The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Does anyone else think that a Dennis Kucinich run is possible?

yes I think him and a blue dog ala Ben Nelson will challenge Obama

If the Democratic Party chooses to cannibalize itself like it did in 1968 and 1980, it would lose the presidency in 2012

Besides isn't a bit early to be writing the president off seven months into his presidency?

On economic and quality of life issues, I've every confidence. He's a Democrat

I think Democrats need to lose the Presidency if they fail on healthcare. 

It's kind of a double edged sword. I think they are hurt more if they pass it than if they back off in the minds of the public. It will look worse if they go it alone and force it through.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I am shocked at the speed of Obama's decline in recent weeks. There has been no fluctuation at all. He's gone straight off the cliff. When is he going to bottom out? I thought maybe he'd get a small bounce when Kennedy died, but that hasn't happened.

I don't think the public is giving Bush a pass so much as they disapprove of Obama's actions. He's running up the debt at a pace that makes Bush look like a sissy. On top of that, he's wanting to add another trillion to it with the healthcare reform, even after it looks like our recovery may not be a strong as we thought, which will lead to a larger debt down the road. That's certainly why I disapprove of him now. I understand he came in under difficult circumstances, but the stimulus, which hasn't done a thing, and now healthcare reform have turned me completely off, not to mention the Big Brother policies (email the WH if your neighbor is acting fishy, I thought we were done with that when Bush left office?).

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's getting old seeing these inflated polls from the CBS/NBC types.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2009/republican_voters_say_gop_reps_in_congress_still_out_of_touch

Is anyone more horrified by this? The current makeup of Republicans are too LIBERAL? What on earth have they done that was liberal?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2009/republican_voters_say_gop_reps_in_congress_still_out_of_touch

Is anyone more horrified by this? The current makeup of Republicans are too LIBERAL? What on earth have they done that was liberal?

Duke, I told you in February/March what was going on within the Republican party (or where it's headed for the time being).  I'll repeat it if I have to, but it was as obvious then as now.

No need to repeat your little caveat. I remember what you said. No matter what happens, the Republican Party is still the lesser of the two evils when it comes to the things I care about.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

How old is NE-02? I know Obama's more popular there, but he only got 49% of the vote on election day. I doubt he still has a 50% approval there.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Kos/R2K Weekly poll

Name            Favourable    Unfavourable   Net Gain
PRESIDENT OBAMA   56 (52)   39 (43)   +8
         
PELOSI:   33 (32)   59 (59)   +1
REID:   30 (31)   59 (58)   -2
McCONNELL:   18 (19)   64 (63)   -2
BOEHNER:   14 (15)   62 (63)   0
         
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:   38 (39)   57 (56)   -2
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:   17 (18)   70 (69)   -2
         
DEMOCRATIC PARTY:   40 (39)   51 (52)   +2
REPUBLICAN PARTY:   22 (23)   68 (69)   0

What does 57-39 look like?  It depends, surprisingly, on how the undistributed 4% go. Should that undecided vote split about 3-1 Republican, it's something like this:

An Eisenhower '56 victory for Obama should Texas flip.

With a southern racist of the Strom Thurmond/George Wallace heritage splitting the conservative vote, it looks something like this:

LBJ '64 again.

I do not claim that either will happen.

Oh my God.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wonder if pbrower2a will color New Hampshire green or yellow.

It will remain green. He still refuses to acknowledge that NE-02 is probably an outdated poll, believing that a district that was 49-49 on election day 2008 would still give Obama over 50% approvals.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I can't believe anyone would try to justify that poll. No way does he have a 68% favorable in Maine unless they just like him personally. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama got 58% in ME. It is hardly one of the "most liberal" states in the country(also evidenced by their opposition to same-sex marriage in the same poll). To think he is 10 points above what he got in 08 is just absurd.

Now you are mixing up an election with favorables ...

Maybe Mainers just like the person Barack Obama, what they think about his job is a completely different story ...

My point... This isn't approvals, rather favorability, but it's not a shock that it only took p2bower an hour to bump Maine up to 70% on his map, yet he still refuses to add New Jersey or make NE-02 and the like orange.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

p2bower is now spinning himself in circles. None of what he is doing is making a lick of sense.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well, that NJ poll was added very quickly, despite including only 2009 likely voters.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well, that NJ poll was added very quickly, despite including only 2009 likely voters.

