The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ouch, even Massachusetts doesn't like HCR.

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[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Pennsylvania (Susquehanna)

42% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide poll was conducted April 7-12 with 700 likely general election voters for Premium Access Members and general distribution purposes. The margin of error for a sample size of 700 is +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level, but 6.1% for the sub sample of 254 Republicans and 4.9% for the sub sample of 400 Democrats (which includes an oversample).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/29914043/April-2010-Susquehanna-Research-Poll

I can't use it: pollster entirely for Republican and "conservative" interests.

They do business with Republican candidates and not Democrats, but they also do work with non-partisan clients: the American Lung Association, ABC27 News, and the Pittsburgh Tribune Review Newspaper to name three.

Not saying you should use it, but it's not an exclusively Republican pollster.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Notably, though, when you compare North Dakota to the recent polls in Georgia and Florida, the strength of that approval is much weaker. (That is, many more of North Dakota's approvers only "somewhat" approve.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Notably, though, when you compare North Dakota to the recent polls in Georgia and Florida, the strength of that approval is much weaker. (That is, many more of North Dakota's approvers only "somewhat" approve.)

But all that really matters is the strongly disapprove...the 51% who strongly disapprove in GA will not vote for him. He at least is in the mid-40's in the Dakotas, but then again the Dakotas aren't the type of states that would get too riled up about a politician.

41% approval (Georgia) and 44% approval (North Dakota) implies a huge difference. Add about 6%  to the approval rating for an incumbent at the start of a campaign and you get a fair idea of how he will do in the general election in a state. The incumbent as a Governor, Senator, or (in a one-Representative state) Representative has plenty of advantages by being able to use the perquisites of office, most significantly the ability to set the agenda that a challenger doesn't have. Some who disapprove will disapprove of the challenger, too, and either won't vote or will vote for a third-party candidate. Adding 6% suggests a likely vote share.

The 41% approval in Georgia probably translates to about 47% of a vote share... which isn't close enough to get the President to make lots of appearances there unless the state is the difference between winning and losing the nationwide election. That is close to how Obama did in Georgia in 2008... and he abandoned the state as an electoral target in favor of others.

Sure, Obama could win Georgia in 2012... if certain things go right. Successful wind-downs of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq might do the trick if such convinces active military people... but that is asking for things that have yet to happen, are not sure to happen, and have no obvious precedent. He could also lose Wisconsin if unemployment skyrockets.

North Dakota showed two polls in two months in which the President has an approval rating of 44%, which translates into about a 50% share of the vote. That is where Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina were in 2008. Such translates into a phrase that causes many people to reach for antacids:

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

The bad news for the GOP: North Dakota hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964 and hasn't been close to going for the Democratic nominee except in an electoral blowout for a very long time.

The good news for the GOP: North Dakota is unlikely to be the difference in the 2012 election.

Further bad news for the GOP: take a good look at South Dakota.

First of all, LOL.

Secondly, ROFL.

To delve into the meat of your arguement, WTF.

If we add 6% to Bill Clinton's approval ratings in 1996, we find he enjoyed a massive landslide victory with a near unprecedented 59-64% of the vote.

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Similarly, we see George W. Bush scoring a rousing 53-59% victory in 2004:

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Reagan knocked it out of the park by winning nearly two out of every three voters nationwide...

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I'd go on, but your overly simplistic analysis based on your fantasyland wants and desires is lacking to say the least. There is no historical basis for your "plus six," and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that North Dakota will be even remotely competitive with nearly 50% of voters disapproving of him, most of them strongly so.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

blah blah blah

I hestitate to reproduce what you had actually written above, as I do not want anyone accidentally mistaking that big mass of "LOL?" as my own.

If you want me to seriously rebut it, here's what I've got for you:

The article you reproduced from Silver talks about head-to-head matchups, and the improvement incumbents get later on in the campaign. It doesn't talk about "approval" polls at all, which is what you're trying to use to divine future election results. You are attempting to make some kind of awkward apples-to-oranges comparison that has no historical or statistical basis in reality.

