The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen has blipped up a couple points, Gallup has blipped down a couple points.

Everybody and their dog who who has done a poll recently has Obama between 42 and 45%, excepting the Internet folks (Planet Z, YouGov, etc) and Gallup which seems to be centered a couple points below the consensus average.

It's pretty easy to get fixated on the noise, but remembered the 19 out of 20 thing..

You expect one or two blips a month from a daily tracking poll

Obama is in the mid to upper part of the 40% to 45% band..... there is a bit of noise centered around this band...

[The Vorlon]

Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.

And only 970 days into his presidency.....  The chap is a quick learner, I'll give him that..

[The Vorlon]

POS/Crossroads GPS (R):

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

Public Opinion Strategies completed a national survey on September 17-19, 2011 among 800
likely voters, including 120 who have cell phones only. Crossroads GPS bought some questions
on the survey, which has a margin of error of +3.46% in 95 out of 100 cases.

http://pos.org/documents/crossroads_gps_sept_2011_memo.pdf

Rasmussen is still 46-52 today, while Gallup is 42-49.

POS is a very good pollster, arguably the very best.  Most know them as 50% of the WSJ/NBC poll they do in conjunction the Peter Hart (D) of Hart Garin Yang.

POS is just about the only firm that was in the game in the Nevada Senate race last year showing Reid with a 5% lead.

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

Not much change.  I'm back from an undisclosed location, with palm trees.

Welcome back...

Palm trees... hmmmm.....

Gallup back to 39+ / 51-

RCP average steady as a rock at 43/51 or so.

Some movement beneath the top lines.

Obama is somewhat firming up his base, the most liberal parts of the Dem coalition are starting to get back in line, which is masking a continued erosion among independents if you look simply at the top line numbers.  This is why Rasmussen is going in the wrong direction as everybody else because his hard weighs trail reality by an average of 45 days.

Obama's "favorability" (as opposed to job approval) is eroding fairly badly, which is not a good sign for him.

[The Vorlon]

For Fox News

http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2011/09/29/fox-news-poll-obamas-job-performance-if-were-ceo/

Bipartisan poll conducted by:
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)

The poll is based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 925
registered voters, and was conducted September 25-27, 2011 in the evenings.

Democrats (n = 382)
Republicans (n = 338)
Independents (n = 189)

Job Approval = 43+ / 51- (-8 net)  -1 / +4 from previous poll

Independants 31%+ / 55%- (-24% net)

Imagine for a moment that instead of being president of the United States for the past few years that Barack Obama had been the president of a major U.S. company. Based on Obama’s job performance, do you think the board of directors and shareholders would have fired him by now or would he still be in charge of the company?

Fired by now 52%
Still in charge 38%
(Don’t know) 10%

Which comes closer to your view -- the government’s loan to Solyndra was based on unethical behavior OR was it a good faith loan that went bad?

All RVs

Unethical Behavior:       46%
Good Faith Loan that went bad:  46%

Independants

Unethical Behavior:       51%
Good Faith Loan that went bad:  38%

Interestingly...21% of GOPers give Obama the benefit of the doubt here.

[The Vorlon]

I still find it excessively odd how different Rass and Gallup trend. I know a good deal of it is with their weighting schemes, but still.

Rasmussen and Gallup are, methodologically, just about as far apart as two polls can be.

Today Rasmussen is -10 (+44/-54) and Gallup is -6 (+43/-49)

Been quite a while since Gallup was above Rasmussen for an extended period of time.

We shall see

[The Vorlon]

Obama Average Approval Rating September 2011 (Gallup)

41% Approve

51% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Presidents with positive approvals:

Eisenhower: 71/16 (September 1955) Net = +55 - Won Re-election
Bush I: 68/23 (September 1991) - Net = +45 - Defeated For re-election
Truman: 55/29 (September 1947) Net = + 26 - Won Re-election (Media coverage not withstanding)
Roosevelt: 56/37 (September 1939) Net = + 19% - Won Re-election
Ford: 45/38 (September 1975) - Net = +10 - Defeated For re-election
Bush II: 51/45 (September 2003) - Net = +6 - Re-elected
Reagan: 47/43 (September 1983) - Net = +4 - Re-elected
Clinton: 46/44 (September 1995) - Net = +2 - Re-elected

Presidents with negative approvals:

Johnson: 38/48 (September 1967) Net = - 10 "If Nominated I will not run, if Elected I will not serve"
Obama: 41/51 (September 2011) - Net = -10 - TBA
Carter: 33/54 (September 1979) - Net = - 21 - Defeated for Re-election
Truman: 32/54 (September 1951) Net = -22 - Did Not seek second Full Term




For a president to be deeply underwater seems to predict not getting another term, - though Carter was the only one who actually choose to face the electorate.

