The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:12:53 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 129 130 131 132 133 [134] 135 136 137 138 139 ... 410
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1205658 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3325 on: December 23, 2009, 09:05:27 PM »

I love how pbrower is trying to cover his tracks now.

I try to stay consistent. Unbiased? Impossible! Anyone without bias would stay clear of this board.


As for the Age Wave -- it's more limited than you think.

What? Pbrower, you are the only person crazy about the Age Wave. I think it's a load of crap, as do most people with a working brain.

I discussed it a few times, recognized its limitations, and that it is slighter than almost everything else. If you don't want me to discuss it when other things are more significant at the time, then don't bring it up?
Logged
DariusNJ
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 414


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3326 on: December 23, 2009, 11:31:18 PM »

Sorry pbrower, you've been replaced.
Logged
GLPman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,160
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3327 on: December 23, 2009, 11:42:05 PM »

Sorry pbrower, you've been replaced.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3328 on: December 23, 2009, 11:47:17 PM »

Pbrower, you're trying too hard.  Your time is up, give the job to some young blood!
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3329 on: December 24, 2009, 12:25:17 AM »

He is completely in denial about being fired, it's best to just leave him alone for now.
Logged
The Duke
JohnD.Ford
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,270


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: -1.23

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3330 on: December 24, 2009, 01:16:49 AM »

He is completely in denial about being fired, it's best to just leave him alone for now.

What if he wants his stapler back?

Logged
Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3331 on: December 24, 2009, 01:19:50 AM »

Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3332 on: December 24, 2009, 01:52:55 PM »

Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,802


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3333 on: December 24, 2009, 02:28:36 PM »

Is there any chance the shading could be made more dramatic-- especially since there are only 2 or 3 shades max? It's hard to see the difference currently.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3334 on: December 24, 2009, 02:34:01 PM »

Is there any chance the shading could be made more dramatic-- especially since there are only 2 or 3 shades max? It's hard to see the difference currently.

I was thinking about that. Maybe something like a different shade for 55% or 60%?
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,802


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3335 on: December 24, 2009, 02:45:47 PM »

Is there any chance the shading could be made more dramatic-- especially since there are only 2 or 3 shades max? It's hard to see the difference currently.

I was thinking about that. Maybe something like a different shade for 55% or 60%?

That could work as well-- I was thinking of just more dramatic shades. The problem is the more granular you want to be, the less room you have to make the colors different from one another.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3336 on: December 24, 2009, 03:18:23 PM »

<40% with Disapproval Higher: 90% Red
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 60% Red
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Red
50% or <50% with Approval Higher or Equal: Yellow
51-55%: 30% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 90% Dark Green

Just throwing it out there. Don't worry about my feelings. Haha.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3337 on: December 24, 2009, 06:04:34 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2009, 07:52:38 PM by pbrower2a »

<40% with Disapproval Higher: 90% Red
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 60% Red
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Red
50% or <50% with Approval Higher or Equal: Yellow
51-55%: 30% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 90% Dark Green

Just throwing it out there. Don't worry about my feelings. Haha.

That's a good one, although I prefer yellow and green, with white for a tie. The "dark yellows" would become beige and tan. 10% yellow comes off as white.

Here's my proposal:
<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

50%  Approval Equal: 20% Green
51-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval). Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no poll within the last 180 days.

No push polls or polls from a political party or special interest (ethnic advocacy, union, gun-rights, pro-life or pro-choice, gay rights, religious group, advocates of specific legislation) should be accepted). College polls are OK.

Colors from over 180 days may be maintained only if the poll is reasonable (corroboration in other states with similar political histories or the previous election) without ambiguity. Ambiguity -- it goes gray.

  
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3338 on: December 24, 2009, 06:07:06 PM »

<40% with Disapproval Higher: 90% Red
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 60% Red
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Red
50% or <50% with Approval Higher or Equal: Yellow
51-55%: 30% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 90% Dark Green

Just throwing it out there. Don't worry about my feelings. Haha.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3339 on: December 24, 2009, 06:08:18 PM »

<40% with Disapproval Higher: 90% Red
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 60% Red
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Red
50% or <50% with Approval Higher or Equal: Yellow
51-55%: 30% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 90% Dark Green

Just throwing it out there. Don't worry about my feelings. Haha.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3340 on: December 24, 2009, 06:24:38 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2009, 06:30:30 PM by MagneticFree »

So according to all the polls gathered up, the modified Obama approval/disapproval should look something like this.


Red for dissapproval higher than approval from 30%-90%
Green for approval higher than disapproval from 30%-90%

Yellow - Tied approval & disapproval

30% - light shade
60% - medium shade
90% - dark shade

The numbers added in are the month the poll was taken.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3341 on: December 24, 2009, 07:26:39 PM »

So according to all the polls gathered up, the modified Obama approval/disapproval should look something like this.


Red for dissapproval higher than approval from 30%-90%
Green for approval higher than disapproval from 30%-90%

Yellow - Tied approval & disapproval

30% - light shade
60% - medium shade
90% - dark shade

The numbers added in are the month the poll was taken.

Net dissapproval in Maryland, DC, and Delaware?
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3342 on: December 24, 2009, 08:02:20 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2009, 08:06:38 PM by pbrower2a »

So according to all the polls gathered up, the modified Obama approval/disapproval should look something like this.


