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pbrower2a
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« Reply #25 on: February 11, 2009, 12:59:39 PM »

Advice: the 2008 election was about right as a level of support. Obama needs more gains in the House and Senate than any huge gains in electoral votes.  Hold tight to the Democratic core of Gore2000 + NH and pick off one of Ohio and Florida or two of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. If he is generally effective with a stable economy and peace he can pay attention to governing instead of campaigning. Indiana? You can't win it without winning Ohio, which clinches the election anyway. North Carolina? You can't win it without winning one of either Virginia or Florida, the first nearly clinching the election (with Nevada or Montana) and the second clinching it. That's before I even discuss the more arcane possibilities like Georgia, South Carolina, or Texas.

If there is an electoral blowout (400+ electoral points), then absolutely do not let it go to your head. Attribute any landslide not as an affirmation of greatness but instead to the failure of the other side to have an effective opponent. John McCain may have been the strongest GOP presidential nominee since Ronald Reagan.

In the last 65 years the second terms of all Presidents to win re-election as incumbents in landslides have been less than stellar. Getting elected President is remarkable. Getting re-elected is amazing. Having an effective second term -- that will be miraculous.

Note well that during your second term, the GOP will have been developing new leaders and tuning up new talking points. The stale personalities and agendas that brought the GOP down to a level that you could beat will be no more. Some will be dynamic; some will even adopt your electoral techniques (while damning your agenda). Maybe they will try to find out what people really want in such states as Connecticut, Wisconsin, and Oregon as you did in Colorado, Indiana, and Virginia. There will be Democratic politicians who prove vulnerable because they are in over their heads, and being a Democrat of "average" abilities in a district described as "R+4" (that's about what Indiana and North Carolina were in 2008) just won't be enough. That happens; that is the political cycle. 


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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #26 on: February 11, 2009, 04:53:33 PM »

Run on economic issues.  Try to avoid talking about social issues like gays, abortion, etc.  Continue to make inroads with hispanics, and focus on the West.  Don't abandon the South; the right combination of candidates and issues can still swing a large part of Dixie.

No. For the first time in American history (outside of an out-and-out landslide), a Democratic President has been elected who would have won even if he had not carried a single former Confederate state (Obama). We no longer have any need of the South, and ought instead continue pushing, and pushing hard, on the West. In twenty years we must have a total stranglehold on the coastal East, New England, the Mountain West, and California; the GOP must be confined to its bastions in the Mormon Belt and the Confederacy.

The Democratic Party can continue to gain in the West, without having to abandon the South.
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