Having a positive approval rating, while clearly better than having a negative one, is no guarantee of re-election, though one could argue that Bush I was unusual (Post Gulf War 1 afterglow) and also Ford (Post Nixon "let the healing begin" Honeymoon)  had "distorted" approval ratings  14 months out from their re-election bids.*

Gerald Ford - Only President to ever become president without having been elected as either President or Vice President (Became VP when Spiro Agnew resigned as VP)

[The Vorlon]

 The get-rich-quick schemes that marked American economic life from about  1963  1981 to 2007 2011 can no longer work.  

I corrected your typos for you













1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.
2. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.
4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.
5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation.

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While I could have discounted the prior numbers as a bad sample, this probably isn't one so close to the last.  It looks like there is some, perhaps major, decline in Obama's numbers.

We'll see what happens with Gallup.

A big chunk of Obama's "mini surge" in Rasmussen (when he got back up to the 45%-46% range for a few days) was likely just an artifact of Rasmussen's "likely voter" screen and the fact his partisan ID weights have a long time base.

When ever Obama "goes on the offensive" and tosses out some "red meat" to the Democratic base, a % of then get more enthusiastic and interested in all things political, and thus are deemed more "likely" in Rasmussen's screening and hence more likely to make it into the sample pool.

Close in to an election (say +/- 90 days out or less) Likely voters are clearly the way the poll, but 14 months out they actually tend to be a bit more volatile than a RV poll.

Regarding "some, perhaps major, decline in Obama's numbers".. On May 25th, 2011 Obama was +10.1% on the RCP average of approval polls...  Today (despite a Ra^ther interesting CBS sample showing 44/44) Obama is at -9.6% - This is a net shift of 20% in 4 months.... that is not a "decline" that is a meltdown.....  That is Richard Nixon post Watergate territory.

What is perhaps even more important than the raw approval is the favorability numbers.  This far out, job approval goes up and down with the events of the day, but favorability (essentially, "do ya like the guy") has turned to a net negative.



When (almost) a majority of the electorate just don't like you, you're in deep doo-doo....

32.7% approval on the economy (also on an implosion trendline) - These numbers are starting to look really ugly....

[The Vorlon]

Gallup must be really taking drugs or something.

38-54 today, when every other pollster now has him between 43% and 47% approval.

Gallup runs off on it's own now and then (in both directions)

Gallup's survey methods are actually very good, so good in fact that they reach a big chunk of the electorate that other firms rarely get to in their sample design.

This hard to reach part of the population tends to swing very wildly as they tend to be quite apolitical and react more to the news of the day than any defined political leanings.

Right now there is a bit of a negative air about Obama, and Gallup reflects this.  If Obama has a few good weeks, things will swing 15 points the other direction.

But yes, the bloom is definitely off the rose with respect to Gallup.  They were the Gold Standard, now they are just a quirky member of the pack.

[The Vorlon]

Gallup, Obama:

approval     38%
disapproval 54%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

-4 and +4, respectively.

As I said, I'm waiting for it to consistently be below 40%.  

Wow.. a tad volatile, even for Gallup

Gallup works best with a 30 day rolling average.. which says +41/-51 => -10 or so.

[The Vorlon]

Democracy Corpse (D)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/Democracy_Corps_102011.pdf


Strongly approve ..................................................................21
Somewhat approve ..............................................................19
Somewhat disapprove..........................................................11
Strongly disapprove .............................................................42

Total approve......................................................................40
Total disapprove ................................................................53

[The Vorlon]

Gallup:

Approve 42
Disapprove 50

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx



Bouncing around a lot, even for Gallup.

30 and 60 day averages are staying at -10 or so.

Looking at all the polls Obama may be firming up a tad.

