The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Dgov]

PPP Also polled the individual districts in Maine:
1st: 46-48
2nd: 41-54

[Dgov]

Looks like Obama's poll numbers are going up a bit. See: West Virginia, Texas.

I don't know about WV, but PPP's sample in Texas actually was more favorable to Obama in 2008 than the state as a whole.  McCain only won 52% of the 2008 vote in this group

[Dgov]

SUSA  Georgia: 35-61

http://www.13wmaz.com/news/breaking/story.aspx?storyid=90254&catid=4

(It's kind of buried in the lower section with a type, and SUSA doesn't yet have it on their site)

[Dgov]

SUSA  Georgia: 35-61

http://www.13wmaz.com/news/breaking/story.aspx?storyid=90254&catid=4

(It's kind of buried in the lower section with a type, and SUSA doesn't yet have it on their site)

The most depressing part about this poll? Deal leads by 11.

But I don't like Barnes Either.

Write-in: Mr. Potato Head

Would you have preferred Handel?

[Dgov]

PPP Released a National Poll:  Obama is 47-49 Approval

Interesting numbers include a Rebound for Obama with older voters, winning them 55-40 along with Young voters 61-34, but he gets crushed with the Boomers, 42-56.  Older Voters also approve of Obamacare by 48-40, so it's probably a bad sample.  Also, Hispanics only approve of Obamacare 50-45, which also might be a bad sample.

[Dgov]

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html

[Dgov]

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html

Not really. The only ones out of the norm of who we've been seeing is Delaware (Rass had it 50-50, but w/e) and Florida. FL seems to low. Everything else is about the same as what we've been seeing in general from PPP.

Oh, sorry, I forgot to mention that this was a poll of the states with competitive Senate Races, and Obama having below 50% Approval in all but 1 along with underwater approvals in all but 3 does not bode well for the Democrats.

[Dgov]

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Washington should be Yellow

[Dgov]

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html

IMPORTANT: these are not new polls, it´s just a collection of their prior releases to show Obama`s impact in Senate races !!!

Do not use these figures in your maps.

Wait, really?  Sorry, They didn't make that clear in the Blog post.

[Dgov]

I'm kind of curious here as to how the 44% Magic number works out.  There's a big difference between an incumbent with a 44-56 rating than one with a 44-44 or 44-20 one.

Also, Pbrower states that 8 of the last 13 Incumbents running fore re-election won.  Not only is this a small sample size, but 8 of 13 is only 61%, which is not exactly a solid number if you consider that people who have already won the presidency have proven that they can win the presidency (i.e. someone who has already made a free-throw is statistically more likely to be able to make another one than someone who hasn't).

On top of that, the sample studies incumbent Governors and Senators from 2006-2009, a rather narrow time-frame that coincides with two wave elections, but not a single incumbent presidential one.  To give an example (using Gallup polls), during their first midterms the last 11 presidents have had an average approval rating of 57%, and 6 of 9 won re-election (Kennedy and Johnson didn't run for re-election).  Among presidents polling at below 44%, both have won re-election (Reagan and Clinton), and among Presidents polling above 50%, 4 of 5 won re-election (The Elder Bush losing).  For the other 2, polling in-between 50% and 44%, they both lost (Carter and Ford).  That data suggests that there is no sort of linear correlation between Presidential approval numbers at approximately this time and their re-election chances.

[Dgov]

For that matter, bashing anyone.....even just over the internet....is pretty stupid.  Can't we all just get along?  We're all pretty much nerds, based on how much time and effort we all spend here (look at some your post counts...), we should all know how harassment and criticism and a few unkind words here & there can hurt!!

What?  People can be cruel an vicious over the internet?  Who would have though?

[Dgov]

 Maybe I should be more precise and say that "if the polls are like this in early 2012 (approval rating), I estimate this electoral result in November 2012". Polls are themselves estimates, and they can bounce around for no apparent reason.

Sorry, this was the base of my issues.  I Thought you were predicting re-election as of now.

[Dgov]

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Yet Another set of polls where the Republicans are doing uniformly better with Young voters than with the state as a whole (O'Donnell only loses them 47-43 too).  It remains to be seen if either PPP or these other polls have the age breakdown correct.

[Dgov]

PPP: West Virginia

30-64

[Dgov]

So Obama's seen some improvement in the Coastal South (Latest ras has him 51-48 in Florida), while seeing larger than average drops in the Midwest.

