The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

It's interesting to note that the states would, if the polling is correct, vote for "someone else." Now, why is it that the national trend shows him with approval generally in the high 40s/low 50s, then?

In general, an incumbent President has about a 50-50 chance of winning re-election if his approval rating is at 44%. (Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com)  Above 44% the likelihood of victory skyrockets to near 100% at 47% approval. Unless something funny is going on (like a favorite son as an opponent in the state) such is likely a good approximation for winning the state. So in a two-way race with a couple of minor parties running candidates who sop up the disaffected vote and allow one of the two main candidates to win with about 49% of the vote, this map of the latest  approval ratings for likely voters (note: Connecticut updated)

If you are looking at this, at this point in time, the statement is false.  Carter had 55%, GHWB, about a month after the capture of Noriega, had an 80%.

No elected president was lower than a 47% approval numbers on Gallup, at this point in time.  Reagan had 49% and was re-elected.  Clinton was as 54% (and was on an upswing) but only had 49% of the vote in the next presidential election.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

Either Silver has it wrong, grandly, or you are misquoting him.

[J. J.]

It's interesting to note that the states would, if the polling is correct, vote for "someone else." Now, why is it that the national trend shows him with approval generally in the high 40s/low 50s, then?

In general, an incumbent President has about a 50-50 chance of winning re-election if his approval rating is at 44%. (Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com)  Above 44% the likelihood of victory skyrockets to near 100% at 47% approval. Unless something funny is going on (like a favorite son as an opponent in the state) such is likely a good approximation for winning the state. So in a two-way race with a couple of minor parties running candidates who sop up the disaffected vote and allow one of the two main candidates to win with about 49% of the vote, this map of the latest  approval ratings for likely voters (note: Connecticut updated)

If you are looking at this, at this point in time, the statement is false.  Carter had 55%, GHWB, about a month after the capture of Noriega, had an 80%.

No elected president was lower than a 47% approval numbers on Gallup, at this point in time.  Reagan had 49% and was re-elected.  Clinton was as 54% (and was on an upswing) but only had 49% of the vote in the next presidential election.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

Either Silver has it wrong, grandly, or you are misquoting him.

That is... at a certain time close to the election. We are far from the 2012 Presidential election. I am not willing to extrapolate further deterioration of his approval ratings because to extrapolate such is statistical recklessness.

I'm suggesting that the use of statistic, 47%, is meaningless, since all elected presidents were above 47% at this point in time in their first term, including those that were not reelected.  In other words, either Nate Silver is very wrong or you are misquoting him.


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I fail to see much difference between the 49% for Reagan and the 47% for Obama. The difference is probably smaller than the number of racists who would never recognize the legitimate achievements of any black person.
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Or knee jerk liberals that never would have supported Reagan.

I do, however, see one major difference, Obama's negatives are higher, and really have been since 2-5 months into his term.  It didn't start out that way.

I think that it started several months into his term may dispute the "it's all racial" theory.  It has also grown.

[J. J.]

I fail to see much difference between the 49% for Reagan and the 47% for Obama. The difference is probably smaller than the number of racists who would never recognize the legitimate achievements of any black person.

I think you do fail to see that basically several one term presidents had higher numbers than 47%, at this point, and were still one term presidents.  Either Nate Silver is waaaaaay off, or you are misquoting his statistics.

You also fail to see that the high negative numbers have grown, in some cases, even when his positives stayed the same or increased.  To do this, the number of racists would had to have increased.

Here is what happened on Gallup, approve and disapprove humbers:

2/09:

A 62% D 29%

3/09

A 64% D30%

10/09

A 49% D 44%
12/09

A 49% D 46%

It isn't much, but it is there.  It seems to be trending in this direction.

I think there was one poll where this didn't happen.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen gives Obama 46% A, 53% D.

[J. J.]

America is starting to realize why we elected Republicans- they didn't screw things up.

Ahem...

I think that would be more impressive if the Obama numbers didn't go off the chart.

[J. J.]

The 'bots now give Obama 44% approval and 55% disapproval. Gallup has it 49%/44%.


BTW, pbrower2a, while Bush had the highest disapproval on record (in Gallup), his approval rating were higher than Truman's, both at the low points and when each left office.  Obama's disapproval numbers the highest on record (in Gallup) of any elected president at this point.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:  44% Approve, 56% Disapprove

Gallup:  50% Approve, 43% Disapprove

The 'bots give Obama the highest disapproval numbers since December.  The December numbers improved after three days, so that looks like in just might have been a bad sample.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:  46% A 54% D

Gallup: 49% A 44% D

[J. J.]

