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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1040192 times)
The Trump Virus
GWBFan
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« Reply #3525 on: January 13, 2010, 04:57:26 pm »


I'm the first to admit I'm not the brightest star in the sky but what does each color stand for on your map?

Just curious, thanks.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3526 on: January 13, 2010, 05:08:17 pm »

I'm not including numbers from the special election in my map(though in this case, nothing would have changed anyway).

I think it was a question regarding Obama directly.

Isn't that still based on the "likely voters" in the special election?

I'm not sure.  They might factor those out later.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3527 on: January 13, 2010, 07:24:09 pm »


I'm the first to admit I'm not the brightest star in the sky but what does each color stand for on your map?

Just curious, thanks.

Approval Ratings
30-39%- Dark Dark Red
40-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% but Approval is higher than Disapproval- Yellow
50-54%- Light Green
55-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3528 on: January 13, 2010, 07:25:43 pm »

Idaho(Greg Smith)

Approve 35%
Disapprove 54%

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/omnibusresultsotterobama122009.pdf

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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3529 on: January 13, 2010, 07:38:00 pm »

I guess that's good for us so we can wipe off a gray state on the map, but why is anyone polling Idaho right now? 

Must have some free time.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3530 on: January 13, 2010, 07:49:56 pm »
« Edited: January 13, 2010, 08:16:14 pm by pbrower2a »



December poll from Idaho:



This pollster seems to confuse "approval" in the write-up with "favorability" in the numerical statistics...  35-54 favorability is right in the middle of the second-to-worst category for Obama support, so I will use it, as it isn't close enough to the "worst" category.  Obama isn't going to win Idaho except in a 530-EV landslide anyway. Idaho doesn't get polled often enough for me to cast this one away.

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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3531 on: January 13, 2010, 08:09:13 pm »

The question asks for approval:

First, I’m going to name a few people you may have heard of. For each one, please tell me
how you rate their job approval – strong approve, somewhat approve, somewhat
disapprove, or very disapprove. If you haven’t heard of that person, please say so. The
first one is…

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3532 on: January 13, 2010, 08:17:56 pm »

I guess that's good for us so we can wipe off a gray state on the map, but why is anyone polling Idaho right now? 

Must have some free time.

Practice for something more difficult, perhaps?
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Alcon
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« Reply #3533 on: January 13, 2010, 08:26:48 pm »

More likely: Because it's an Idaho polling company who did a state survey and figured to gain some press for doing the Presidential too.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3534 on: January 13, 2010, 08:30:42 pm »

That's far more sensible than my guess, thanks.  Didn't realize it's just an Idaho polling company.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3535 on: January 13, 2010, 08:59:24 pm »

The question asks for approval:

First, I’m going to name a few people you may have heard of. For each one, please tell me
how you rate their job approval – strong approve, somewhat approve, somewhat
disapprove, or very disapprove. If you haven’t heard of that person, please say so. The
first one is…



OK, simply a sloppy write-up by the pollster. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3536 on: January 13, 2010, 09:50:19 pm »



http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/01/12/rel1b.pdf


Interesting polling question  from CNN/Opinion Dynamics:

(6. Do you consider President Obama  too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right?)

Jan 8-10, 2010

Too liberal                    46%
About right                   42%
Not liberal enough       10%
No opinion                     2%

(My conclusion):

If he gets half the support from those who think him "not liberal enough" for lack of a viable alternative, then he would win. That would still be 52.8%- 47.2%, which isn't far from Election 2008.

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Sewer
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« Reply #3537 on: January 13, 2010, 10:16:53 pm »

lol too liberal
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3538 on: January 14, 2010, 01:49:03 am »

New SurveyUSA Oregon & Washington numbers:

 

http://www.katu.com/news/local/81304817.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3539 on: January 14, 2010, 10:07:50 am »

Ohio (Rasmussen)Sad

46% Approve
50% Disapprove

This national telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 12, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_2010_ohio_senate_race_january_12_2010

Connecticut (Quinnipiac University)Sad

55% Approve
41% Disapprove

From January 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,430 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 542 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points and 378 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1412

Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor:

47% Approve
45% Disapprove

If the election for President in 2012 were held today, would you …?

Vote to re-elect Obama: 39%
Vote for someone else: 50%

The poll, conducted by Financial Dynamics, surveyed 1,200 adults between Jan. 3-7 for a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/01/majority_would.php
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3540 on: January 14, 2010, 10:20:34 am »

Oregon, Washington, Ohio, and Connecticut updated.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3541 on: January 14, 2010, 10:27:13 am »

Question to your map:

When Michigan was polled in December by EPIC and Rasmussen, they showed approval at 44-48% and disapproval at 50-56%, yet your map shows MI yellow.

When Rasmussen had NV at 49-50 yesterday it is red.

What is right now ? If you apply red for negative approval then MI must be colored red like NV.

I guess yellow is only for positive approval below 50% ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3542 on: January 14, 2010, 10:36:50 am »

New Jersey (FDU)Sad

48% Approve
41% Disapprove

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 801 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone from Jan. 4, 2010, through Jan. 10, 2010, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/skeptical2/final.pdf
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3543 on: January 14, 2010, 10:37:54 am »

Question to your map:

When Michigan was polled in December by EPIC and Rasmussen, they showed approval at 44-48% and disapproval at 50-56%, yet your map shows MI yellow.

When Rasmussen had NV at 49-50 yesterday it is red.

What is right now ? If you apply red for negative approval then MI must be colored red like NV.

I guess yellow is only for positive approval below 50% ?

Michigan appears to be a mistake on my part. It should be red, I don't know why it's yellow. The latest poll there was 48/50 and therefore should be red.

And yes, yellow is for positive approval but under 50%.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3544 on: January 14, 2010, 10:39:18 am »

New Jersey added. Michigan fixed.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3545 on: January 14, 2010, 10:44:00 am »

I wonder when someone polls Indiana ...

It has potentially close Senate and House races this year and was close in 2008.

I´ve heard that robo-polling is forbidden in Indiana, but it must have come into law after the 2008 elections, because IN was polled by robo-pollsters Rasmussen, SUSA and PPP prior to the election.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3546 on: January 14, 2010, 11:29:30 am »

Nevada(PPP)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Nev_114.pdf

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3547 on: January 14, 2010, 11:48:27 am »
« Edited: January 14, 2010, 11:51:09 am by pbrower2a »

Ohio, Oregon, New Jersey, Washington:




46% approval is probably enough to win Ohio.

The recent Nevada poll averages out with another for no real change.

... New Hampshire begs for a fresh poll. No way can New Hampshire be as unsympathetic to Obama as is Idaho.


Unlike Rowan Brandon, who distinguishes between "under 50%" and "over 50%" I go for "approval under disapproval" (shades of yellow to dark brown), a tie (white), and "approval greater than disapproval" (shades of green). It's strictly a matter of taste, and I can't say that one is more relevant than the other at this point.

If there is a real difference it may be that his suggests the idea that if the GOP has a really-strong candidate in the wings, Obama loses in places in which his approval rating is below 50%. Mine suggests that the GOP lacks someone capable of offering an alternative, and that many disgruntled conservatives will find the choice between an uninspiring right-winger and an effective incumbent cause them to not vote.    
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3548 on: January 14, 2010, 11:49:54 am »

... New Hampshire begs for a fresh poll.

NH was polled by Rasmussen in the last few days. I think he had 53% approval there.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3549 on: January 14, 2010, 11:55:12 am »

... New Hampshire begs for a fresh poll.

NH was polled by Rasmussen in the last few days. I think he had 53% approval there.

I'll take your word for it.


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