The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Poundingtherock]

did our Democrat friends object to "interactive" polls when Mark Penn released a poll showing Obama up 8-19 points on all potential Republican challengers.

I don't think the "interactive" part is the problem here.  Zogby is the problem.

[Poundingtherock]

Sullivan's analysis is completely wrong.

Nobody does well by taking on the "left" or the "right" in a non-primary setting.  What indies seem to hate more than anything is conflict and that's what it appears Obama is creating.  So the interpretation that indies have for the middle isn't actually for moderate positions but rather the perception that there is no conflict.

However, there is a different dynamic at play in a primary setting.  It helps you dramatically to be running against someone viewed to your political extreme in a primary.  The problem for Obama is that indies won't view it that way outside a political campaign.  They view it as "even Democrats think he's falling apart, so he must be bad" rather than "he's willing to take on the Democrat Party."

We'll see what the Gallup tracking poll and Rasmussen daily tracking polls show the next couple days.

[Poundingtherock]

Klobuchar and Gillibrand are two talentless hacks from blue states that can in no way be won by any Republican in a one-on-one matchup.  Pawlenty woould have never left the hockey rink without third party liberals in Minnesota.  It is impossible for a Republican to win statewide in either NY or MN.

The Democrat Party, if it were intelligent, would instead rally around people like Joe Manchin, not people like Klobuchar and Gillibrand who do not have to do anything to win re-election.

[Poundingtherock]

The Democrat Party base would vote for John Edwards over any Republican.  In case you haven't figured it out, 85% of African-Americans would vote for Spitzer over any Republican.

Manchin would do about as well with the Democrat Party base as any other liberal Democrat because the Democrat Party base votes for the Democrat come hell or high water.  There is absolutely no independent thought in the Democrat Party base when it comes to voting.

Manchin and people like him can win everyone in the Democrat Party base that obama would win including some right-leaning people and even conservatives that Obama could never win.  He'd win perhaps close to 60% of the vote nationwide in a one-on-one race.

[Poundingtherock]

Gallup: 43/49

[Poundingtherock]

Don't get too excited Joe.  Gallup has him at 46/48

[Poundingtherock]

it's hilarious that some people here think SurveyUSA is a joke.

These guys kicked PPP's ass two election cyles in a row.  I guess the Democrat Party folks here are going to argue that surveyusa changes its results at the very end to fit reality.   PPP did the same thing.  Some people here forget that PPP showed Perry and Paul in toss-ups in the summer.

As for the Roanoke poll, since when did college pollsters become conservative-leaning?  That poll is of residents, meaning that it should be favorable to Obama.  There's no reason to believe PPP over Roanoke. They both may be at the extremes but I would posit that if you are willing to disbelieve the Roanoke poll, I would disbelieve the PPP one as well considering that it's unlikely for Obama to be at 50% in Virginia based on where he is nationally.

[Poundingtherock]

SurveyUSA suggests that a lot of white liberals/moderates are unhappy with Obama.

However, SurveyUSA's actually crosstabs are extremely favorable to Obama and the Democrat Party.  SUSA shows that conservatives only have a 31/24 lead over liberals in the state or that there are 13% more Democrats than Republicans.

So SUSA isn't really finding overly conservative samples.

[Poundingtherock]

Ok Tender, I'll play along.

There is no way Obama is at 46% nationally in Gallup and then for PPP to show Obama at 46% approval in North Carolina or 50% in Virginia or 45% in Florida.

I'm just utilizing your logic.

[Poundingtherock]

So let me get this straight:

You trust Rasmussen's daily tracking approval rating poll (but not his state-by-state approval rating polling) but you distrust his head-to-head polling

You trust SurveyUSA's head-to-head polling but you distrust its state-by-state approval rating polling.

And of course, anything that a Democrat pollster who was pimping Elaine Marshall produces is accurate because Nate Silver said that its end results were Republican-leaning, ignoring the fact that its earlier polling showed Rand Paul and Rick Perry in dead heats.

Is this an accurate representation of your view on the pollsters?

[Poundingtherock]

Do you deny that Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are finding a completely different presidential race than the presidential race PPP is finding?

You just stated that all three have something to brag about but you are ignoring the fact that Ras and SurveyUSA are finding a different America than PPP.

