The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

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So a 2% approval in Minnesota makes it safe and a 15% disapproval in Texas makes it a tossup.  Yes.  Thank you for your wisdom.

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I wanna see Obama's approval drop more just to see how pbrower can still twist it into an Obama advantage.

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Uh...shouldn't Tennessee be orange?  And do you really believe the Republicans will win in by less that 5% based on a poll with -15% approval and almost 50% strongly disapproving?  REALLY?

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Uh...shouldn't Tennessee be orange?  And do you really believe the Republicans will win in by less that 5% based on a poll with -15% approval and almost 50% strongly disapproving?  REALLY?

Strong disapproval in itself is no indicator of how the President will perform in a reelection campaign.  The President is not in campaign mode - he is doing as he should and responding to the Gulf crisis.  Once he brings his campaign out of mothballs, he will be nigh-unstoppable.  Should someone like Mitt Romney be the nominee, Tennessee might well be in play.  White voters may opt to vote for the devil that they know - even if he is black - rather than a venture capitalist with religious beliefs that clash with the Southern Baptist thugocracy.

The President has many ways in which to win and few ways to lose.  In 2012, he will either run on his record and lose, or run away from his record and win.

So many ifs, huh?  And what if Huckabee is the nominee, won't Tennessee then be wildly out of play?  The only ifs you take into account are if Obama is at his very peak and if the Republicans nominate the worst candidate for each state.

You were right about one thing, approval ratings have nothing to do with voting.  So stop comparing the two.

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Approval ratings this far out have little bearing on an election that is almost thirty months away.  One of the most consistent findings, however, is that the President tends to outperform his approval ratings, sometimes by as much as ten points - the addition of five is a conservative estimate.  Right now, Rasmussen - a polling firm whose credibility is seriously in question - has the President's approval at 43%.  By adding five, we get a nearly even approval of 49%.  Against a generic Republican candidate, President Obama would face a tough reelection.  But none of his potential opponents are generic.  They are, rather, disciples of the reactionary movement that wants to puts plutocrats and yes, oil tycoons back into power, who will fight tooth and nail against any financial reform.  So long as the specter of George W. Bush haunts the Republican Party, they have no hope of any electoral success for many years - perhaps decades, should demographic trends increasingly favor the Democratic Party and should President Obama produce any legislative success.  So far, I see an above average President with average approval ratings, weighed down by an economy that was crushed under the weight of George W. Bush and his minions.  It will take a long time to get back to where we used to be.  When our economy is on even footing again, President Obama's approval ratings are sure to spike.  When that happens, you can stick a fork in any Republican candidates - generic or no.

Based on what?  The last time Obama ran for reelection?  Bush was at the mid-50s at reelection, he didn't win in the mid-60s.  But you know, Republicans don't see boosts only Democrats do.  Add 5% for Democrats being polled, subtract 5% for Republicans, right?

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Heh, you fell for Van der Blub. Not that his troll views are much different than pbrower's real views...

LOL I literally had NO idea the entire time.  I should have though, pbrower never actually responds.

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KY update. Rand Paul has slipped badly in his Senate race.

By...Conway gaining 1 point?  The May result was the obvious outlier, he's been holding pretty steady the whole time so far.

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KY update. Rand Paul has slipped badly in his Senate race.

By...Conway gaining 1 point?  The May result was the obvious outlier, he's been holding pretty steady the whole time so far.

It didn't seem like an outlier at the time.

Yes, it did.  Here are his Rasmussen leads so far:
8%
8%
15%
14%
9%
25%
8%
7%

An average of a 9% lead outside that one random burst.  Definitely a very clear outlier even at the time.

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Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)

Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

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Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Haha...OK thanks.

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We may yet be headed for the Christian and Corporate State that Dubya took us toward but only in baby steps.

We're not there now?

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Why does Wisconsin seem to like Obama more than its neighbors, both in the primary and general elections, and now in the approval polls?

Uh...the only state bordering Wisconsin where Obama is doing worse is Michigan.

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Georgia (Mason-Dixon):

37% Approve
52% Disapprove

http://www.onlineathens.com/stories/071810/new_677548058.shtml

tossup

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Yeah, because most states are polling about how they voted.  How did I know you'd turn this into a solid poll?

Now, just level with me here; Is it exhausting to have to try SO hard to twist everything into a Democratic positive?  Can you really not just look at things the way they are?  OR are you actually delusional enough to believe that trash?  I mean come on, just give it up already!

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Don't worry too much about it, Mr. Phips, it's just a way the hack extraordinaire justifies Obama's mediocre approval ratings.  There's nothing real behind it other than a default defense of everything Obama or Democratic.

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Don't worry too much about it, Mr. Phips, it's just a way the hack extraordinaire justifies Obama's mediocre approval ratings.  There's nothing real behind it other than a default defense of everything Obama or Democratic.

So says someone whose avatar is a convicted criminal.

Hahahaha and?

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Naaaah, maaane I ain't gone do nuthin but...

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Haha Giants fan?

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Haha Giants fan?

Nope.

Oh

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You missed my post about NJ again. Do I need to repost it?

Sure, go for it.

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You missed my post about NJ again. Do I need to repost it?

Sure, go for it.

I meant pbrower. He doesn't have NJ listed, and it had a post election poll.

Oh.  I still don't get you

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Watch out, Tender, you'll catch the dumb.