Rasmussen's daily Obama numbers:

Approve:  47%
   

Disapprove: 53%

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Numbers:

Approve

48%
   
Disapprove

51%

It looks like Obama might have improved fractionally in January.  However, since November, his numbers have been exceptionally stable. 

[J. J.]

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.

On Rasmussen's national poll, Obama's numbers have been reasonably stable.  Even taking into  account the SOTU bounce, his numbers have been within a 7 point range.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen's Obama numbers:

Approve:

47%
   
Disapprove:

52%

Basically, since August 2, 2009, Obama's numbers have been 47% to 52.5%, +/- 3.5 points, on Rasmussen.

Excepting the SOTU bounce, and a slump right before Christmas, his numbers have been within a 47% to 53% within a +/- 3.0 point range since November 17, 2008, on Rasmussen.

I'd call that very stable, and say that they are very close to today's numbers.

[J. J.]

Zogby Poll:

Approve - 31%
Disapprove - 64%

Obama to announce resignation on 22/06/10.

That is great, outstanding.  Obama is finished.  Oh, wait ......

It's Zogby!

[J. J.]

On Rasmussen's monthly numbers, Obama bottomed in December and improved slightly in January.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_month_by_month

[J. J.]

He's been doing better on gallup as well. Up to 53% now after being consistently below 50 for a while.

Gallup has some problems, including some fairly wide swings.  Rasmussen is has been uber stable.

[J. J.]

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

Up three points in two days.

It might be a bad sample size, but Obama is definitely off his lows of 12/09.

[J. J.]

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

Up three points in two days.

It might be a bad sample size, but Obama is definitely off his lows of 12/09.

Actually, still within the margin of error (4%), but barely so. But 50-50 approval translates into about 53% at election time, which is a decisive (Obama 2008) win.

I'm not sure about the daily, but the monthly averages have an MOE of 1%.  December was definitely below November/October.

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 50 or above on Rass? What's this bounce in aid of? The taliban leader who was found?

Late September, but he hit 50% in mid November and after the SOTU.

[J. J.]

The Rasmussen tracking has an MOE of 3%, but Obama has been out of that at times.

[J. J.]

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 50 or above on Rass? What's this bounce in aid of? The taliban leader who was found?

It could be. Note that the captive is the Taliban's top military leader. Such likely throws the Taliban into disarray and makes its defeat more likely.

Good news gets good polling results even if the President has little to do with the cause of the good news. Does he seem to be the sort to try to micro-manage the generals?  Of course we have yet to know the whole story.  

If we lose a single airliner, look for Obama's approval to drop 10 points overnight as he loses the women's vote.  If something worse happens, Obama will all but officially become a lame duck and will have a challenger to the 2012 Dem nomination.

I still don't get that arguement. You know what happened to Bush's approvals after 9/11, right?

BTW, PPP's monthly head-to-head's are due tomorrow.

Nobody in the public was really expecting a terrorist attack (though we should have been).  We are now and Biden's recent comments won't help, if there is one.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen O numbers: 

48% Approve
   

51% Disapprove

No real change.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%

Disapprove 53%

Note nowever that Obama's "strongly approve" number is 23%, tied with the lowest ever.

Either 50% approval number or this one (or both) is likely to be a bad sample.  It is worth watching.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%

Disapprove 54%

Obama's "strongly approve" number is 22%, the lowest ever.

Again, it might be a bad sample, but it deserves watching.

[J. J.]

Given that the "Strongly approve" figures dropped sharply in the past days, it might be that liberal Democrats are abandoning him because he wants to build 2 more nuclear reactors in Georgia.

I'm not too sure that there wasn't a bad sample, pro-Obama, that pushed up the numbers on 2/17, 2/18, and 2/19 (27%).  The week before his "Strongly Approve" numbers were all at 24%, 25%, then there was a three day jump.  Then there was this drop.  It might be erosion, or another bad sample.

[J. J.]

No change in the Rasmussen numbers today.  If it was a bad sample, it should drop out in tomorrow's numbers.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%

Disapprove 54%

Obama's "strongly approve" number is 23%, which was an +1 uptick; his strongly disapprove numbers went up to 42%, also +1.

This was not a bad sample.