The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, -1.

Head to head is tied at 46/48 Obama, and with leaners 47/49.

 On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, -2


Disapprove: 46%, +2

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

Head to head, is still Obama 50% (u), Romney 44% (u).  Let's see if it closes by Tuesday.

[Lief 🐋]

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

lol

[Tender Branson]

Probably Gallup has a bad Obama sample inside (too much disapproval).

[Skill and Chance]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, -2


Disapprove: 46%, +2

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

Head to head, is still Obama 50% (u), Romney 44% (u).  Let's see if it closes by Tuesday.

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

[J. J.]

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

lol

So you think Obama is in full collapse, Lief?

[J. J.]

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

Actually it does fit.  People do make the comparison with the alternative.

[Lief 🐋]

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

lol

So you think Obama is in full collapse, Lief?

lol

[Skill and Chance]

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

Actually it does fit.  People do make the comparison with the alternative.

But the QE3 rally coming to an end also fits the timing here.  Historically, gaffes don't fundamentally move a race in polling.  Bitter clingers didn't in 2008, for example.  By contrast, the stock market is highly correlated.

[J. J.]

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

Actually it does fit.  People do make the comparison with the alternative.

But the QE3 rally coming to an end also fits the timing here.  Historically, gaffes don't fundamentally move a race in polling.  Bitter clingers didn't in 2008, for example.  By contrast, the stock market is highly correlated.

Well, not really.  The market has not improved greatly since QE 3 was announced, though it has improved.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, u.

Head to head is at 46/48 Obama, and with leaners 47/49.

 On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Skill and Chance]

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

Actually it does fit.  People do make the comparison with the alternative.

But the QE3 rally coming to an end also fits the timing here.  Historically, gaffes don't fundamentally move a race in polling.  Bitter clingers didn't in 2008, for example.  By contrast, the stock market is highly correlated.

Well, not really.  The market has not improved greatly since QE 3 was announced, though it has improved.

I still maintain that perceptions about the economy are behind Obama's better standing this month than last.  The favorability gap is roughly the same as it has always been but approval is up.  We're  well out of convention bounce range now, so it can't be that.  Consider that Obama and Romney are now in a statistical tie on "handling of the economy" in most polls and that the direction of the country numbers have also closed from 65-30 to about 55-40.  You're right that the economy isn't doing anything amazing, but the markets and consumer confidence are up at the margins.  It's mainly psychological.  It seems like the "this would be 1932 without me" Obama narrative is finally winning over the middle 10%.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, u


Disapprove: 47%, +1

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

Head to head, is still Obama 49% (-1), Romney 44% (u).  Let's see if it closes, even more, by Tuesday.

[Skill and Chance]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, u


Disapprove: 47%, +1

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

Head to head, is still Obama 49% (-1), Romney 44% (u).  Let's see if it closes, even more, by Tuesday.

Gallup goes LV tomorrow, so that will surely close the margin a bit.  I still think it's the relatively bad econ news this week.  Or the end of a small "rally around the leader" related to Libya.

I gather that you think the economy is pretty baked in now, barring something crazy like +350K or net job losses in September?

[J. J.]

Gallup goes LV tomorrow, so that will surely close the margin a bit.  I still think it's the relatively bad econ news this week.  Or the end of a small "rally around the leader" related to Libya.

I gather that you think the economy is pretty baked in now, barring something crazy like +350K or net job losses in September?

Yes and no.  The right track numbers peaked after the DNC and then have bobbed slightly lower. 

[J. J.]

I wiill be out tomorrow, if someone wants to get the numbers.

Please remember that on 10/1, Rasmussen ncluding leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, -1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, -1.

Head to head is at 50/47 Obama, and .

 On 10/1, Rasmussen started including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 47%, +1


Disapprove: 46%, u

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

Head to head, is still Obama 49% (-1), Romney 44% (u). 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, -1.

Head to head is at 48/47 Obama.

 

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, +1


Disapprove: 45%, -1

Head to head, is still Obama 50% (+1), Romney 44% (-1). 

[King]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, +1


Disapprove: 45%, -1

Head to head, is still Obama 50% (+1), Romney 44% (-1). 

People slightly remembered the 47% comment a little more today.

[Speed of Sound]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, +1


Disapprove: 45%, -1

Head to head, is still Obama 50% (+1), Romney 44% (-1). 

People slightly remembered the 47% comment a little more today.

As wonderfully cheeky as ever, eh King?

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, +1


Disapprove: 45%, -1

Head to head, is still Obama 50% (+1), Romney 44% (-1). 

People slightly remembered the 47% comment a little more today.

I'd give it another day.  The other polls are showing it closing.

[Lief 🐋]

No, they're really not:

[You kip if you want to...]

No, they're really not:

What chart you reading? Cos I see Romney up 0.2%!