If you need hard data/proof, again, please reference the election results of the last 100 years or so, the most recent of which I cut and paste for you above.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The 6% (Silver says 7%) is no hard and fast rule. It's an average, and it does not apply to every statewide election.  Some candidates can make fools of themselves (former Senator George "Macaca" Allen, whose staffers beat up a heckler) or find themselves entangled in disgusting scandals that pull them down. One can't predict campaign meltdowns or the eruption of scandals in still-competitive races. Some incumbents fare better than 7%; go figure.

Oops! You're still confusing head-to-head matchups with approval ratings!

The current 41% approval rating in Georgia for President Obama likely translates into about a 47% share at most of the vote in Georgia, which is not enough to win. That is a 6% margin just slightly larger than the reality of 2008 in Georgia. Obama abandoned efforts to win Georgia when some states seemed to slip into the danger zone.

Oops! You're still confusing head-to-head matchups with approval ratings!

Will 2012 be different?

You better hope it is, because actual history shows "plus six" to be incorrect. But why should history stop us when we can just torture Nate Silver's logic into something that "feels" believable to those who want to believe it?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

FYI: You've been punk'd.

Someday, I anticipate Pbrower will step out, pull off his mask, and we'll find out he was really just Al or Sam Spade or someone all along. Sure, we'll be pissed at first and feel a little betrayed or whatever, but in the end, we'll all just be relieved that Pbrower was nothing more than a figment of someone's imagination.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am working with what is available. The re is no head-to-head matchup yet. Obama might lose to some idealized Generic Republican as adept at exuding optimism and transcending regional differences as Ronald Reagan.  You tell  me -- does that candidate exist? We have no state named Shangri-La.

Here is how I'm working with what's available.

We'll see how the Republican field shakes out, and see if anyone especially dynamic breaks from the pack. Right now, I think the front runner is Mitt Romney, and he's a John Kerry at worst. Capable, clearly intelligent, with a presidential "feel," all while still lacking the definable charismatic quality that made Reagan or Obama.

So, to use your "ask myself a question and then answer it immediately" mechanic that is littered through your writing: Does this mean that Romney (or someone like him) is guaranteed the fate of Kerry? No. Kerry did well for someone who failed to win the presidency. He trailed Bush by ~2.4% in the final tally. He can win by performing better than Kerry or by Obama performing worse than Bush.

The latter is the scenario that's shaking out right now. Obama is far more polarizing than he was in 2008. It was an inevitable effect—it's easier to believe a politician is everything you want him to be prior to him taking office. He still inspires a large swath of the populace, but a large part of the Democratic base is much more "realistic" about him now. "The gays," for instance, will never be as excited about Obama as they were in 2008 now that he has a pretty lukewarm record on those issues.

You can see that, in part, by looking at Obama's approval ratings. They're not abysmal, but they're definitely upside down. That doesn't mean things are over for him, but it does mean that he's in worse shape now than Bush was at this point. Worse, in fact, than most points in the Bush first-term presidency. (Though Bush was indeed upside down for a very brief period during the 2004 campaign.)

You can keep your fingers crossed all you want, but your talk of an Obama landslide accompanied by a map where South Dakota somehow leans toward him is patently ridiculous. It's a scenario, but one entirely devoid of supporting data at this point. Don't pretend otherwise.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Indiana (SurveyUSA)

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107

UGLY! How did he actually win that state again? Haha.

voodoun magicks

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's hard for me to take anything Sam says seriously with that dog picture in his signature.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Only rank amateurs would discuss the 2012 election using current "approval" data without employing the "add six (or sometimes four in the case of Ohio)" rule. When you do, you'll see that we're in the midst of an unstoppable Obama landslide barring the appearance of the "next Reagan."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Governor John Corzine (D-NJ) gained from abysmal starts and still lost badly.

If by abysmal start, you mean that Corzine ahead of Christie in the matchups in 2008 and steadily declined until he was consistently behind Christie the summer or fall of 2009, where he rebounded slightly but never back to the point where he started, then yeah. As for Santorum, he was always behind Casey by the same ten or so points pretty consistently throughout the campaign. That, of course, exploded to an 18 point loss on Election Day.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

where are ppl getting the add 10 points to the approval? Just for the sake of doing it?

pbrower introduced us to the add 6 rule, where you add six to the approvals to get what percentage the incumbent will get in an election. I decided I would be a smart ass and add 10. I just made that up.

