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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1043956 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #2550 on: September 20, 2009, 07:56:58 pm »

Neither of the polls should be used then, not both.

Which is the point I've been trying to make. It's about consistency. Smiley

Oddly the effect would be to negate the two last polls involving Virginia, which means that the state would remain light-green as it was before the Rasmussen poll that showed a 49-50 split on approval ratings.

The New Jersey poll is of course inconsistent with what is shown in politically-similar states... like Connecticut; if anything it looks like an inversion of what one might expect.     
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #2551 on: September 20, 2009, 07:58:19 pm »

Neither of the polls should be used then, not both.

Which is the point I've been trying to make. It's about consistency. Smiley

Oddly the effect would be to negate the two last polls involving Virginia, which means that the state would remain light-green as it was before the Rasmussen poll that showed a 49-50 split on approval ratings.

The New Jersey poll is of course inconsistent with what is shown in politically-similar states... like Connecticut; if anything it looks like an inversion of what one might expect.     

Then don't use the stupid Maine outlier either, you incompetent troll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2552 on: September 20, 2009, 08:29:38 pm »
« Edited: September 21, 2009, 11:10:15 am by pbrower2a »

Neither of the polls should be used then, not both.

Which is the point I've been trying to make. It's about consistency. Smiley

Oddly the effect would be to negate the two last polls involving Virginia, which means that the state would remain light-green as it was before the Rasmussen poll that showed a 49-50 split on approval ratings.

The New Jersey poll is of course inconsistent with what is shown in politically-similar states... like Connecticut; if anything it looks like an inversion of what one might expect.     

Then don't use the stupid Maine outlier either, you incompetent troll.

Outliers tend to get whittled down.  Nobody expects Maine to go 68-31 for Obama in 2012; it didn't go 60-40 in 2008. But only if Obama has a catastrophically-incompetent Presidency is Maine in question in 2012 will the state be in question as an Obama win -- and the GOP nominee will win. Just wait; even if the next approval rating for Obama is 64% the shade for Obama becomes less pronounced. 

Maine sticks out because it has a large territory for its electoral vote count. The state has almost the area of Ohio and a fifth the electoral votes. Consider the illusion that a state with a large area and few electoral votes can offer: Montana has roughly the area of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio combined, and only three electoral votes while the five other states have 79 electoral votes. I have put Maine in the "7" category because of rounding -- and because the most interesting area is between 45 and 55 I don't round up anything from 45 to 54, inclusive. 

Attention is best placed at the states rightly seen as the likely margin of victory in the 2012 election -- Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada... maybe New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania showing deep trouble for Obama should he be in electoral trouble.

Much remains unknown -- especially who will be the Republican nominee, whether Obama loses significant support in places that Democrats used to take for granted or whether he can gain support in places in which he got clobbered in 2008. There could be a third-party challenge.  So far this map can show some trends. One of the most obvious is that the honeymoon is over. We shall see how the health-care debate goes soon enough. We will also see whether the right-wing tax revolt is successful in eroding support for the President or whether it peters out. 

All that we have is approval ratings or performance appraisals, and we don't have enough to predict exactly how Obama will fare in 2012. Some states haven't been polled at all, and some of the most recent polls for some states come from this winter. We can see patterns and we can see noise -- the latter, minor variations that mean little.         
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2553 on: September 21, 2009, 10:49:20 am »

TX and MN approvals to be released later today.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2554 on: September 21, 2009, 11:54:07 am »

TX and MN approvals to be released later today.

From who?
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Rowan
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« Reply #2555 on: September 21, 2009, 03:56:40 pm »

Looks like RAS didn't include a presidential approval in his Franken poll. Weird.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #2556 on: September 21, 2009, 06:43:02 pm »

PPP gives some hints about their upcoming Arizona poll:

The big question on our Arizona poll tomorrow is whether Barack Obama is set up to win the state in 2012, and the answer as of today is no. He is winning 9-10% of the 2008 McCain vote against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin but that's not quite enough.

-Two positive points for Obama from the poll though: only 3% of his 2008 voters disapprove of the job he's doing and independents are split 45-45 on his health care plan. That's the first poll we've done where indies weren't opposed. And he certainly doesn't seem to have a base problem in Arizona.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #2557 on: September 21, 2009, 09:10:52 pm »

Didn't Pbrower say Obama is a lock to win Arizona?
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Rowan
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« Reply #2558 on: September 21, 2009, 09:45:18 pm »

Texas(Rasmussen)

Approve 53%
Disapprove 56%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/texas/most_in_texas_give_public_health_agencies_positive_marks_on_swine_flu_response
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #2559 on: September 21, 2009, 09:48:57 pm »


109%?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2560 on: September 21, 2009, 09:49:34 pm »

Didn't Pbrower say Obama is a lock to win Arizona?

