The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1082795 times)
Umengus
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« Reply #25 on: January 22, 2010, 02:14:35 PM »

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

Since when?  I mean, the waterboarding's been done, but I don't think that's a bragging point.

cfr Brown. I am convinced that majority of the gop (and american people by the way, cfr rasmussen and pew polls) support waterboarding terrorists. And oppose the guantanamo closing. The Brown spokeman has said that it was an important issue in the election (in massach. !!)

waterboarding, don't close guantanamo,... = strong on national security and the war on terror. A great republican value.
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Umengus
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« Reply #26 on: January 22, 2010, 06:46:43 PM »

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

Since when?  I mean, the waterboarding's been done, but I don't think that's a bragging point.

cfr Brown. I am convinced that majority of the gop (and american people by the way, cfr rasmussen and pew polls) support waterboarding terrorists. And oppose the guantanamo closing. The Brown spokeman has said that it was an important issue in the election (in massach. !!)

waterboarding, don't close guantanamo,... = strong on national security and the war on terror. A great republican value.

If a majority of Germans supported persecution of the Jews (if not the Holocaust) in 1939, then would they have been right? When a majority of white people supported segregation and disenfranchisement of blacks with the terrorization of those who opposed those things long into the 1960s, would they have been right? If a majority of people in Salem, Massachusetts in 1692 thought it right to execute "witches", would they have been right?

Waterboarding is torture -- a crime. Jesse Ventura, a (I forget  -- Marine? Special Forces?) veteran said that if he were subjected to waterboarding he would confess to the Tate-LaBianca murders. Heck, I would probably confess to the murder of Bill Clinton (who is very much alive).

We should have closed Guantanamo when evidence leaked of prisoner abuse. It could now be used to house recent denizens of the jail in Port-au-Prince who were given parole by an earthquake that had no legal authority for doing so. The last people that anyone wants on the street in Port-au-Prince would be off the street so that people trying to do humane work would have something less to fear. 

Strong on national security? Sure. Fight the war on terror as resolutely as ever? Of course; al-Qaeda has shown no signs of willingness to moderate its hatred and violence against the United States. We keep our humanity or we ourselves become terrorists.

Silly Rightist -- torture is for despots.

Jesse Ventura, what a reference...

Invoke Hitler is the point Goodwin. No discussion is possible. I will just say that americans are not germans, people are educated and there are no proofs that a majority supported jews extermination or witches execution. People are less stupid than you think.

Last, "torture" is a necessity if it can save the life of innocents (you know children, women and so on. People in the real life...). I'm with Jack Bauer on this !
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Umengus
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Posts: 2,288
Belgium


« Reply #27 on: January 27, 2010, 08:47:17 AM »

On Rasmussen, Obama's positive and negative numbers have not moved out of a 5 point range since the first week of December.

He's been at 46.5% +/- 2.5 points.  It is remarkably stable.

46.5% approval is enough to win re-election.

Does anyone notice that American involvement in Iraq has been shrinking? It is increasing in Afghanistan, which is to be expected.

it's not enough,  if the republican candidate is good.
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Umengus
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« Reply #28 on: January 31, 2010, 05:44:03 AM »

Actually, Gallup is showing somewhat of a negative bounce from his SOTU address.

That's disastrous for Obama to get no bounce or a negative bounce from a primetime speech.

Gallup is not a reliable source.
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Umengus
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« Reply #29 on: February 07, 2010, 02:09:34 PM »

The bounce was essentially technical. Come bak to the reality.
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Umengus
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« Reply #30 on: February 19, 2010, 02:36:51 PM »

California(SurveyUSA)
Approve 59%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=6f26c88d-dff4-4638-bf13-5f254c430dca




adult, not LV or RV.

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Umengus
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Posts: 2,288
Belgium


« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2010, 12:00:51 PM »

I dont see how Obama wins Nevada or Colorado again.  Those are both states that seem to go against the White House when Democrats hold it.  In 1996, Clinton lost Colorado after winning it handily in 1992 and came within 4,000 votes of losing Nevada after winning it by 13,000 in 1992. 

President Obama loses those states if he loses a big chunk of the Hispanic vote in those two states. It is that simple. Will he? It's 32 months until the Presidential election, and much can happen between in 32 months.

President Obama is not in campaign mode, and he does not have his political apparatus running.  He will have it ready to run at the least for two important Senate races in those two states. He owes much to Harry Byrd, and he is not going to let Harry Byrd go down without a fight.

It's easy to extrapolate a short-term trend... but I can still imagine much going right for President Obama over the next 32 months. One is Iraq; another is Afghanistan. Graceful exits from both will be huge accomplishments well appreciated.

As for the danger of extrapolating a trend, I wouldn't extrapolate the last twelve months of stock market activity:



In any event, economic conditions are much less dangerous than they were when President Obama took office.

OK -- Nevada was a surprise to everyone in 2008. Late in the campaign it was a toss-up, but the state went firmly for Obama -- probably because of the financial mess that hit young homeowners with huge mortgages hard.

I don't think that Obama can win Nevada as decisively in 2012 as in 2008 even against a certifiable nutcase as an opponent. Colorado is infamous for some of the most capricious voting patterns for any state.  