If you do not add at least 15 yuo aer a rethuglican HACK

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

FDU has Christie's approval at 44/42, so who knows what SUSA is smoking.

And you are trusting a uni poll over SUSA why exactly?

Because they have a long history of polling in New Jersey.

Fact: FDU sucks.

Just a note, Survey USA frequently reports wildly different approval numbers from other pollsters. That's not to say SUSA is more or less accurate. Instead, it's to say that you probably shouldn't compare SUSA numbers against the numbers you get from other polls for the purposes of conducting trendlines.

I think it's a function of SUSA's binary choice: You can either approve of the pol or disapprove. Those are your options. Most other pollsters, like Ras, give you the option to modify your disapproval with words like "somewhat."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

But Gallup has moved down, so it could just be some movement.

Logic suggests there would be some downward pressure on his numbers from growing concerns and unhappiness with the way the BP oil spill is being handled by the government and Obama's reaction to it. Then again, like you suggested about sending troops... *shrug*

That being said, all the movement is at the margins, and unless we see declines across the board, it's impossible to know if there's even a decline at all. Such is polling.  :/

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This thread is awful.

But an irresistable kind of awful you just can't stay away from.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Arkansas Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

24% Strongly approve
14% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
49% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure

As Tennessee goes, Arkansas usually goes, too.  Not this time!

The polls are virtually identical where it counts:

In Tennessee, 25% strongly approve. Compare that with 24% here.
In Tennessee, 47% strongly disapprove. Compare that with 49% here.

Those are the most important numbers. Surely, you must agree that people who strongly disapprove of the president are almost guaranteed to vote against him, and that people who strongly approve are almost guaranteed to vote for him. It's the "somewhats" who are fluid enough to tip the balance.

Even if you go down to the somewhat approve/disapprove numbers, you're 14 vs. 17 and 12 vs. 10. A little better for the President, but Tennessee was a little better for the President in 2008. He lost TN by 15%; Arkansas by 20%.

If anything, the poll is shockingly... unshocking!

TEXAS

Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted June 16, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

28% Strongly approve

12% Somewhat approve

  9% Somewhat disapprove

51% Strongly disapprove

  0% Not sure

(note that a small change in the approval rating makes a big difference at that level. I have suggested that Obama would likely to do better in Texas in 2012 -- if not win it - than in 2012... but this poll says that the improvement would not be enough to swing the giant state).

Obama is strongly disapproved of by more than half of the state. I mean, Jesus, that's worse than how he's viewed in Arkansas!

Obama's numbers in Texas suggest a loss there of epic proportions. It amuses me to no end that you reminded everybody that you think (or perhaps thought) that Obama can win it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

These numbers cant possibly be right.  No way Obama is as popular as he is nationwide in California.

SUSA didn't do a national poll AFAIK. Perhaps according to them Obama is the upper 30's nationwide.

SurveyUSA shows lower approval numbers in general, and not just for the President. Recall SUSA's poll of Chris Christie that showed him with gravely poor approvals just weeks before -- and after -- other pollsters showed him net positive.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Spurious poll in Massachusetts recognized as such.

Someone got a word-a-day calendar for Christmas!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, nc.

Disapprove 54% , –1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, –1.


*Polling was not done over the holiday weekend.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And within the "new normal."  No great increase or decrease

I didn't want to step on your toes, but when 10AM EDT rolls around without my daily polling fix, I start to get antsy!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

IL (Rasmussen)

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Don't worry, Obama.  You'll always have Hawai'i.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The model (and in this I owe Nate Silver at 538) suggests that an incumbent who has an early approval rating of 44% in a statewide race  has roughly a 50% chance of winning the election.

I hate having to correct him every time he says this (it's tedious), but Nate Silver says nothing of the sort.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Could we say the movement over the past few days is a trend, or just sample variation?

Far too small a move, and far too soon to say.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Indiana -- marginally contestable, a bad sign for the GOP.

Pay no attention to the map covered in a sharply disapproving mustard yellow. It is merely there to add delicious flavor to Obama's hot dog of a victory romp.