The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

The las trip probably helped, but not this one.  We're approaching that six months mark.

[J. J.]

VA and CO really that bad?

[J. J.]

VA and CO really that bad?

CO was polled by a Republican pollster (POS) recently and it showed Obama at 43%, but Rasmussen had him at positive approval there a couple weeks ago.

VA is odd too, because Rasmussen had him close to 50% there among LV, but SUSA always has him at 40% among adults, and one could think that adult polls consist of more minority voters and therefore these adult polls in VA would show higher results for Obama.

I think I'd go with the 'bots.

[J. J.]

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!

[J. J.]

Nebraska(Rasmussen)

Approve 38%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/nebraska/toplines/toplines_2012_nebraska_senate_election_december_28_2009

We finally get a Nebraska poll and it's no surprise.

Maryland that bad too?

[J. J.]

Nebraska(Rasmussen)

Approve 38%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/nebraska/toplines/toplines_2012_nebraska_senate_election_december_28_2009

We finally get a Nebraska poll and it's no surprise.

Maryland that bad too?

Huh? Maryland is dark green.

On my monitor, it looks like Utah!

[J. J.]

On the national level, Rasmussen now has him at:

49% Approve
51% Disapprove

His best rating since early December.

Don't know if the 5-point-increase has more to do with the holidays (people are more relaxed about politicians) or with the fact that Rasmussen was hammered in the news and now he`s "upping" the numbers to make them more in line with other polls.

Or, it is a band sample size.  I think some of those numbers, like the 56% disapproval were just a bad sample (which is the reason I didn't mention it).

[J. J.]

I'm not including numbers from the special election in my map(though in this case, nothing would have changed anyway).

I think it was a question regarding Obama directly.

[J. J.]

I'm not including numbers from the special election in my map(though in this case, nothing would have changed anyway).

I think it was a question regarding Obama directly.

Isn't that still based on the "likely voters" in the special election?

I'm not sure.  They might factor those out later.

[J. J.]

Rowan, could you add the range that the colors mean at the bottom of the maps?

[J. J.]

On Rasmussen, Obama's positive and negative numbers have not moved out of a 5 point range since the first week of December.

He's been at 46.5% +/- 2.5 points.  It is remarkably stable.

[J. J.]

46.5% approval is enough to win re-election.

Does anyone notice that American involvement in Iraq has been shrinking? It is increasing in Afghanistan, which is to be expected.

I'm not exactly ready to write Obama off.  Iraq was a 2004 issue and will shrink or disappear by 2012, unless something really goes bad.  The problems is Iran and possibly Yemen.

Iraq could come back if Iran attempts to intervene.

[J. J.]

One think that should be noted is Obama's negative numbers are tending to higher than for other presidents as the same point.

[J. J.]

One think that should be noted is Obama's negative numbers are tending to higher than for other presidents as the same point.

A negative vote from someone who thinks the President the reincarnation of Josef Stalin counts just as much as someone who simply thinks him a little weaker than the opponent.

In 2012 it likely comes down to the GOTV drives.

No, there is something more.  Look at Obama's Strongly Approve and Approve numbers on Rasmussen.  Over the last month, they been about 20 points apart.  Strongly Disapprove and Disapprove have been around 12 points apart.  His current supporters tend to be weaker in their support, and his detractors tend to be stronger.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

And, you can look at it historically, on Gallup.

Reagan had the lowest the approval number of any elected postwar president at this point in his presidency, 49%.  He had a disapproval rate of 40%.  Obama has a 50% approval at the same time, and a 45% disapproval.  Even when Reagan had approval numbers around 47%, his disapproval numbers were still about five points lower than his approval numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

I'm saying Obama is tending to be more polarizing; the people that don't like him really don't like him.  The people like him, really don't like him all that much.

Now, Obama can win if even those don't feel really strongly supportive of him vote for him, but if things go badly, he may be very likely to lose those weakly supportive of him.

BTW:  I'm not in the group that strongly disapproves as of yet.   

[J. J.]

Pennsylvania (F & M)

38% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjan10_1.pdf

lol POLLFAIL!

F & M is one of the top polls for PA.  I'm not happy with the categories, however.

[J. J.]

I think he'll probably get a small SOTU bump. It won't last long though.

Somebody posted an average and said that there wouldn't be even a short term bump.  I wouldn't read too much into a "no bump," if that happens.

[J. J.]

In my opinion, his approval is likely going to enter the thirties and bottom out there by the end of the year.

If his approval goes into the thirties (which I don't think it will) the midterms are going to be an absolute bloodbath.

Actually, at about the time the of the 1994 elections, Clinton had 46% approval and 46% disapproval.  Obama has, in the same poll, 50% approval and 45% disapproval, at this time.

[J. J.]

Gallup is 47/47 today. No bump at all.

Rasmussen showed an increase on its daily, but the approval numbers are still in that 44%-49% range, though at the lower end.  If he hits 50 tomorrow or Monday, it probably is the "slight bounce."  Also if he can hold 49% for three days or more, it would be an improvement and could mark a slight bounce.

I really think we have to wait at least three days before hailing Obama's comeback or start the resignation watch. 

[J. J.]

Actually, Gallup is showing somewhat of a negative bounce from his SOTU address.

That's disastrous for Obama to get no bounce or a negative bounce from a primetime speech.

No, not really.  Some other poster noted that there was a negative effect or very little effect.

[J. J.]

This marks the first time since I think the first week in 12/09 that Obama's Approval, Disapproval, and Strongly Approve numbers were out of a 2.5 point range on Rasmussen.

The strongly disapproval numbers, however, are still in that range.  The 40% is not out of that range.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen showed a about a 10 point gain in Strongly Approve.  His Strongly Disapprove numbers are still within the 2.5 point range, though down by 3 from before the SOTU.

The SOTU probably rallied the base, but it doesn't look like it moved the others.

[J. J.]

50/49 on Rasmussen.  That marks the only time since November 16, 2009 that his approval numbers were higher than his disapproval numbers.

There really look likes a bounce in in Strongly Approve, but not a large slump in Strongly Disapprove.  Arguably no slump.

[J. J.]

Obama undeniably got a bounce.  We'll see how long it holds...

The Strongly Approve numbers already pulled back on Rasmussen. 

[J. J.]

Rowan's map looks a lot worse for Obama.

Color choice. Red and green clash; green and yellow don't. That's more an esthetic statement than a political statement. Rowan and I basically agree. 

I think Rowan's map is easier to read (though dark green Maryland looks dark red).

[J. J.]

It's interesting to note that the states would, if the polling is correct, vote for "someone else." Now, why is it that the national trend shows him with approval generally in the high 40s/low 50s, then?

Sizable concentration of supporters in some states, e.g. IL, NY?