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  Talk Elections
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031386 times)
DariusNJ
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« Reply #1500 on: July 21, 2009, 04:29:52 pm »

Gallup poll for the week ending July 19th:

59% approve, 33% disapprove

71% approval among 18-29 year olds, 49% approval among those over 65
His best region is the East, with 68% approval, while his worst is the South, with 55% approval

51% of Whites approve, 81% of Non Whites approve (94% of blacks, 79% of hispanics)

92% of Dems approve, 56% of independents, as do 23% of Republicans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/121199/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Demographic-Groups.aspx

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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #1501 on: July 21, 2009, 04:42:31 pm »

All these statewide polls tell me that Obama has only moderate approval in most states, but very strong in Democratic strongholds. This is good news for both sides in a way. The GOP can make inroads into lean-Dem states, while the Democrats have a solid wall of states they will almost definitely hold.

Taking the last five presidential elections, the Democrats have a wall of 18 states plus D.C., which currently stands at 248 electoral votes compared with a Republican wall, of 13 states, totalling 95 electoral votes. You could add the Clinton states (AR, KY, LA, TN and WV) to the GOP as well given only KY saw a modest swing to the Democrats in 2008. Of course, 1992 and 1996 had Ross Perot in the mix

Perhaps the floor of the Democratic Party has reached a point to which an electoral majority is a lot easier than that of the Republican Party. But positive accomplishments, for the president and his party, are going to matter immensely moving forward

Looking at the latest Diageo/Hotline, voters may be sour with politicians (period) considering the president's approvals slumped 9%; congressional Democrats' approval slumped 8% and congressional Republicans' approval slumped 9%. If that were to hold, maybe a significant third party candidacy could be a factor in 2012

As for NJ, Corzine seems most certainly a drag on the Democratic brand and I doubt of the two Democratic senators are particularly held in high esteem either. But then NJ has a habit of disliking its Democrats only to re-elect them. Still, if Christie doesn't win it for the Republicans this fall but what does Corzine have pots of? Lish, lolly, the moolah. I'm not sure I'd support Corzine and I certainly have reservations as to the extent to which the president should get too actively involved. His job is to lead, to govern, to motivate - the nation through stormy seas

As for VA does it want to role the die on continued Democratic governence or dos it want 'change'? At least, the VA GOP rid itself of an inflamatory state party chairman and Bob McDonnell is obviously an attractive prospect to Virginians, since he has the edge over Deeds. Kaine seems, reasonably, popular but by no means to extent Warner was and, indeed, is - and rightly so, he was, obviously, a very good governor - and would make a very good president, one day, if he could only get out of the primary starting blocks
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pogo stick
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« Reply #1502 on: July 21, 2009, 05:18:14 pm »

Latest newsweek poll!!!

Obama approval:
approve- 69 pc
dissaprove-18 pc

Latest rass poll!!!

Obama approval:
Approve - 21%
Disapprove - 79%
lol
but rasmussen polls are more fair than newsweek's Wink

Of course, only the right leaning pollsters are ever fair...
OH GOD FORBID, OBAMA GETTING LOW RATINGS FROM ANY POLLS MEANS THAT THOSE POLLS ARE REPUBLICAN POLLS!

GROW UP!

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change08
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« Reply #1503 on: July 21, 2009, 05:26:50 pm »

Latest newsweek poll!!!

Obama approval:
approve- 69 pc
dissaprove-18 pc

Latest rass poll!!!

Obama approval:
Approve - 21%
Disapprove - 79%
lol
but rasmussen polls are more fair than newsweek's Wink

Of course, only the right leaning pollsters are ever fair...
OH GOD FORBID, OBAMA GETTING LOW RATINGS FROM ANY POLLS MEANS THAT THOSE POLLS ARE REPUBLICAN POLLS!

GROW UP!



Well considering Scott Rasmussen worked on Bush Jr's re-election campaign, i'm inclined to detect a slight right lean.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1504 on: July 21, 2009, 05:27:57 pm »

Latest newsweek poll!!!

Obama approval:
approve- 69 pc
dissaprove-18 pc

Latest rass poll!!!

