The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[tmthforu94]

For the record, Bush Jr's approvals on Gallup on  7/19-22/01 were 56/33 and Clinton's on 7/19-21/93 were 41/49. Obama's not doing disastrously bad by comparison, although President Bush's numbers held up through August and then, as we all know, shot up after 9/11.

True, but there wasn't the huge drop with Bush that there has been with Obama. That's why it's getting more attention.

[tmthforu94]

Rasmussen Reports

Approve 51%   
Disapprove 48%

What a one sided Poll!

RealClearPolitics.com Average Approval

Approve 54.8% (-1.1%)

Disapprove 40.8% (+1.9%)

Spread +14.0% (-3.0%)

If Rasmussen was one-sided, he would be in the low 40's. It's only a few points lower than the national average.

[tmthforu94]

Rasmussen:

Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%

=o

Ahh, Obama's first negative approval. Given how different Rasmussen is compared to others, I expect the nexting polling to give Obama a negative approval will be early August.

[tmthforu94]

CBS News

Approve 58%
Disapprove 30%

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/07/29/opinion/polls/main5196563.shtml

Ugh
Polls like these and Rasmussen mess up the average.

[tmthforu94]

Arkansas - Wilson Research Strategies (R)

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

(Mike Beebe)

78% Approve
15% Disapprove

(Blanche Lincoln)

49% Approve
40% Disapprove

The poll was commissioned by Talk Business Quarterly, a magazine headed by Stephens Media columnist Roby Brock. Washington-based Wilson Research Strategies (R) surveyed 600 likely Arkansas voters by phone July 13-15.

http://arkansasnews.com/2009/08/12/poll-beebe-has-78-percent-approval-rating-lincoln-49-percent/

Something interesting from this on Lincoln, is that only 27% of voters will definately vote for Lincoln in 2010, meaning Lincoln could be somewhat vulnerable, with the right opponent. Huckabee would probably easily beat Lincoln, if he ran.

[tmthforu94]

If the election was today, I would put the map at something around this...

With the corruption with Governor Sanford, South Carolina is a state Obama might be able to win in 2012, if he can raise his approval rating. Tennesee's poll is extremly out of date, so I'm basically trying to go off the polls of states around it. Polling in Indiana would be appreciated as well.

[tmthforu94]

Nebraska(Research 2000)

Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 61%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/19/NE/349

Taking the Age Wave into account, Obama should still be competitive in NE-02, and will get around 42-45% statewide.

[tmthforu94]

People are being too dramatic on the death panels. It's not nearly as huge of an issue as some are making it to be.
Just a small note, Obama's Gallup approval rating is tired with Rasumussen's. So I guess Gallup is now a Republican hack poll, too.

[tmthforu94]

By 2006 they recognized that the gig was up. They could rig a small margin and make things look close, but not a huge gap. In 2008 the gap got even larger because of GOP bungling of the economy.

Do you have any proof that Republicans rig all of these elections, or is this just you in denial of the fact that a high % of Americans actually like Republicans?

[tmthforu94]

I can recognize the Alabama poll as spurious, but NE-02 isn't. Obama actually won it, and the poll for Nebraska was statewide.

The R2000 poll was 36-61 favorable for Obama, but he got 42% on election day.

Obama won NE-02 just slightly and approval ratings are generally lower than favorables, so I doubt Obama is in positive territory considering these statewide numbers.

You forgot about the Age Wave. Obama will get back everything he has lost so far, including Missouri and Montana, because of the Age Wave.

[tmthforu94]

I can recognize the Alabama poll as spurious, but NE-02 isn't. Obama actually won it, and the poll for Nebraska was statewide.

The R2000 poll was 36-61 favorable for Obama, but he got 42% on election day.

Obama won NE-02 just slightly and approval ratings are generally lower than favorables, so I doubt Obama is in positive territory considering these statewide numbers.

You forgot about the Age Wave. Obama will get back everything he has lost so far, including Missouri and Montana, because of the Age Wave.

I hope that's sarcasm?

Even in 2012, the recession will still be Bush's fault, and the new voters will realize that, therefore, at least 60% of them will automatically vote for Obama. It's a given fact...

[tmthforu94]

Yeah, NE-02 should probably be orange.

Obama's still doing decent nationwide, and he won NE-02, so it'd be close. But once you factor in the Age Wave, Obama would comfortably win it if the election was today.