No!

I haven't said that he is a lock to win re-election; he can still fail badly as President. Likely? I doubt it. He just has too many political skills.  

I have said that Senator John Kyl wins the state should he be the Republican nominee for President or Vice-President. The first is unlikely; the second is as likely as many others. Favorite Son effect is real, but not 100% effective.  It means much free media access by a candidate, that his usual campaign apparatus for winning statewide elections (typically for Governor or US Senate)  can seal things up early, and that lots of people have favors to return as votes. It means that he has the pulse of the voting public in that state, and that he need not introduce himself as an outsider. Those are huge advantages, and unless someone contends that John McCain has become a political schmuck in Arizona,  the Favorite Son effect will be significant. It does not remain after the candidate has left. Is anyone ready to say that some other potential GOP nominee of 2008 would have done as well as McCain in Arizona?

Of course such does not apply to a candidate who has never won statewide office -- let's say a big-city mayor or a Representative (Rudy Giuliani may have had that problem in 2008), and it does not apply to someone whose name is poison (example: Rick Santorum is not going to win Pennsylvania). If someone has a reputation as a political lightweight in that state, then the Favorite Son effect doesn't exist.

All that I have said is that if Barack Obama does as well in 2012 with the sorts of voters that he did well with in 2008... he has a good chance of winning Arizona. He has a far better chance of winning Arizona than of winning any Plains state or any of the Clinton-but-not-Obama States of the New Orleans-Wheeling Arc.  He could win Arizona while losing Indiana. He absolutely won't win Arizona in a 50-50 election. 52-47 as in 2008?  Arizona has then about a 50-50 chance of voting for Obama. 53-46?  Maybe 70%. 54-45? About 90% -- and that is with Obama holding North Carolina and Indiana while picking up Missouri and perhaps Montana as well. Anything "beyond" Arizona will be difficult -- even Georgia and the Dakotas. To pick up Georgia he must practically resuscitate the old Clinton coalition, which might cost some electoral votes elsewhere.







 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2561 on: September 21, 2009, 09:59:43 pm »



It's 43-56.

I forgive the typo.

56% rounds up to 60% for the level of color:



Come on, Wisconsin, Indiana, and NE-02!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2562 on: September 22, 2009, 12:30:51 am »

Looks like RAS didn't include a presidential approval in his Franken poll. Weird.

Yeah that's odd. I was expecting one.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2563 on: September 22, 2009, 08:39:26 am »

Btw, why did they use an "approval ratings-scale" for Pawlenty but an "excellent/good/fair/poor-scale" for Franken and Klobuchar, that is clearly showing lower numbers for the 2 Dems than approval ratings would ? Maybe Franken would even have POSITIVE approvals ? Yeah, because Rasmussen is a right-wing HACK institute ! Smiley Tongue
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #2564 on: September 22, 2009, 08:46:20 am »

Actually Obama's approval is listed on the crosstabs in the premium section:

Approve 55%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/premium_content/state_polls_general/minnesota/crosstabs_minnesota_september_15_2009
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Rowan
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« Reply #2565 on: September 22, 2009, 10:06:25 am »

2012 Arizona(PPP)

Romney 50%
Obama 43%

Huckabee 49%
Obama 45%

Obama 47%
Palin 47%

Obama Approval: 47/47

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_922806.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2566 on: September 22, 2009, 01:16:56 pm »

Arizona is a 47-47 tie; Minnesota's 55% rounds up (I rounded up Texas, so don't quibble).



Colorado, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada should be interesting.  Come in Indiana and NE-02, too!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2567 on: September 22, 2009, 01:19:49 pm »

Arizona is a 47-47 tie; Minnesota's 55% rounds up (I rounded up Texas, so don't quibble).



Colorado, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada should be interesting.  Come in Indiana and NE-02, too!


Please stop rounding polls up and down. MN's 55% cannot be rounded up to 60%, because it's 55%-45% and there's a 4% MoE.

