent wants approvals going into an election... if 33 hours can be an agony on election night with a critical state in the balance, and 33 days going into the election can be a seeming eternity, then what is 33 months?



I think my map more esthetically attractive than that of Rowan Brandon, if similarly accurate and relevant. The situation that this shows isn't pretty for either Democrats (including Obama) or Republicans. If I see any pattern, it is that the state-to-state polarization is shrinking.