When in doubt - look at the NBC/WSJ poll which says 44/51, which to my eyes looks pretty darn close to reality.

[The Vorlon]

Or just noise.

When Gallup is running off on it's own, usually the best bet

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 18%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.


The Strongly Approve number is now at a record low, though it just could be a natural swing.

Pretty much the same strong approve / strong disapprove numbers that Democracy Corpse (D) got. - 21 versus -22.


Strongly approve ..................................................................21
Somewhat approve ..............................................................19
Somewhat disapprove..........................................................11
Strongly disapprove .............................................................42

When Bush was in the mid to high 40s in 2003 and 2004, at  least his "strong approve" numbers were still not too far off his strong disapprove.

In the context of such a large enthusiasm gap, Obama's efforts to throw some "red meat" to the Democratic base make a lot of sense. - Bush beat Kerry in 2004 (mostly) because the Bush folks loved Bush a bit more than the Kerry folks hated him.  I think Obama's more class warfare (edit, trying to resist trolling tendency) "populist" focus of late lies in the reality.

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

we are not quite there, but we are starting to get the the point in time where these approval ratings begin (very dimly) to have some predictive value.

Starting early next year they start to mean something.

the head to heads are, of course, meaningless.  PEW did a poll and found that less than 50% can, unprompted, name even one GOP presidential candidate, so the head to heads are jibberish.

The only poll that is semi-meaningful right now is Obama's "deserves to be re-elected" and/or Obama versus the mythical generic republican.

Obama's getting low 40s on both of these.  Not good, but not dead in the water either.  I would call it somewhat to the darker side of the grey area at this point.

[The Vorlon]

I guess we just disagree on the facts.

Let's look at Gallup approval ratings of all presidents starting with Truman eligible to seek re-election, and see how they did versus the 1st quarter Gallup approval ratings in the year of their (potential) re-election:

Gallup approval ratings - Last poll in 1st quarter of (potential) re-election year:

Sorted from most popular 1st quarter of the election year to least popular:

Presidents Over 50% - Every single one re-elected

Eisenhower 1956 - 1st Quarter approval - 1956 => Low to mid 70s approval => Re-elected

Johnson 1964 - 1st Quarter 1964 => mid 70s approval => Re-elected

Reagan 1984 - 1st Quarter 1984 => 54%  => reelected

Nixon 1972 - 1st Quarter 1972 => 53% approval => Re-elected

GW Bush - 1st Quarter 2004 = 53% approval => Re-elected

Clinton 1996 - 1st Quarter 1996 = 52% approval => Re-elected


President who polled 46% to 50% in 1st Quarter lost very narrowly

Ford 1976 1st Quarter 1976 => 50% approval => Very Narrowly defeated


Presidents Below 50% - Every single one defeated or choose not to seek re-election

Obama - Fall 2011 - 43% +/- - Result TBA

GHW Bush - 1st Quarter 1992 = 41% => Defeated

Carter 1980 - 1st Quarter 1980 => 39%  => defeated

Johnson 1968 - 1st quarter 36% approval => Choose not to seek re-election

Truman 1952 - 1st Quarter 1952 - 36% approval => Choose not to seek re-election




Hmmm..

The 50% rule in the 1st quarter of the election year has gone 11 for 11 and predicted re-election (or not) with 100% accuracy in every presidential election since Truman....

Naturally, "Rules of thumb" work perfectly till they don't work anymore, but that being said:

The "50%" rule was not pulled out the air, it has a solid historical basis....

If you think Obama's 43% gets him 4 more years you are... at odds with the historical data...

[The Vorlon]

The only poll that is semi-meaningful right now is Obama's "deserves to be re-elected" and/or Obama versus the mythical generic republican.

Obama's getting low 40s on both of these.  Not good, but not dead in the water either.  I would call it somewhat to the darker side of the grey area at this point.

[The Vorlon]

He has a chance just like the Indianapolis Colts still have a chance of winning the Super Bowl this year.

Hey Peyton could come back, and they could go 9 in a row, and 9-7 could get them into the playoffs

And the economy could turn around, and Obamacare might actually save money, and ........

[The Vorlon]

A mild Obama bump in the polls...

Doing an apples to apples comparison and taking the current RCP average versus the same poll from (about) a month ago.....

