The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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May 07, 2021, 09:03:47 AM

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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1068246 times)
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 22,309
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Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #100 on: September 21, 2010, 06:15:34 PM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #101 on: September 22, 2010, 09:40:23 AM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.

I agree with what you say. Pbrower, balance out the polls if you only accept CNN over Fox News or alot of people will stop taking your polls seriously.

FoX News is an oxymoron.
Pbrower, you will lose any credibility you still have if you don't include the FOX polls. Because let's face it, if those polls were very pro-Obama, you would have immediately added them. You just don't want to because they aren't good for your messiah.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 22,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #102 on: September 22, 2010, 04:10:28 PM »

I like your maps, Scifiguy. The only thing I would probably argue is that Michigan is probably only leaning Romney,  and Massachusetts is probably Safe Democrat. I'd also recommend moving Utah to Assured Romney, given the "Mormon factor".
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tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 22,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #103 on: September 23, 2010, 09:47:31 PM »

Not that anyone thinks that President Obama has a serious chance of winning Alabama, this is something of a surprise:

Alabama Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
  7% Somewhat approve
  6% Somewhat disapprove
52% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  139
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 110
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   25
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   108  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......


[/quote]
You need to add the New York poll. You can't keep ignoring polls you don't like.
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tmthforu94
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Posts: 22,309
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Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #104 on: October 05, 2010, 06:47:27 PM »

PPP - Hawaii

Approve - 51%
Disapprove - 38%
Not Sure - 11%

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/2/HI-1/11/5ZR4S

No real surprises in the cross-tabs. Obama's approvals are worse in 18-45 than they are 45+. Who would have thought that with all the youth support Obama had in 2008?
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tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #105 on: April 27, 2011, 09:21:56 AM »

I don't understand - Obama is only leading Romney by 3 and Huckabee by 1, yet you're giving North Carolina a 5-9.9% shade.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #106 on: April 27, 2011, 09:32:04 AM »

I don't understand - Obama is only leading Romney by 3 and Huckabee by 1, yet you're giving North Carolina a 5-9.9% shade.

You're still reading pbrower2a's posts, after all this time?  Huh
I have it on ignore, but I do show it's posts from time to time for humor. Hundreds of tl;dr post's later, I still cannot understand it's method is for these maps, and I doubt many can.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #107 on: May 02, 2011, 03:20:05 PM »

It will peak around 65% later in the week. Just like after his inaugeration, it will slowly go down throughout the year, especially if gas prices remain high, and will likely be about where it is now by September/October.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #108 on: June 09, 2011, 10:16:25 AM »

Obama still heavily underwater in Pennsylvania.

http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/Toplines-Media-Statewide-June2011.pdf

President Obama’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 48% to 41% (disapprove to approve), which reflects an even further decline in the percentage of those who approve of his job performance when compared with his 45% job approval score from our March Statewide Omnibus Poll.

When asked if they think President Obama deserves reelection, 43% say he has done his job well enough to deserve reelection, while 50% say it is time to give a new person a chance.



Of course he won with a very odd coalition. Kerry would have lost if he performed at Obama levels in southwest PA.

I don't know if I buy this. Didn't Pennsylvania vote against George W Bush both times?
Pennsylvania hasn't voted Republican since 1988. However, I wouldn't doubt this poll, as polling in Pennsylvania has consistently shown Obama with low approvals. I find it quite odd his approvals are lower in Pennsylvania than Ohio or North Carolina.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #109 on: July 15, 2011, 08:19:48 PM »

The only difference between the two is that things are not looking up for Obama. In fact, there's a chance things will get worse. He has the luxury of the GOP running a bunch of crazies that he could beat with a 40% approval rating on election day.

No President gets reelected with a 40% approval rating. 
Prove it.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #110 on: July 17, 2011, 10:43:45 PM »

The only difference between the two is that things are not looking up for Obama. In fact, there's a chance things will get worse. He has the luxury of the GOP running a bunch of crazies that he could beat with a 40% approval rating on election day.

No President gets reelected with a 40% approval rating. 
Prove it.

Here:

2004 Bush 48% Approval Won Reelection
1996 Clinton 54% Approval Won Reelection
1992 Bush 34% Approval Lost Reelection
1984 Reagan 58% Approval Won Reelection
1980 Carter 37% Approval Lost Reelection
1976 Ford 45% Approval Lost Reelection
1972 Nixon 56% Approval Won Reelection
1964 Johnson 74% Approval Won Reelection
1956 Eisenhower 68% Approval Won Reelection
1948 Truman stopped polling after July 1948



You have look at when they had these numbers.  Both Reagan and Clinton hit 37% in their first term, on Gallup.  Both were in an upswing at this point, well off their lows.
The quality of the opponent also matters. I think Obama's approval would need to drop under 35% for him to lose to Palin, but only under 45% to lose to Romney, maybe even higher.
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