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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030731 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2575 on: September 23, 2009, 12:32:07 am »

New Jersey (Rasmussen)Sad

53% Approve
47% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Jersey was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 21, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #2576 on: September 23, 2009, 07:25:56 am »

Missouri(Rasmussen)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 56%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/toplines/toplines_2010_missouri_senate_september_21_2009

It'll be very interesting to see if Pbrower includes the NJ poll on his map.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #2577 on: September 23, 2009, 09:11:11 am »

Wisconsin should be colored red; last month's polls for Iowa and Wisconsin both showed marginal advantages for "Generic Republican"; this month a poll showed Iowa a positive approval for Obama and Minnesota showing a decisive one (55%). Wisconsin is typically between Iowa and Minnesota in its polls, so it's not as if Wisconsin is likely to vote for the Republican if Minnesota and Iowa vote for Obama.
It's best not really to look at job approval ratings right now. I want to see more polling where Obama is under 50%, but is based on a pollster that has Obama's national approval under 50%. At least we will learn about states that the GOP or Obama might be able to firewall early (swings states that already swung).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2578 on: September 23, 2009, 09:59:15 am »

GA, MD, MO, NJ, NY -- MD for the first time, but no surprise there.



I'm a bit surprised about Missouri. I'd expect it to be much closer than it is. Strategic Vision is an R-leaning poll, but a 56% disapproval rate is outside the MOE.

I have frequently said that the Age Wave alone could push Missouri into an Obama pick-up in 2012. It's not the whole of political reality; it works on the margin.

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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #2579 on: September 23, 2009, 10:05:25 am »

Wouldn't it be easier to just put the number for the month?  I think we all know those a little better.  And this is a political forum after all, so it's not like we're going to think California and Nevada both have 9EVs.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #2580 on: September 23, 2009, 10:22:03 am »

I thought you weren't using NJ samples of likely 2009 voters?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2581 on: September 23, 2009, 10:47:03 am »

Wouldn't it be easier to just put the number for the month?  I think we all know those a little better.  And this is a political forum after all, so it's not like we're going to think California and Nevada both have 9EVs.

The I means that the latest useful poll came from the ninth month of the year (September). When a state was most recently polled matters greatly. One time this year Obama had a positive approval rating in , of all places, Utah.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #2582 on: September 23, 2009, 10:53:55 am »

After a year I think it's safe to drop the poll from the map.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2583 on: September 23, 2009, 11:09:16 am »

I thought you weren't using NJ samples of likely 2009 voters?
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #2584 on: September 23, 2009, 11:13:27 am »

Pbrower, what makes this NJ poll different than the NJ poll that you rejected before?
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RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
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« Reply #2585 on: September 23, 2009, 11:16:52 am »

Pbrower, what makes this NJ poll different than the NJ poll that you rejected before?

It gives Obama a net positive approval rating.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2586 on: September 23, 2009, 11:23:25 am »

Well, that NJ poll was added very quickly, despite including only 2009 likely voters.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2587 on: September 23, 2009, 11:50:28 am »

I'm a bit surprised about Missouri. I'd expect it to be much closer than it is.

It's OK I guess, because MO was about 4% more Republican last year than the nation.

If Rasmussen has Obama at 49% or 50% approval, 44% looks fine, because we also have to notice that MO is trending away from the Democratic Presidential Candidate since 5 or 6 elections now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2588 on: September 23, 2009, 12:09:13 pm »

New RAS stuff from Iowa to be released at 5pm ...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2589 on: September 23, 2009, 01:32:27 pm »

Well, that NJ poll was added very quickly, despite including only 2009 likely voters.

Probably low, but the direction makes sense.

No way is New Jersey more R than America as a whole!
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #2590 on: September 23, 2009, 01:33:53 pm »

Well, that NJ poll was added very quickly, despite including only 2009 likely voters.

Probably low, but the direction makes sense.

No way is New Jersey more R than America as a whole!

It still doesn't make sense why you included this NJ poll and not the previous one.

Why won't you answer the simple question of why?
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2591 on: September 23, 2009, 02:09:19 pm »

Well, that NJ poll was added very quickly, despite including only 2009 likely voters.