Probably low, but the direction makes sense.

No way is New Jersey more R than America as a whole!

Isn't this map supposed to be just a compilation of polls coming out on Obama's job approvals? It seems like you're just picking which polls you agree with and adding them. NJ is not more R than America, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't add it. Likewise, Maine is not D+20 compared to America, yet you added the ridiculous poll showing Obama at 70% there. I just want consistency, not a map that you want to see.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The last Iowa poll that gave Obama positive approvals was more accurate, so we should keep that one.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

48% rounds to 50% anyway, as fezzy said, so no big deal.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Ohio(Rasmussen)

Approve 48%
Disapprove 50%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_2010_ohio_senate_race_september_25_2009

Rounds up to 50% approval nicely. We can keep OH green on the map.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

New Jersey is out of reach except in a landslide?  It's only 8% more Democratic than the country.  That's barely more than Obama won by.  Was 2012 a landslide?  Conversely Texas is 19% more Republican than the country, yet is almost certain to be competitive?  What logic suggests this?  And for the record, Michigan is about half as far from the national average as Texas, so stop trying to compare the two.

I think I can take this one for pbower2.

The age wave, you see, is causing a dramatic shift in the direction of the Democratic Party. The states Obama won in 2008 are now dubbed "the blue firewall," meaning its almost certain that any Democratic nominee will begin with 365 electoral votes before any primary votes have been cast. New Jersey is in that firewall and is basically unwinnible for any far-rightist (Republican) for the foreseeable future except if the Republicans are able to steal the next election, which may happen considering they forgot to rig the election machines in 2006 and 2008.

As for your inane Texas argument; what don't you understand? The youth in Texas are overwhelmingly Democratic and Hispanics are switching parties as we speak. It way have been 19% more GOP in 2008, but that is only because the age wave has not taken full effect. I expect it will be a swing state/lean D come 2012 after Obama saves us from certain collapse. If the age wave is as powerful as I am conceding, we can expect a map like this come 2012. The only states that are safe from this tsunami of people who are looking for change are the ones full of Christian bigots, right wing extremists, and idiotic supply siders. Also expect a gigantic swing of southern white voters to Obama in 2012 after his stimulus package is in full effect, netting Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia. They will realize Obama's policies benefit them much more than the Republican tax cuts for the rich and corporate welfare. America has woken up and rejected the theocracy/fascist regime we were forced to live in during the Bush years!

As for my accurate map:

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

John McCain was southern? He was born in Panama, went to boarding school in Alexandria, and then settled in Arizona. How is he southern?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama's gotten a pretty clear bump for some reason: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Probably because healthcare looks like it might pass now, as opposed to August? Or Dems and Independents tuning back in?

Lief, Lief, Lief! Why would he get a positive bump in the polls if most polls show Americans disapproving of healthcare reform?

Anyway, I can't explain why he went from 50% to 56% in four days. Of course, I can't explain why Obama won the Nobel Prize either. You learn with him that most things that occur occur because of external forces, not something the President actually does. I expect Gallup thought it was appropriate to raise his approvals because he intends to do a better job in the future.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Ohio was more Republican than the national average in 2008, so it may be safe to say that it leans more culturally towards the Republican Party today than it does the Democratic Party.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

That's actually pretty high for South Carolina, assuming Obama is at 46-49% nationally. I'm not sure if it's a junk poll or not.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Perhaps, but Obama has always had low approval ratings, which is confusing because of how large the margin in which he won it.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

So much for Obama being competitive in Texas, at least right now, eh?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Looking at these numbers, I think the add 10 rule is more appropriate than anything else (add 10 to the approval rating). This puts Texas and Arizona in play. Obama is still safe for reelection against anyone the Republicans put up.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

where are ppl getting the add 10 points to the approval? Just for the sake of doing it?

pbrower introduced us to the add 6 rule, where you add six to the approvals to get what percentage the incumbent will get in an election. I decided I would be a smart ass and add 10. I just made that up.