I'd take SurveyUSA over PPP but PPP (at the end) over Rasmussen.  It seems that Ras and PPP are more prone to producing outliers for its head-to-head polling than SurveyUSA.

[Poundingtherock]

SurveyUSA has polled the 2012 race.  They did so in early November.

I'll concede that it's odd that SurveyUSA produces such bad results for Obama when it polls adults as polling adults generally favor Obama.  It's very unusual for it to be the other way around but that just happens to be the case with SurveyUSA.  I don't know why you would object to it considering that it's likely to find a sample favorable to Obama.  Perhaps SurveyUSA is finding too many adult non-voters who lean Democrat who are upset with Obama.  That may be a flaw in their model.

However, for every PPIC-type poll that you cite to disprove SurveyUSA's findings, I can just cite another Roanoke college poll to provide support for SurveyUSA's findings.  Do I believe that Obama is at 36% in Virginia among adults?  No but I don't think he's at 50% among registered voters either.  Both results are laughable.

Keep in mind too that Mason-Dixon will come close to SurveyUSA in a lot of these states.

[Poundingtherock]

Any other conspiracy theories?  I'm sure SurveyUSA would have said something about it if they didn't in reality poll it but hey, you are free to believe in any conspiracy that you want to believe in.

[Poundingtherock]

Tender,

Hey man, you were one who claimed something a lot more sinister than dubious.  Yes, I think it was a mistake on SurveyUSA's part to push everyone to make a choice.  However, that critique is different from claiming SurveyUSA never conducted the polling (a la Strategic Vision/Research 2000) as you suggested.

[Poundingtherock]

Tender,

I'll accept that.  But you damn well know that Rasmussen is going to show a close race for Obama (including the Palin-Obama matchup).

Your friends on this blog will easily dismiss Rasmussen as a right-wing pollster.  I'll remember and see if you are willing to stand up for Rasmussen when that time comes.

[Poundingtherock]

Joe,

He's not getting 50% anywhere besides perhaps the Washington Post poll.

Ras's 51% disapproval is as hardened as you can get.  That number isn't improving even if the economy comes back dramatically.  If you believe Rasmussen, Obama's goose is cooked.

[Poundingtherock]

Pbrower,

We'll see what Rasmussen shows.  Chances are that you'll be denouncing Ras as a right-wing pollster.

[Poundingtherock]

By your logic, if Obama gets over 50%, he's guaranteed to win just like George H.W. Bush was in 1991.

[Poundingtherock]

Brower,

Even your boys at the Daily Kos show her up in Montana, a state that Obama only lost by 3 last time with plenty more undecided Republicans than Democrats.

Explain to me how Obama wins 47 states against her if he cannot win Montana (and there's no way he would win if you look at the undecideds).

[Poundingtherock]

Neither of you understand that if someone isn't willing to vote for Obama now, he or she will never be willing to vote for Obama, especially in the matchups with Palin.

What Obama is getting against her now is all that he's going to get.  He has no room to grow in a matchup against her.  All of his base is already voting for him and if a swing voter isn't voting for Obama now, he or she will be voting for her.

[Poundingtherock]

Pbrower,

So Mormons don't have kids who become decorated military veterans?

Or Mormons have kids who spend time in racist churches where they learn about how the CIA created the HIV Virus to kill white people?

Or Mormons consumed crack cocaine (you've already noted the smoking)?  Or Mormons make real estate arrangements with convicted felons?

This one was too easy.

[Poundingtherock]

Magellan(R) in Nebraska: 36/60 favorable/unfavorable

That comes out to a 47/49 favorable/unfavorable rating nationally.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Magellan-Nebraska-2012-US-Senate-Survey-Release-122210.pdf

[Poundingtherock]

Unless you think his approval rating in Nebraska is higher than his favorable rating, the distinction you are drawing is irrelevant.  In all likelihood, Pbrower should include Obama's nebraska rating in his map because to do so would actually be favorable to obama.

[Poundingtherock]

I see Tender is pimping Gallup now that Obama is back up (he'll fall back down in around two days in Gallup) and now is casting asperions on Rasmussen after praising his national approval rating polling.

[Poundingtherock]

Uh no.  He's doing better against the Republican according to Elaine Marshall's pimp.  SurveyUSA will almost certainly show him doing much worse.