BTW: Nobody seems to polls IN, a really interesting state that has not been polled for 1 year. I have written to PPP to include it in their user choice, but they have never done so ... Sad
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2568 on: September 22, 2009, 01:56:17 pm »
« Edited: September 22, 2009, 03:04:08 pm by pbrower2a »

Arizona is a 47-47 tie; Minnesota's 55% rounds up (I rounded up Texas, so don't quibble).



Colorado, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada should be interesting.  Come in Indiana and NE-02, too!


Please stop rounding polls up and down. MN's 55% cannot be rounded up to 60%, because it's 55%-45% and there's a 4% MoE.

BTW: Nobody seems to polls IN, a really interesting state that has not been polled for 1 year. I have written to PPP to include it in their user choice, but they have never done so ... Sad

I'm going to treat 55% as "5", but 56-64 as "6". 65-74 as "7", 75-84 as "8", and anything above 85 as a "9" (in case someone polls DC). 45-55 is the interesting area, and anything beyond that suggests the possibility of a blowout. That goes just the same for disapprovals, too.

You have a case on 55%; that is a 10% lead, and McCain did take a quixotic effort to win Pennsylvania in the last few weeks -- one that few Democrats thought could succeed. 

I'm going to start treating states with polls older than six months as "unpolled". So the orange disappears:



Romney would absolutely crush Obama in Utah, so I will keep that state shaded yellow.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2569 on: September 22, 2009, 02:17:46 pm »

New Maryland poll (Yeehaw !) about Obama to be released tomorrow.

Here's the first part of it:

http://wbal.com/apps/news/articlefiles/36023-Maryland%20Media%20Poll%20Part%201%20September%202009.doc

Good to see a popular Democratic Governor once in a while ... Smiley
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« Reply #2570 on: September 22, 2009, 09:10:18 pm »

Arizona is a 47-47 tie; Minnesota's 55% rounds up (I rounded up Texas, so don't quibble).



Colorado, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada should be interesting.  Come in Indiana and NE-02, too!


Please stop rounding polls up and down. MN's 55% cannot be rounded up to 60%, because it's 55%-45% and there's a 4% MoE.

BTW: Nobody seems to polls IN, a really interesting state that has not been polled for 1 year. I have written to PPP to include it in their user choice, but they have never done so ... Sad

I'm going to treat 55% as "5", but 56-64 as "6". 65-74 as "7", 75-84 as "8", and anything above 85 as a "9" (in case someone polls DC). 45-55 is the interesting area, and anything beyond that suggests the possibility of a blowout. That goes just the same for disapprovals, too.

You have a case on 55%; that is a 10% lead, and McCain did take a quixotic effort to win Pennsylvania in the last few weeks -- one that few Democrats thought could succeed. 

I'm going to start treating states with polls older than six months as "unpolled". So the orange disappears:



Romney would absolutely crush Obama in Utah, so I will keep that state shaded yellow.
My map update based on polls for 2012. Anything can change from now until then.
DEM: 284
REP: 250
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2571 on: September 22, 2009, 11:31:57 pm »

Wisconsin should be colored red; last month's polls for Iowa and Wisconsin both showed marginal advantages for "Generic Republican"; this month a poll showed Iowa a positive approval for Obama and Minnesota showing a decisive one (55%). Wisconsin is typically between Iowa and Minnesota in its polls, so it's not as if Wisconsin is likely to vote for the Republican if Minnesota and Iowa vote for Obama.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2572 on: September 22, 2009, 11:53:12 pm »

LOL @ WI being blue. Obama would kill off any of those current joke Republicans (Huck, Romney, Palin) there. Pawlenty would have a better time there, but would still lose by 5%+
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2573 on: September 23, 2009, 12:10:19 am »

Maryland (Gonzales Research)Sad

60% Favorable
27% Unfavorable

58% Approve
31% Disapprove

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from September 8 through September 17, 2009.  A total of 833 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns. The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/20085013/Maryland-Media-Poll-Part-Two-September-2009
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2574 on: September 23, 2009, 12:25:45 am »

Georgia (Strategic Vision)Sad

35% Approve
58% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted September 18-20, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is 3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_092309.htm

New York (Siena Research Institute)Sad

65% Favorable
31% Unfavorable

This SRI survey was conducted September 13-17, 2009 by telephone calls to 792 New York State registered voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.5 percentage points. Data was statistically adjusted by age, gender, party and geography to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing weighted to reflect known population patterns.

http://www.siena.edu/pages/1167.asp
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