The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1082816 times)
Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
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« Reply #25 on: July 09, 2009, 02:10:23 PM »

Why is Gallup so different from Rasmussen?  Is it the Adult vs. Likely voters thing?

Probably. Many people who don't really know much about politics are generally Democrats (as to why, I don't know). However, if you don't vote, then your opinion of the President is irrelevant in my opinion. While interesting, it doesn't really matter because they don't vote and thus don't hold him accountable.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #26 on: July 18, 2009, 11:40:34 PM »

I say his approvals will be between 0% and 100%...
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #27 on: July 20, 2009, 09:06:53 PM »


Agreed. First, he needs to forge a consensus among Democrats. No wonder confidence is slipping, if they cannot so much as form a group of two Roll Eyes. Republicans, no doubt, will be scratching around somewhere in that dogma of theirs but, all the while health care costs were rising, emaciating the middle class and having a detrimental impact on economic growth and job creation, I don't recall them doing anything about it. Nero fiddled while Rome burned, but the Republicans only snored

Still maybe the president is pushing the ideological comfort zone - and conservatives are spinning what is pragmatically center-left as radical left - but that is leadership Smiley. Any Tom, Dick or George the Inept can cut taxes, that's as easy as pie but raising them, however, modestly, to - shock horror - pay for what is needed takes bottle

The primary role of government is the welfare, and the national security, of its people - and it doesn't run on fresh air

I'll be honest bipartisanship looks and sounds good - and it can be good Smiley - but I have sore misgivings as to whether Republicans are any more rational than they were when Bush the Inept was running the show. It infuriates me the state of things he broke his neck to bequeath

Hell, to think that I was looking forward to quiet life once Obama was elected. So much for the post-ideological era. It won't work when only one side is looking for solutions while the other lot seem to be doing their damdest to encapsulate Einstein's definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over, yet expecting different results

Hopefully the Republicans will be more like the Gingrich congress.

The problem Obama has is not selling universal coverage, people of all political views agree on that, but controlling costs. So far, he has yet to convince anybody that the health care bill will lower the rising cost of health care. Add the enormous budget deficit, and Obama is going to have a very hard time getting this legislation passed.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #28 on: July 21, 2009, 01:46:36 PM »

All these statewide polls tell me that Obama has only moderate approval in most states, but very strong in Democratic strongholds. This is good news for both sides in a way. The GOP can make inroads into lean-Dem states, while the Democrats have a solid wall of states they will almost definitely hold.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #29 on: July 24, 2009, 01:56:43 PM »


Virginia:

44% Approve (-15)
49% Disapprove (+13)

Who the hell did they call to get an (unrealistic) swing like that?

Or just maybe their VA poll before this one was unrealistic. Anywho, this seems close to right.

Not in a state which Obama carried by 6.3% it doesn't

Yes right now Obama's approval rating is 50-53 national, so VA would be somewhere in the 48-50 range. Like I said it is close to right, not right on the money.

I don't consider that particularly close to right. Anyway, I need to see the demographic base percentages to determine whether its plausible or not. Could be too few, or too many, of this, that and the other. I'm not buying any significant drop-off from moderates, given that the president is governing from the pragmatic center-left and isn't by any stretch of the imagination a radical, not from where I stand on the issues, at least, and I consider myself a Christian Democrat

Most polling firms show him with negative nation approvals with independents. It's usually around 40-60 with the 60 disapproving. Independents are ~27% of voters in Virginia. So if you have the Republican base, which is ~33%, and the Democratic base, which is ~39%, and the independents lean disapprove, then you get around the area that this poll was.

As to why independents are more disapproving of Obama, I personally think it has to do with the budget deficits.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #30 on: July 24, 2009, 10:56:06 PM »

You are talking about 15-16 year olds? They are very democratic.

Somewhat true, but a lot of teens are only democrat because Obama was running. Most teens don't know what the difference between a Republican and  a Democrat. I think the GOP needs to show teens the principles of the party.

Here's how most teens figure politics:
George Bush = Bad = Republican
Obama = God = Democrat

So most teens think since they like Obama then they are a democrat. When they mature, they will figure it out and become more conservative.

Very true. These teens will only know a country controlled by Democrats, so any mistakes will make the Democrats look bad in their eyes.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #31 on: July 30, 2009, 09:06:52 PM »


Probably due to the deficit spending and the over optimism when he sold the stimulus package.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #32 on: August 01, 2009, 07:13:20 PM »


Even though people think he's doing bad on the Economy, Health care and the deficit people say they would rather have Obama doing the job then the Republicans.

ROFL. Pwnage.

Except they don't Tongue

Gallup Poll
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #33 on: August 02, 2009, 10:40:36 PM »


Even though people think he's doing bad on the Economy, Health care and the deficit people say they would rather have Obama doing the job then the Republicans.

ROFL. Pwnage.

Except they don't Tongue

Gallup Poll
If you want to argue with CNN the biggest news network in the world, be my guest. I don't even see on there where it says people would rather have republicans taking over things then Obama.

Neither can I. :/

Please point it out for us slower people (if it's there that is).