Probably low, but the direction makes sense.

No way is New Jersey more R than America as a whole!

Isn't this map supposed to be just a compilation of polls coming out on Obama's job approvals? It seems like you're just picking which polls you agree with and adding them. NJ is not more R than America, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't add it. Likewise, Maine is not D+20 compared to America, yet you added the ridiculous poll showing Obama at 70% there. I just want consistency, not a map that you want to see.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #2592 on: September 23, 2009, 02:50:54 pm »

Well, that NJ poll was added very quickly, despite including only 2009 likely voters.

Probably low, but the direction makes sense.

No way is New Jersey more R than America as a whole!

Isn't this map supposed to be just a compilation of polls coming out on Obama's job approvals? It seems like you're just picking which polls you agree with and adding them. NJ is not more R than America, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't add it. Likewise, Maine is not D+20 compared to America, yet you added the ridiculous poll showing Obama at 70% there. I just want consistency, not a map that you want to see.

You have to remember, you are talking an Obama hack. In his mind any poll that shows his savior unpopular is just the work of the evil right wing terrorists that are trying to destroy America.

Duh!! Roll Eyes
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2593 on: September 23, 2009, 03:39:30 pm »

Well, that NJ poll was added very quickly, despite including only 2009 likely voters.

Probably low, but the direction makes sense.

No way is New Jersey more R than America as a whole!

Isn't this map supposed to be just a compilation of polls coming out on Obama's job approvals? It seems like you're just picking which polls you agree with and adding them. NJ is not more R than America, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't add it. Likewise, Maine is not D+20 compared to America, yet you added the ridiculous poll showing Obama at 70% there. I just want consistency, not a map that you want to see.

You have to remember, you are talking an Obama hack. In his mind any poll that shows his savior unpopular is just the work of the evil right wing terrorists that are trying to destroy America.

Duh!! Roll Eyes

The vast majority of American conservatives seek continual improvement in American life. Most seem to want the best for America, and should President Obama do well, then they do well.

Danger comes from extremists posing this time as conservatives who want Obama to fail so that they can get their pet agenda without qualification. They want him to have one legislative failure after another, and they willingly risk economic failure so long as they can direct America "back" to Jesus or Mammon, whichever they believe in at the time.  In the meantime they will disrupt the political process to make liberals of all kinds look bad, and if we get an economic meltdown that rivals that of 1929-1933, so much the better as a Sign from God that America must return to some old values that have been betrayed.

The early stage of the economic upturn can turn into a mirage. Iran and North Korea are both far more dangerous to the lives of Americans and to genuine friends in Israel and South Korea. Healthcare costs are rising more rapidly than wages and productivity -- and they are crippling our potential to export while giving perverse subsidies to countries that have healthcare systems more sensible than ours. Elected conservatives have no obligation to roll over and play dead -- but they have no prerogative to disrupt the political process.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #2594 on: September 23, 2009, 03:42:26 pm »

Why do you continue to ignore the question about why you chose to include this NJ poll and rejected the earlier one?

I'm going to keep asking until you answer.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2595 on: September 23, 2009, 03:57:42 pm »

Why do you continue to ignore the question about why you chose to include this NJ poll and rejected the earlier one?

I'm going to keep asking until you answer.

Do you like banging your head against a wall too?
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #2596 on: September 23, 2009, 04:20:53 pm »

Iowa(Rasmussen)

Approve 48%
Disapprove 49%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_2010_iowa_senate_september_22_2009
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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« Reply #2597 on: September 23, 2009, 04:24:57 pm »

The last Iowa poll that gave Obama positive approvals was more accurate, so we should keep that one.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #2598 on: September 23, 2009, 04:25:56 pm »

The last Iowa poll that gave Obama positive approvals was more accurate, so we should keep that one.

Actually, this one rounds up to an approval, so don't worry about it.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2599 on: September 23, 2009, 05:08:52 pm »

Omg, stupid conservatives! It doesn't matter how bad Obama's approvals are. The Age Wave will still cause him to win.
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