The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1206846 times)
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #25 on: September 28, 2009, 10:38:44 PM »

I actually think it would be better for Democrats to just let Obama lose in 2012. 
Why do you say that? Democrats want him to win obviously.  They worship the guy like he's god or something.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #26 on: September 28, 2009, 10:39:42 PM »

One has to wonder if Obama's approvals wouldn't be lower if the "frontrunners" for 2012 weren't so atrocious.

A possible explanation.

Is the talent in the GOP that weak?

Unless Obama fails catastrophically as President (a legislative failure on health care reform is not such a failure), he is unlikely to be defeated in 2012.

It's going to take a new Ronald Reagan -- some charismatic candidate who can not only exude confidence, state his case clearly, make a "conservative" agenda seem moderate, and cut into Democratic support in the so-called Blue Firewall.

That will be tough. The political polarization in 2008 will not vanish of its own accord.
You sir are an Obama leech.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #27 on: October 28, 2009, 10:55:00 AM »
« Edited: October 28, 2009, 10:58:08 AM by MagneticFree »

If I have a suspect poll, then tell me. I don't want a poll from a special interest, a push poll, or one from a suspect organization (some entity that makes up its own polls).  So you tell me when I include a poll from a labor union or a "gun-rights" group.

There will be suspect results -- outliers like the 54% approval in Massachusetts (We all know what Massachusetts is like; if it doesn't go for the Democratic nominee by a wide margin, then the Democratic nominee will lose) or a fishy one of 60% in Texas a few months ago (if the Democratic nominee is even within 10% in Texas these days, then the Republican nominee is in deep trouble).

Outliers tend to disappear -- or else show trends. The mid-month poll that showed Obama close in Tennessee looked like an outlier until I saw polls similar in range in Kentucky and Louisiana, states that generally move with Tennessee. Obama was absolutely clobbered in those states in 2008 even though Clinton won both states in 1992 and 1996. But what happens if he convinces people in those states that he is not the scary figure that they thought he was? Landslide 2012 as Obama wins states that unselectively vote for Democratic nominees or do so most of the time, the usual and reasonable swing states, and the Clinton-but-not-Obama states of 2008. Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia comprise 34 electoral votes, which is about like winning Texas.

Now what of the other side? Suppose that  Rasmussen comes out with a poll that reads like this:


Approvals, Barack Obama:

California  47% approve, 51% disapprove

(note that this is a fictional poll)

It could be an outlier. But if you see others like this in California, and other unflattering polls in unexpected places, then  Obama's popularity may be fading in a place that he has usually taken for granted because of its demographics and political culture.  (California's economy is in very poor condition). Maybe there are solutions "out there" that right-leaning politicians have yet to find, and should they find them those right-wing politicians might win in 2012.


  
If that was the case, then CA would be tossup and the rest is what I came up with.
DEM: 210
REP: 273
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #28 on: November 08, 2009, 08:19:32 PM »

It better not pass, I don't want an increase in my taxes.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2009, 08:47:42 AM »

It better not pass, I don't want an increase in my taxes.

So you're a rich?
I'm not rich or poor, just need to conserve my money.  I have student loans, car payment etc....
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #30 on: December 04, 2009, 01:46:28 AM »

When are we getting polls for WY, ND, SD, MS and SC?
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #31 on: December 16, 2009, 12:45:49 PM »

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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #32 on: December 22, 2009, 08:16:38 PM »

Fixed it...
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #33 on: December 22, 2009, 11:56:17 PM »

Didn't realize how much sense this makes with the red and green.  It's almost Christmas and it's perfect. We'll go with this color scheme instead!
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #34 on: December 23, 2009, 11:47:17 PM »

Pbrower, you're trying too hard.  Your time is up, give the job to some young blood!
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #35 on: December 24, 2009, 06:07:06 PM »

<40% with Disapproval Higher: 90% Red
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 60% Red
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Red
50% or <50% with Approval Higher or Equal: Yellow
51-55%: 30% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 90% Dark Green

Just throwing it out there. Don't worry about my feelings. Haha.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #36 on: December 24, 2009, 06:24:38 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2009, 06:30:30 PM by MagneticFree »

So according to all the polls gathered up, the modified Obama approval/disapproval should look something like this.


Red for dissapproval higher than approval from 30%-90%
Green for approval higher than disapproval from 30%-90%

Yellow - Tied approval & disapproval

30% - light shade
60% - medium shade
90% - dark shade

The numbers added in are the month the poll was taken.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #37 on: December 24, 2009, 08:23:25 PM »

Pbrower, why use letters for the months?  Just use numbers like normal people do when looking at the date.

January - 1
February - 2
March - 3
April - 4
May - 5
June - 6
July - 7
August - 8
September - 9
October - 10
November - 11
December - 12
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #38 on: December 25, 2009, 04:05:35 PM »

Looks like a damn Christmas US map, but good none the less.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #39 on: December 26, 2009, 01:26:42 AM »

Light blue?  Why not yellow, sort of like an intersection light.  Green for good to go, yelllow for ok, and red for stop or negative.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #40 on: December 26, 2009, 11:51:59 AM »

Why are you guys so focused on Virginia and Colorado?  If people are disapproving him bad there, then leave it red.  Jesus... Its like you guys want Obama to have him win it again in 2012, no....
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #41 on: December 26, 2009, 11:13:41 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #42 on: December 29, 2009, 12:03:49 AM »

Free market to do anything!
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2010, 04:14:25 PM »

When are we going to get polls from Wyoming, Vermont, Mississippi, and WV?
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #44 on: January 26, 2010, 12:46:14 PM »

I suspect that map to grow darker red over time
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #45 on: February 03, 2010, 11:42:13 PM »

When are we going to get a polling from WY?
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #46 on: February 24, 2010, 10:33:02 PM »

About time New Mexico changed from light green to yellow, I was expecting it to happen.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #47 on: February 28, 2010, 01:22:38 AM »

I would add Arizona to the list of western states with alot of Hispanics
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #48 on: February 28, 2010, 01:50:19 PM »

Alot of those polls are ridiculous to begin with.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #49 on: March 08, 2010, 03:43:36 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2010, 03:45:21 PM by MagneticFree »

Here's my prediction right now based on the polls and maps.

Gen REP - 290
Obama - 244

And it can change based on his performance from now until 2012 election cycle.

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