People disapprove of Obama on healthcare and the deficit which implies (but doesn't necessarily mean) that the Republicans are trusted more. Either way, his numbers are slipping in these key areas.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #34 on: August 11, 2009, 04:37:12 PM »


NYT/CBS polls: LIBERAL SOURCE, LOLOL.
Rasmussen polls: Completely accurate and fair.

Also, since Republicans have engaged in tactics of organized disinformation, disruption, and outright lying, this should hardly be surprising.

Just like Democrats did with social security reform in 2005. Grin
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #35 on: August 17, 2009, 05:19:40 PM »


Doesn't matter because Ipsos and Rasmussen balance each other out.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #36 on: August 18, 2009, 01:16:43 PM »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

I agree. I think his approvals will drop below 50 in the Gallup poll at some point in September. From there he could continue to dive, stagnate, or rise, depending.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #37 on: August 18, 2009, 05:07:32 PM »

It's funny how hate can get conservatives so excited. (Honestly, they won't be able to do much beyond that for quite a while.)

Just like hate of Bush got conservatives so excited. Grin
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #38 on: August 20, 2009, 10:19:45 PM »


These numbers aren't even believable going by Rasmussen's own suspect national numbers. I'm sure he'll have a nice, saliva filled discussion with Hannity over them though.

Even if you account for Rasmussen's deviation from the average, disapproves still outnumber approves (I think).
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2009, 05:47:31 PM »

Georgia (Rasmussen)Sad

45% Approve
54% Disapprove

This state telephone survey of 1,200 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 18, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_georgia_healthcare_august_18_2009
Yeah for some reason I doubt that Obama has higher approval ratings in Georgia than Florida...

Well, the only explanation I can think of is that Florida has been harder by the housing crisis and the recession (due to drops in tourism) than Georgia.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #40 on: August 23, 2009, 12:39:09 PM »

So you said that Obama won the 18-29 vote in MT by a 61-37. Then why is his favorables with them only 51-47? Not much of an "age wave" if you ask me.

When reality set in, Obama isn't as cool and perfect as he was in the campaign. That said, he still has an advantage among them ATM.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #41 on: August 24, 2009, 08:08:30 AM »

The thing about 18-29 year olds, and other groups as well, is that their is no opponent to compare Obama too. When there is a Republican nominee, social issues will drive younger voters to cast ballots for the Democrats as they did for Kerry.

I think they would support Gingrich or Gary Johnson.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #42 on: August 25, 2009, 08:04:51 AM »

Gingrich is surprisingly strong with the youth. No doubt his intellectualism attracted some independents. I suspect that he would win more if he was the party's nominee because of the higher profile.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #43 on: September 16, 2009, 08:37:31 AM »

New Mexico (Albuquerque Journal / Research & Polling Inc.)Sad

53% Approve
37% Disapprove

Sept. 8-10, 402 registered voters, 5% margin of error

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nm_approval_ratings_albuquerqu.php

Interesting. In November New Mexico was advantage Democrat, now it seems to be at about the national level.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #44 on: September 17, 2009, 05:37:21 PM »

GJ with the maps pbrower!

Remember, higher turnout doesn't necessarily benefit Democrats, but those NJ numbers don't hold much weight.

The mountain west is interesting. Obama was very strong there for a Democrat in November, but they seem to not be happy about the gov't spending. Could we see Bennet and Reid ousted in 2010? That seems like a greater possibility every day.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #45 on: September 18, 2009, 10:59:56 AM »

Harry Reid is in deep political trouble; he is an ideologue in a moderate state. It could simply that he has passed the "sell-by" date.

Of course, he's not in as bad shape as the Republican Senator from Nevada, reasons having nothing to do with ideology.

Strange things can happen.


Indeed, though Ensign has the benefit of time.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #46 on: September 28, 2009, 07:40:44 PM »

One has to wonder if Obama's approvals wouldn't be lower if the "frontrunners" for 2012 weren't so atrocious.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2009, 10:04:20 PM »

Interesting, though not unexpected, that Obama is losing ground in the mountain west far faster than in the rest of the country. Wisconsin is a surprise as well.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #48 on: October 09, 2009, 06:20:16 PM »

Obama's approvals are basically hovering around what the popular vote in the election was. Those who voted for him still approve for the most part though some are probably frustrated with health care. I wonder when one side will start gaining as I cannot see this level of polarization lasting throughout the administration.
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Vepres
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #49 on: October 11, 2009, 09:40:23 AM »

Nevada checks in, and it has nothing to do with any Nobel Peace Prize:



Really, Nevada is a pipe dream for the GOP in 2012, and not because of the surprising margin for Obama in 2008. If it's close, then a bunch of California Democrats will have such a huge presence in the Obama campaign effort in Nevada, many will even take up legal residence in Nevada so that they can vote there. If it isn't close, then the Obama campaign will do that in Arizona instead.

The GOP can win in 2012 without Nevada, but it would have to win everything else that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004. 

I wouldn't be so sure. Nevada is pretty anti-federal government, at least rural voters are. Now, I don't have any data for Nevada, but I do know that Hispanics are starting to turn against Republicans in Colorado. Now, obviously, by turn against I mean going from 60 approve to 45 approve. Plus, the longer the Las Vegas real estate problems go on, the harder it will be for Democrats to regain those voters.

If Reid is somehow defeated, I think Nevada goes from lean-Dem to toss-up in 2012.
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