[tmthforu94]

Why are people always pissing on Pbrower2a? As i understand it, he's not claiming that Obama will win this type of electoral victory in 2012, he just makes maps that take into account the polling data of today and then makes a projection of how it can be in 2012 if everything stays like it is today.
Things will stay like today? not likely. Is this unnecessary? You could say so. A bit dense? definitely. But apart from that i don't see anything wrong with what he's doing with the maps.

Even in his last post he said "I do not claim that either will happen"

Of course i could be mistaken but I've seen no indication that this guy thinks that the data for today will be exactly what will happen in 2012

Because he is a Democratic hack, and always rambles on about how the "Age Wave" will cause Obama to easily win re-election, even though little polling has been done on these new voters. It's an assumption that the youth will like our black president.

[tmthforu94]

I just see too many political strengths -- superb orator, good political strategist, ability to appeal to voters that the other Party takes for granted, shrewd use of media...

Hitler had many of those qualities too, but he was still  unpopular. That stuff might help him in his first election campaign, but people will be voting on how he did as a President, not how well of a speaker he is.

[tmthforu94]

CNN National:

Approve: 58% (+5)

Disapprove: 40% (-5)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/09/15/obama_approval_rises.html

Democratic hack poll...

[tmthforu94]

*Sigh*
Do you even read what it says, pbrower???

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_916.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[tmthforu94]

Quote:

Barack Obama’s approval rating among likely voters for this fall’s
Gubernatorial election has dropped to just 45%, with 48% disapproving of him.
Those numbers are down a good bit from PPP’s last survey of the state in July, which
found his approval at 53/39. While Obama is steady with Democrats he has dropped a
good deal with both Republicans and independents. Among GOP voters his approval has
dropped from 20% to 12%. With unaffiliated ones it’s an even steeper decline from 48%
to 36%.

"Likely voters in a midterm election (2010)" means something very different from likely voters in a Presidential contest. That is why I cannot accept this polling result.

Because I had a bug in Adobe Reader I was unable to read the PDF until a few minutes ago.

Midterm elections are very different from Presidential elections; they have far lesser participation, and such elections tend to be more Republican than those in Presidential years.

wtf? Polls include Senate races all the time, and you have no problem including them. Your problem with this poll is it will turn New Jersey yellow. You would have accepted this poll if Obama was doing good in NJ.
Please quit making maps, and let someone else do it who isn't a hack for either side.

[tmthforu94]

I don't know whats with all the letters, so I'm changing it back to numbers.
I will not be picking and choosing which polls to put on.

[tmthforu94]

When making the map, tick off the box that shows Congressional Districts - since most of the polls for either Nebraska or Maine are going to be state-wide anyway... And if we're having Green >30% for >50% ties, we should have Yellow >30% for <50% ties.

There. I tried accommodating all of your suggestion. A tie is now tan.

[tmthforu94]

North Carolina goes from 40% disapprove-50% disapprove. Connecticut goes from 60%-50% approving.

[tmthforu94]

I kind of want to change the yellow states to red states. Granted, that is a party color, but red means negative. I might start doing that.

[tmthforu94]

Updated with Virginia...

If the election was today, I would predict this as the map...

[tmthforu94]

Maine(KOS)

Favorable 68%
Unfavorable 23%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/16/ME/376

LOL Kos, he doesn't he try to hide his bias(or just awfulness).

This poll is one that just isn't believable, like the Texas one in March that had Obama at 67% approval. Assuming 100% of Democrats and Independants favored Obama, still, at least 17% of Republicans would have to approve of him too.

[tmthforu94]

Maine(KOS)

Favorable 68%
Unfavorable 23%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/16/ME/376

LOL Kos, he doesn't he try to hide his bias(or just awfulness).

This poll is one that just isn't believable, like the Texas one in March that had Obama at 67% approval. Assuming 100% of Democrats and Independants favored Obama, still, at least 17% of Republicans would have to approve of him too.

Here's the split:

                           FAV             UNFAV     NO OPINION
ALL                           68              23             9
MEN                           63               29                   8
WOMEN                   73              17                 10
DEMOCRATS           89                5                   6
REPUBLICANS           35              54           11
INDEPENDENTS   74              17                   9
18-29                   72              18                 10
30-44                   71              20                   9
45-59                   65              26                   9
60+                           62              30                   8

Maine is not a normal state; it is one of the most liberal in America, the sort that goes for a Republican nominee for President only  in a 40+ state landslide. 

Early October it appeared to be close. If the election had been the beginning of October, McCain probably would have won a congressional district. It was also close in 2004. One poll actually had Bush ahead

[tmthforu94]

If the election was today, I would predict this as the map...

.... lol

Explain. I basically went off polling and 2008 results.