Red for dissapproval higher than approval from 30%-90%
Green for approval higher than disapproval from 30%-90%

Yellow - Tied approval & disapproval

30% - light shade
60% - medium shade
90% - dark shade

The numbers added in are the month the poll was taken.

Net dissapproval in Maryland, DC, and Delaware?

Fixed. Alaska and DC have never been polled, and NE-02 voted very differently from the rest of Nebraska, NE-02  most recently (but more than six months ago) showing a net positive rating for Obama.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3343 on: December 24, 2009, 08:18:47 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2009, 08:27:07 PM by RowanBrandon »

This thread has turned into a giant clusterfock.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3344 on: December 24, 2009, 08:23:25 PM »

Pbrower, why use letters for the months?  Just use numbers like normal people do when looking at the date.

January - 1
February - 2
March - 3
April - 4
May - 5
June - 6
July - 7
August - 8
September - 9
October - 10
November - 11
December - 12
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,042
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3345 on: December 24, 2009, 08:30:53 PM »

Look, let's just leave it to RowanBrandon.  He knows what he's doing.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3346 on: December 24, 2009, 09:15:21 PM »

Pbrower, why use letters for the months?  Just use numbers like normal people do when looking at the date.

January - 1
February - 2
March - 3
April - 4
May - 5
June - 6
July - 7
August - 8
September - 9
October - 10
November - 11
December - 12

Because

1. It is easier to put a letter on a state with little area than it is to put a two-digit number. New England gets crowded, Delaware is hard to see, and boxes for the congressional districts of Nebraska could be interesting. That won't matter again until October. after 2008 polls become irrelevant.

2. Numbers could suggest electoral votes and confuse people. Letters shouldn't be so hard to figure out, especially if I occasionally post the key.

3. Someone suggested that numbers would cause trouble if I tried to use numbers that would not be confused with electoral votes  (then it was "Add 70 to the number of the month") and I still had problems with the format -- problems that others insist that I change.

4. I would have to explain "S" and "Z" if everything else was a number. If someone transmits an approval poll with a transposition error, then do you think I want to show that it is an error?

5. I am slow to tweak my methods.

....

Because of the health-care legislation I may be tempted to start over if the national tracking polls for approval take a shift.  That legislation is quite possibly the most significant legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or Medicare (take your pick), and I suspect that a huge legislative success for the President and his Party will change the public opinion of both. Whether the legislation is right or wrong is of course a matter of taste. Success has many would-be fathers; failure is an orphan. Add to that the rancor over the legislative process comes to an end. The Tea Party protests will likely continue, but they won't be over health-care reform. 

After this bill, others are likely to seem either obvious or petty by contrast.   

 
Logged
ConservativeIllini
Rookie
**
Posts: 104


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3347 on: December 24, 2009, 10:33:09 PM »

Pbrower, why use letters for the months?  Just use numbers like normal people do when looking at the date.

January - 1
February - 2
March - 3
April - 4
May - 5
June - 6
July - 7
August - 8
September - 9
October - 10
November - 11
December - 12



That legislation is quite possibly the most significant legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or Medicare (take your pick), and I suspect that a huge legislative success for the President and his Party will change the public opinion of both.

 

I think it's fair that you believe that, but let me be the first to disagree.  Legislatively, this is a success, sure.  However, in what public opinion poll is this health reform bill popular?  A recent CNN Poll had the opposition at 61%, and I haven't seen any polls in the last few months showing over 50% favorability of this plan.  If you could direct me to a few, I will gladly eat crow, I just don't believe that there are many.

Given that the vast majority of the poor and uninsured, already are on record as approving of the President and this plan (because it will positively affect them and their financial state directly), it would take a majority of at least 55% to make a significant bump in the President's approval rating. Also, in my opinion, any bump will be temporary, because this legislation won't affect that many people, unless it is determined that people's health care plans will be taxed. 
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3348 on: December 24, 2009, 11:22:44 PM »


That legislation is quite possibly the most significant legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or Medicare (take your pick), and I suspect that a huge legislative success for the President and his Party will change the public opinion of both.

 

I think it's fair that you believe that, but let me be the first to disagree.  Legislatively, this is a success, sure.  However, in what public opinion poll is this health reform bill popular?  A recent CNN Poll had the opposition at 61%, and I haven't seen any polls in the last few months showing over 50% favorability of this plan.  If you could direct me to a few, I will gladly eat crow, I just don't believe that there are many.

There has been a well-organized, loud counter-campaign against the legislation. That is over. What remains to be seen is whether the legislation is reasonable or full of folly.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ironically, the 2008 election had the slightest link between income and voting in years. The poor of all kinds used to be reliable voters  for the Democratic Party; such remained so for Hispanics, blacks, and native Americans -- but not whites. Poor whites voted heavily for John McCain. I recall that such rich counties as Loudoun (Virginia), Westchester (New York), and Marin (California) voted for Obama. Some of the poorest counties in America -- those lily-white poor counties in southeastern Kentucky -- voted resolutely for John McCain.  McCain did not promise to increase welfare payments or offer any similar enticements. Go figure!
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3349 on: December 25, 2009, 03:21:11 PM »

How is this guys?



30-39%- Dark Dark Red
40-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% but Approval is higher than Disapproval- Pink
50-54%- Light Green
55-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Let me know if you guys have any suggestions.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 129 130 131 132 133 [134] 135 136 137 138 139 ... 410  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 1.201 seconds with 9 queries.