Rasmussen Reports 11/5 - 11/7 1500 LV 45 54 -9 (Unchanged at -9 versus October 1st)

Gallup 11/4 - 11/6 1500 A 43 50 -7 (Unchanged at -7 from October 1st)

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl  44 51 -7 (unchanged at-7 net as Oct 10th poll)

ABC News/Wash Post 10/31 - 11/3 1004 A 44 53 -9 (Gain of 3 % net from October 2nd poll)

Reuters/Ipsos 10/31 - 11/3 1106 A 49 50 -1 (gain of 2% from October 10th poll)

Quinnipiac 10/25 - 10/31 2294 RV 47 49 -2 (Gain of 12% from October 3rd poll)

FOX News 10/23 - 10/25 904 RV 43 50 -7 (Gain of 1% from September 27th poll)

How does the Sesame Street song go... "One of these things, is not like the others....."

[The Vorlon]

Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R):

50% Approve
47% Disapprove

Results are based on 1000 weighted cases, Margin of Error = ±3.10 percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/436/original/RR_Nov_2011_Year_Out_Toplines.pdf

An interesting poll.

They ask the "approval question" quite deep into the survey after having presented the GOP and Dem positions on a variety of issues.

Because of this, this poll is "kinda" a very mild version of a "push poll" - I am not saying this in a negative way BTW, in campaigns it is standard procedure to present a variety of issues and see if the presentation of these issues impacts the "horse race question" as a way of testing campaign themes.

Given that it has been quite a while since Obama has a net positive approval rating in any poll, this poll suggests, at least as presented in this survey, that Obama can make up a bit of ground "on the issues" and that the policy issues , at least as framed in this poll,  are more popular than he is personally.

[The Vorlon]

The President is doing fine on everything but the economy.
    

And last night Rick Perry did just fine, other than that one question.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loBe0WXtts8

[The Vorlon]

In looking the the day to day numbers, it's easy to think you see trends that are not really there.

If you do an apples to apples comparison (ie track the changes within the same poll) there seems to be a whole lot less noise...


Essentially, versus a month ago, Obama's average disapproval is virtually unchanged, and his approval is up, on average, about 1%.

These changes are so small that "statistical noise" is my first guess. followed by "perhaps a very modest rise" in second place.....

[The Vorlon]

...or a bad sample.

The day Obama hit +1 in Rasmussen the sample jumped up a net 5% in one day, and three days later it drops 6% as that sample rolls off....

The "strong approve" dropping 5% looks like a bad sample on the low side...

Rasmussen's use of "likely voters" about a year out adds artificial volatility to things because "likely voters" a year out bounce around far more that they do close into an election....

There is no perfect methodology, they all have warts, this is just the set of warts Rasmussen has chosen...

[The Vorlon]

Nobody can predict who the 'likely voters' are.  

Perhaps Muon2 can enlighten you on how statistics work. "Voters" can't be predicted, but "likely voters" can. Sure, some voters that are not "likely voters" will in fact vote in the next election, and voters whom are "likely" to vote may not, but, the underlying statistical models underpinning the filter can be mathematically and empirically sound.

There is no doubt that a "likely voter" screen is a better way to poll when you get quite close to an actual election, but one year out it's a bit vague as to how useful that screening is.

This far out, I actually like what Marist/McClatchy and Fox (Opinion Dynamics) do which is run a poll of registered voters, and then NOT slam the undecided hard for a reply.

By limiting the pool to RVs you eliminate the folks who are really unlikley to vote, and by not slamming the undecided, you get the opinion of those who are at least marginally engaged in the process enough to have an a actual opinion.

McClatchy says 43/50 => -7, which is pretty much identical to Fox's 42/48 => -6

The Gold Standard poll (HART/McINTURFF for NBC/WSJ) says 44/51 => -7 which I think is pretty close to reality.

Obama is (IMHO) is in that grey area of polling where is is clearly vulnerable, but also not dead in the water. - Obama's polling looks a lot like Bush II in the summer of 2004 (Obama is maybe a few points weaker) - weak, with a very passionate and intense core of opposition, but also a base that is "hanging in there" and likely facing a challenger in the General election that is less than optimal....

Assuming the Obama folks can bury any ethics scandals, and assuming the GOP gets a flawed candidate, Obama can still will.  It's going to be very close.