Obama approval:
Approve - 21%
Disapprove - 79%
lol
but rasmussen polls are more fair than newsweek's Wink

Of course, only the right leaning pollsters are ever fair...
OH GOD FORBID, OBAMA GETTING LOW RATINGS FROM ANY POLLS MEANS THAT THOSE POLLS ARE REPUBLICAN POLLS!

GROW UP!



Well considering Scott Rasmussen worked on Bush Jr's re-election campaign, i'm inclined to detect a slight right lean.

Don't you think you should probably use numbers, not just assume that a previous affiliation has caused a pollster to introduce a subtle bias into their sampling?

I mean, he'd (generally) have to go out of his way to do that intentionally.
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Rowan
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« Reply #1505 on: July 21, 2009, 07:28:57 pm »

The problem is, he actually discloses all of his methods. He weights his polls by party ID which is why his numbers always seem more Republican.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1506 on: July 21, 2009, 11:45:23 pm »

More bad polls for Obama:

ARG National Survey

Adults

52% Approve
44% Disapprove

Registered Voters

51% Approve
46% Disapprove

The results presented here are based on 1,100 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of adults 18 years and older. The interviews were completed July 17 through 20, 2009. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy

Georgia (Strategic Vision)

40% Approve
52% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted July 17-19, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is 3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_072209.htm
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1507 on: July 21, 2009, 11:50:19 pm »


Ouch! Georgia was close in 2008!



We will likely see a bunch of southern states go from green to tan when some of the old polls are supplanted.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1508 on: July 22, 2009, 12:01:49 am »

Associated Press/GfK (1006 adults, July 16-20)

55% Approve
42% Disapprove

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP_GfK_Poll_Politics_Economy_Topline.pdf
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Alcon
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« Reply #1509 on: July 22, 2009, 10:03:30 am »

The problem is, he actually discloses all of his methods.

He discloses his phone list and his sampling method?  No pollster discloses all of their methods.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1510 on: July 22, 2009, 11:24:14 am »



Georgia (Strategic Vision)

40% Approve
52% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted July 17-19, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is 3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_072209.htm

I doubt his numbers are that low in Georgia. I think they're more in the 45-50% range.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1511 on: July 22, 2009, 11:29:24 am »

PPP Louisiana:

Obama: 44% approve, 50% disapprove
74% of Dems approve, 30% of indeps approve, 12% of Reps approve
91% of AA's approve, 25% of whites approve

Landrieu: 43% approve, 43% disapprove

Jindal: 55% approve

Palin: 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable

Jindal vs Obama: Jindal 54, Obama 40

Palin vs Obama: Palin 49, Obama 42

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Louisiana_722.pdf
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change08
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« Reply #1512 on: July 22, 2009, 11:50:35 am »

PPP Louisiana:

Obama: 44% approve, 50% disapprove
74% of Dems approve, 30% of indeps approve, 12% of Reps approve
91% of AA's approve, 25% of whites approve

Landrieu: 43% approve, 43% disapprove

Jindal: 55% approve

Palin: 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable

Jindal vs Obama: Jindal 54, Obama 40

Palin vs Obama: Palin 49, Obama 42

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Louisiana_722.pdf

Bad numbers for Palin considering it's Louisiana, one of the few states that swung GOP in '08. Obama's numbers are better than what I expected here.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1513 on: July 22, 2009, 01:13:20 pm »

From the LA poll by PPP:

Whites Approval: 25%, Obama gets 19% against Jindal and 23% against Palin

Blacks Approval: 91%, Obama gets 91% against Jindal and 92% against Palin

He got 14% against McCain, but regularly polled 20% or more among Whites before the 2008 election (Rasmussen 23%, ARG 21% and Southeastern Louisiana University 17%).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1514 on: July 22, 2009, 01:21:42 pm »

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac University)Sad

56% Approve
37% Disapprove

From July 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,173 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 511 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 512 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1351
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1515 on: July 22, 2009, 01:50:29 pm »

Expected (Louisiana):



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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #1516 on: July 22, 2009, 02:09:22 pm »

We've got some pretty screwed up numbers.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1517 on: July 22, 2009, 02:13:26 pm »

What is Louisana, gay? Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1518 on: July 22, 2009, 02:56:48 pm »


No, not gay enough.

