The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Smid]

I think there's a good chance the Republicans will be reduced to Utah, Idaho and Wyoming. It's even possible they could lose Utah if they pick the wrong kind of candidate.

[Smid]

30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

O=Obama '08 State
M=McCain '08 State

Trying out my own color scheme - I don't like PBrower2's or JBrase's, so I'm trying this one out. Let me know what you think.

I don't mind your colour scheme. I think red v green is a good indicator of approval/disapproval. The only thing I'd change is getting rid of the Maine and Nebraska CDs (unless a poll specifically separates them) - otherwise you're guessing and that sort of guess work is not polled and shouldn't be included in a poll map. You can get rid of the CDs by using a map from (I think) the 1964 election (?) something like that.

[Smid]

Anyways, here's mine, I removed Congressional Districts on request and added the Maine poll:

Looks good, thanks!

I think you're making the right call on media polls - and by spelling it out in advance and making a blanket decision about it now, no one can accuse you of bias/hackery later when you don't include one.

[Smid]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%,  +1.

It could be an over anti-Obama sample; if so, it should be out in the next three days.  There does appear some slight erosion in Obama's numbers.

101%?

Probably a rounding error - 44.5% and 55.5% would round to 45% and 56%.

[Smid]

Current map:


 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   139
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  
[/quote]

I note that you have shaded Texas white on the basis of a suspect poll? It wasn't something I'd noticed before because I usually only look at your yellow/green polling map and make my own judgement on how that may play out electorally. The very negative (and likely suspect) poll for Oregon made me wonder if you will use those figures in your projection to show Obama losing the state, so I looked up how you've treated suspect polls previously in your prediction maps.

[Smid]

Do you support or oppose requiring girls entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against the human papilloma virus, also known as HPV?

22% Support (27% D, 17% R, 21% I)
57% Oppose (51% D, 64% R, 56% I)

I am astonished the opposition figure is so high, even among Democrats and Independents.

[Smid]

Do you support or oppose requiring girls entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against the human papilloma virus, also known as HPV?

22% Support (27% D, 17% R, 21% I)
57% Oppose (51% D, 64% R, 56% I)

I am astonished the opposition figure is so high, even among Democrats and Independents.

I think if you changed the question a little you would see the figures flip.

Indeed. The implication of the question is mandatory, no opt-outs. Even I would disapprove.

Well that's a bit more of a reasonable explanation of the figures, then, I guess. I certainly hope that a re-wording would result in an entirely different set of figures.