Martin Co. KY 1996 (backwards?)
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  Martin Co. KY 1996 (backwards?)
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Author Topic: Martin Co. KY 1996 (backwards?)  (Read 3794 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« on: January 15, 2009, 07:25:41 PM »

How did Clinton manage to win this one by such a big margin?

Look at how Republican this county is in all the other years, and you'll see what I mean.

Just as I think Knott County was backwards in 2008, I think Martin County was backwards in 1996.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2009, 07:30:26 PM »

The GOP took a break from cheating man.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2009, 07:42:36 PM »

The GOP took a break from cheating man.

Pooing is cool.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2009, 07:46:51 PM »

Just as I think Knott County was backwards in 2008, I think Martin County was backwards in 1996.

Dude I called the county, and unless they transposed all of the precincts (virtually impossible) it's not backwards.  Not only that, but the swing was comparable to surrounding counties.  Don't be ridiculous.

Martin County was only GOP +6% in 1992, and then GOP +21% in 2000.  So, it swung 11 points Democratic and then 26 points Republcian.

I'll concede that a GOP +5% result would look a little more normal than a DEM +5% one.  But DEM +5% is not really unreasonable in '96.  And Kentucky is a state that is very good about not flipping numbers because of the way they report their results.

You're being a little too apt to jump on this assumption, methinks.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2009, 10:42:11 PM »

The only unusual thing about Martin County, KY in 1996 was that it gave more votes to Perot than it did in 1992.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2009, 07:50:02 AM »
« Edited: April 04, 2009, 06:31:59 PM by pbrower2a »

Martin County, KY is one of the poorest counties in America (whether by percentage of people in poverty -- 42%, one of the ten worst; or in median income -- one of the 35 lowest) and it is very white. That county voted for McCain, 76.5%-21.9%.  It used to be that poor whites were a reliable constituency for Democrats. Such was clearly not the case in 2008. (Check the New York Times' [url http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/explorer.html|Electoral Explorer[/url]. It's just amazing!)

Obama did well among poor non-whites everywhere, but poor whites utterly rejected him in surprising numbers.  An illustration: Wilcox Co., Alabama, is the poorest county with a black majority, and it voted 71-29 for Obama. That's roughly the racial split, and that county has the 27th-highest poverty rate in the United States. I doubt that white people make high incomes in Wilcox County, Alabama.

Obama, I believe, did a very poor job of addressing structural, long-term poverty in America in 2008. He seems to have assumed that poor non-white people would vote for him (which they did) but seemed to ignore that white people could also be poor. To be sure, he won votes from people who feared going poor due to economic collapses, but for the long-term poor in America, such failures are irrelevant.

Long-term, structural poverty has become a third rail of American politics, something to be avoided because most of us don't want to think about it. Can Obama do something about it, such as raising consciences about it? One thing is certain: he can do nothing good  for poor blacks without doing similar  good for poor white people.

If in 2012, Obama is able to address structural poverty without offending the middle class, he wins in a Reagan-style landslide in 2012. That is a huge "if".
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nclib
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« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2009, 09:28:48 AM »
« Edited: April 04, 2009, 01:04:51 PM by nclib »

I don't think it's so much a question of Obama's appeal (or lack thereof) to poor whites, or that being a poor white increases the likelihood of voting Republican, but rather that some sociological characteristics correlated with poor whites (i.e. lack of education, lack of exposure to cultural diversity, rural) are also correlated with voting Republican. Although some of those factors can also be correlated with poor minorities, minorities have also other cultural factors that lead that lead them to vote Democratic.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2009, 12:34:56 PM »


If in 2012, Obama is able to address structural poverty without offending the middle class
That is how you offend the middle class.

Can you do a hole-in-one without teeing-off?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2009, 06:49:29 PM »

Martin County, KY is one of the poorest counties in America (whether by percentage of people in poverty -- 42%, one of the ten worst; or in median income -- one of the 35 lowest) and it is very white. That county voted for McCain, 76.5%-21.9%.  It used to be that poor whites were a reliable constituency for Democrats.

Martin is historically a Republican stronghold.
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