Unfortunately for him, that's unlikely to help his re-election chances, given that the GOP can afford to drop 5-7 points in that region if it means getting Obama underwater in Minnesota or Pennsylvania.

[Dgov]

CA (SUSA): 55-39

KS (SUSA): 38-59

OR (SUSA): 47-50

OH (SUSA): 40-56

WA (SUSA): 40-56 (Well, I have a hard time believing there´s a 35R-30D split among WA adults)

NV (POS): 45-52

I have a harder time believing Obama is doing better in Greater LA than in the Bay Area, that men approve of Obama 9 points more than women do in California as well.

Though SUSA's cross-tabs are getting more realistic in general.  Obama does a couple of points better with the under-34s than his statewide average, and the racial demographics are starting to conform better with actual vote totals.

Oh, and I think the WA results are supposed to be 38D-35R-27I, as their current values for D-R-I add to 92% (and their ideological values add to only 88%).  Using those numbers, his approval is about 43-52.  This poll has him at 27% with WA independent adults, which is hard to recover from by any weighting.

[Dgov]

Typo corrected!

Those who have made much of the gap between "Strongly disapprove" and "Strongly approve" can't deny this one. 

There's not really much of an improvement.  Obama's been at these sort of numbers for the last year or so, though the "Movement" is more him rising back towards his negative-teens average rather than the lower numbers of August.

Probably the GZ Mosque issue has blown over.

[Dgov]

South Carolina (Ras):

38-61

If there is some movement in the South East, South Carolina isn't feeling it.  Though admittedly it's hard for Obama to get good approvals in a state that gives Jim DeMint a 67% approval (which might just be the highest for any sitting Republican Senator right now), and where 71% of Voters want to repeal Obamacare.

Though I'm curious as to who are the roughly 10% of Likely voters that both approve of Obama and want to repeal his signature piece of legislation.

[Dgov]

Probably lefties who want single payer.  Polls that ask voters whether they oppose health care reform from the right or the left consistently get about 10% of voters opposing it because it doesn't do enough.

There was a poll last week that got an even more provocative result: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/120915-poll-many-voters-think-health-reform-too-conservative

Doesn't seem likely.  Every other poll I've seen has given the Republicans the edge on health-care issues, and I do not seriously buy that 40% of Americans disapprove of Obamacare because they don't think it went far enough.  That kind of sentiment would have sprung up more often and earlier this year while the legislation was still being debated.

On top of that, I don't think anyone who believes that Obamacare is too Conservative a reform wants to actually repeal it so much as add onto it whatever other reforms they want.

[Dgov]

Gallup put up it's weekly average: 44-48

Notable numbers include Obama slumping below Majority approval with Hispanics for the first time ever (though only to 49%), and a pretty clean 3-step age gap, with under-30s giving him 52% Approval, 30-65 year olds giving him about 44%, and the over-65 year olds giving him 36%.  The Gender gap is also reduced, with Men giving him 43% and Women giving him 45%.

He's at 51% in the East, 44% in the Midwest and West, and 39% in the South.

[Dgov]

PPP Illinois: Obama 44-49

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-in-illinois.html

If Obama is actually at 50% Nationwide and is only at 44% in Illinois, he's riding on a completely different coalition than he had in 2008.  Though this certainly goes along with the idea that the Midwest is the region of the country that is turning against Obama the most.

The sample here also voted for Obama by 15 Points when he won statewide by 25, which suggests that the enthusiasm gap exists and is very relevant, but also that Obama has lost a considerable number of his 2008 voters' support.

[Dgov]

lol, those numbers reverted back fast.

Usually when you have major national figures like Obama, approval ratings don't change much without obvious milestones.  Obama's been at the post-HC rut since late April, and not much politically has changed since then.

[Dgov]

(Ras) NM: 50-49

[Dgov]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.


Definite improvement in Obama's numbers.  Well off the lows.

Which is funny, because September has seen his monthly average approval numbers hit a new low, at 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_month_by_month

Though the numbers have shown remarkable stability throughout the year so far.

[Dgov]

No real surprises in the cross-tabs. Obama's approvals are worse in 18-45 than they are 45+. Who would have thought that with all the youth support Obama had in 2008?

The Youth vote has been all over the place lately.  I think it's just dueling turnout models really.