  

Not in campaign mode ? lol
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Umengus
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« Reply #32 on: March 11, 2010, 12:16:51 PM »

All of these Rasmussen approval numbers make zero sense to me and are wildly inconsistent.

lol

Humility
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Umengus
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« Reply #33 on: March 14, 2010, 05:13:54 AM »

Historic facts (2004 and 2008) prove that Rasmussen is the best (national) pollster. Hence, I trust him more thant others polls. And another very good pollster, SUSA, give the same results than Ras. If you disagree with that, you have a problem with reality (and you are probably liberal...).
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Umengus
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« Reply #34 on: March 30, 2010, 01:02:38 PM »

USA Today/Gallup (3/26-3/28, 1033 Adults - NOT THE TRACKING POLL)
47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-29-health-poll_N.htm

CNN/Opinion Research (3/25-3/28, 935 RV)
51% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/29/rel6b.pdf


For the same period, gallup gives different results... lol. Gallup is not better than zogby.
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Umengus
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« Reply #35 on: March 31, 2010, 05:51:42 AM »

USA Today/Gallup (3/26-3/28, 1033 Adults - NOT THE TRACKING POLL)
47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-29-health-poll_N.htm

CNN/Opinion Research (3/25-3/28, 935 RV)
51% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/29/rel6b.pdf


For the same period, gallup gives different results... lol. Gallup is not better than zogby.

It's called MOE.

lol
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Umengus
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« Reply #36 on: April 10, 2010, 01:32:42 PM »

Ras is curiously high.
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Umengus
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« Reply #37 on: May 25, 2010, 03:05:37 PM »

FDU has Christie's approval at 44/42, so who knows what SUSA is smoking.

And Rasmussen has the cristie approval in 50's. Susa is very curious on Cristie. And I think very wrong.
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Umengus
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« Reply #38 on: June 12, 2010, 01:59:44 PM »

"The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify."

lol
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Umengus
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« Reply #39 on: June 14, 2010, 12:56:54 PM »

He's at 49% in Michigan now. I have no idea how and it will always boggle me why a state that has an unemployment rate in the 20's is anywhere close to 50% approval for the sitting president. It completely confuses the hell out of me and I'm not sure I'll ever be able to understand. Yes I know there's more to life than having a good economy, but what else does Michigan have to be happy about?

the economy of the state is also of the responsability of the governor. And her popularity is low. Obama is not responsable for the specific problem of Michigan.
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Umengus
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« Reply #40 on: August 14, 2010, 03:21:51 PM »

Obama is in decline. The majority of polls show that he's in negative territory. Ironically, Rasmussen is one of the most positive for him...
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Umengus
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« Reply #41 on: August 15, 2010, 01:00:05 PM »


Mosque effect ?
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Umengus
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« Reply #42 on: August 22, 2010, 03:49:15 AM »


You have been looking at the July crosstabs, when Obama was at 30-66 in Kansas.

The August crosstabs have not been released yet on their site.

Ah, My Mistake.

In Other news, Obama's up to 43-50 in Gallup, suggesting their recent trend was a bit of an aberration.  It's still highly likely to be his worst week so far though, with an average of about 42% Approval Likely.

It was the mosque effect.
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Umengus
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« Reply #43 on: September 04, 2010, 11:14:50 AM »

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.



I doubt. people don"t trust Obama anymore. It's the second time that Obama is strongly down after a speech.
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Umengus
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« Reply #44 on: September 04, 2010, 12:28:25 PM »

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.



I doubt. people don"t trust Obama anymore. It's the second time that Obama is strongly down after a speech.

It's the poor economic numbers that have come out that are hurting him, his speech isn't going to help him out so much. I can see his numbers start to rebound once he does his tour and announces this new "recovery package".

What makes you so sure that after his last "recovery package", voters are going to give him the benefit of the doubt?  I for one think that anything he says now is purely political in nature and will almost certainly not be directed at the midterms rather than actually creating a recovery.

People aren't just going to arbitrarily hate Obama because he announces a recovery package. The GOP will, but normal voters are going to welcome it. People are pissed at him because he has been focusing on Health Care and the war and not paying much attention to the economy. His numbers were through the roof when the stimulus packages were signed. 

What the "normal voters" want is not another failed stimulus package that will coast us billions of dollars that we don't have to spend. What they want is for Obama to keep the Bush tax cuts for the time being and for the Government to stop spending money we don't have.

 "WERE RUNNING OUT OF MONEY! QUICK, LOWER TAXES!!!"


Can you offer some polling as to deduce what the "normal/independent voters" want? As MK ULTRA said, it's what you want, not what independent voters want.

Except GOP approval to drop drastically once he starts his tour, and Indy and Dem votes to increase slightly.



Independent voters prefer tax cuts to spending. A new stimulus will be very unpopular. the next marketing operation (recovery package) will be a flop. People are not stupid.

My opinion is that Obama will not save the house. And when he speaks, gop chances improve.
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Umengus
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« Reply #45 on: September 05, 2010, 04:31:08 AM »


The One has lost his aura...
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Umengus
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« Reply #46 on: September 05, 2010, 12:06:48 PM »

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.



Oh! Great news! Lets spend some more.

Independant voters are not conservatives, as much as you want that to be true. They aren't going to care how the economy is fixed, just that Obama is focusing on it again. His numbers have been bad because he was focusing on health care for a year, rather than setting up new jobs and trying to fix the economy.

you are naive... People are not so stupid...
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Umengus
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« Reply #47 on: October 16, 2010, 01:40:49 PM »

The last 4 polls (rasmussen, gallup, fox and ipsos) give the same result: 43 %. (but with different populations: adult, RV or likely voters...)

For some weeks, Rasmussen is the reputable pollster who has given the best result for Obama.

I don't understand how it's possible that gallup gives 43 % with adults and Rasmussen 47 % with likely voters. Adults are more pro-obama that likely voters... can you explain that ? because it's more than "a bad sample".
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Umengus
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« Reply #48 on: November 03, 2010, 08:48:28 AM »

Considering the cnn exit polls and assuming the fact the republican candidate is a good one (not sarah palin...), obama would have losen if presidential election was yesterday.
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Umengus
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« Reply #49 on: July 17, 2011, 02:56:48 AM »

if Obama is at 40 % on election day, he will win against Palin but he will lose against Romney or Perry. Opponents count.
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