Sorry about the dreadful pun. It's simply reverting to the pattern that it showed in November 2008.

Obama has been President for six months, and he has yet to face a natural disaster. After all, hurricane season has yet to happen, and the southeastern US always gets at least one. How well will he handle it? I can't imagine him bungling the response any hurricane as badly as Dubya bungled the response to Katrina.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1519 on: July 22, 2009, 03:44:51 pm »


No, not gay enough.

Sorry about the dreadful pun. It's simply reverting to the pattern that it showed in November 2008.

Obama has been President for six months, and he has yet to face a natural disaster. After all, hurricane season has yet to happen, and the southeastern US always gets at least one. How well will he handle it? I can't imagine him bungling the response any hurricane as badly as Dubya bungled the response to Katrina.

Well, what do you call a Republican that doesn't get a chubby over Palin?
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Zarn
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« Reply #1520 on: July 22, 2009, 04:02:24 pm »


No, not gay enough.

Sorry about the dreadful pun. It's simply reverting to the pattern that it showed in November 2008.

Obama has been President for six months, and he has yet to face a natural disaster. After all, hurricane season has yet to happen, and the southeastern US always gets at least one. How well will he handle it? I can't imagine him bungling the response any hurricane as badly as Dubya bungled the response to Katrina.

Well, what do you call a Republican that doesn't get a chubby over Palin?

Sane...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1521 on: July 22, 2009, 11:54:28 pm »

The first 2 states from SurveyUSA's monthly tracking have been released:

Missouri

55% Approve (+4)
42% Disapprove (-3)

Kansas

41% Approve (-8)
53% Disapprove (+4)

http://www.kctv5.com/news/20146837/detail.html
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1522 on: July 23, 2009, 12:24:26 am »

The first 2 states from SurveyUSA's monthly tracking have been released:

Missouri

55% Approve (+4)
42% Disapprove (-3)

Kansas

41% Approve (-8)
53% Disapprove (+4)

http://www.kctv5.com/news/20146837/detail.html

Wacky changes.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1523 on: July 23, 2009, 04:48:11 am »
« Edited: July 23, 2009, 04:49:40 pm by pbrower2a »

Two Midwestern states from SurveyUSA's monthly tracking (KS, MO) . Down to Earth a bit in both states:



Since 1960, the only Presidential candidate to win Missouri and lose the election was John McCain, and THE bellwether state seems to revert to its old pattern. In view of the Blue Firewall, and that there are several states not in the Firewall  more D than Missouri (NM, IA, NH, NV, VA, CO, OH, FL, NC, IN, perhaps AZ),  Obama cannot win Missouri without getting re-elected. Demographic change alone would still be enough to swing Missouri from R to D.

So here's how I call it 39 and a half months out:



Key (margins) :

Deep Blue:     Generic GOP win 10% or more
Blue:              Generic GOP win 6 - 9.9%
Pale Blue:      Generic GOP win, 3 - 5.9%

White             Far too close to call
Pink:              Obama wins 3 - 5.9%
Red:               Obama wins 6- 9.9%
Deep Red:     Obama wins 10% or more
 

Jeb Bush or Charlie Crist probably wins Florida, but I don't see either of the two winning the Republican Presidential nomination, and VP won't be enough for either. Thune would probably be enough to flip South Dakota as a VP nominee. Romney stands to lose a raft of Southern states if Obama plays the Clinton-like populist role well this time. Huckabee could lose Utah if he doesn't make amends with the LDS Church and wins the nomination.

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change08
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« Reply #1524 on: July 23, 2009, 06:40:45 am »

The first 2 states from SurveyUSA's monthly tracking have been released:

Missouri

55% Approve (+4)
42% Disapprove (-3)

Kansas

41% Approve (-8)
53% Disapprove (+4)

http://www.kctv5.com/news/20146837/detail.html

Good numbers from Missouri, and Kansas is to be expected I guess.
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