Most liberal/most conservative states
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Most liberal/most conservative states
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Author Topic: Most liberal/most conservative states  (Read 7031 times)
Alcon
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« on: January 10, 2009, 09:13:24 PM »

Not enough data: Utah, D.C.
Based on self-identification on 2008 exit polls

States with most liberal Obama voters
1. Massachusetts - 46.6%
2. New York - 45.8%
3. Minnesota - 44.3%
4. Washington - 44.1%
5. Vermont - 44.0%
6. Connecticut - 42.7%
7. New Hampshire - 42.2%
8. Maine - 41.3%
9. Rhode Island - 40.4%
10. Oregon - 40.1%
...
40. West Virginia - 30.2%
41. North Dakota - 29.9%
42. Texas - 29.8%
43. Kentucky - 29.8%
44. Mississippi - 29.1%
45. Arkansas - 27.2%
46. South Dakota - 27.0%
47. Alabama - 25.1%
48. Wyoming - 24.1%
49. Georgia - 23.5%

States with most conservative McCain voters
1. Mississippi - 66.9%
2. Oregon - 66.8%
3. Washington - 65.3%
4. Texas - 65.0%
5. Idaho - 64.4%
6. Tennessee - 64.1%
7. Arkansas - 63.0%
8. Alabama - 63.0%
9. South Carolina - 62.5%
10. Colorado - 62.4%
...
40. New Hampshire - 52.9%
41. Delaware - 52.4%
42. Vermont - 52.1%
43. Hawai'i - 51.8%
44. Rhode Island - 51.2%
45. Pennsylvania - 48.6%
46. Maine - 47.8%
47. Maryland - 46.0%
48. New Jersey - 45.9%
49. Massachusetts - 42.3%

Polarization index
1. Washington - 1.09
2. Oregon - 1.07
3. New York - 1.03
4. Idaho - 1.02
5. Tennessee - 1.01
6. Minnesota - 1.01
7. Montana - 0.98
8. Michigan - 0.97
9. California - 0.97
10. Vermont - 0.96
...
40. Pennsylvania - 0.87
41. Kentucky - 0.86
42. Nebraska - 0.85
43. New Jersey - 0.85
44. North Dakota - 0.85
45. West Virginia - 0.84
46. Maryland - 0.84
47. Georgia - 0.82
48. South Dakota - 0.81
49. Wyoming - 0.78
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2009, 11:39:28 PM »

Interesting. How do you calculate the polarization index?
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2009, 01:00:23 AM »

Interesting. How do you calculate the polarization index?

I added the two together, kind of a lame way but the best I could think of.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2009, 01:36:10 AM »

lol NW
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2009, 07:21:21 AM »

This is (self-identified liberal and voting Obama)/voting Obama, and the respective Con table, right?
How does the ranking change if you use (self-identified liberal and voting Obama)/total voting, and the respective Con table, instead?
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Alcon
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2009, 01:30:54 PM »

This is (self-identified liberal and voting Obama)/voting Obama, and the respective Con table, right?
How does the ranking change if you use (self-identified liberal and voting Obama)/total voting, and the respective Con table, instead?

State composition:

Liberal Obama voters
1. Vermont - 30.1%
2. Massachusetts - 28.8%
3. New York - 28.5%
4. Connecticut - 26.1%
5. Hawai'i - 25.5%
6. Washington - 25.1%
7. Rhode Island - 24.9%
8. Minnesota - 23.9%
9. New Hampshire - 23.7%
10. Maryland - 23.7%
...
40. Kentucky - 12.6%
41. Mississippi - 12.3%
42. Louisiana - 12.3%
43. Indiana - 12.2%
44. Alaska - 12.2%
45. South Dakota - 12.0%
46. Georgia - 11.1%
47. Wyoming - 10.8%
48. Arkansas - 10.6%
49. Alabama - 9.2%

Conservative McCain voters
1. Idaho - 40.0%
2. Alabama - 39.0%
3. Mississippi - 38.2%
4. Arkansas - 36.9%
5. Tennessee - 36.1%
6. Texas - 35.9%
7. Oklahoma - 35.5%
8. Wyoming - 35.1%
9. South Carolina - 34.4%
10. Kansas - 33.8%
...
40. Maine - 21.2%
41. New York - 20.5%
42. New Jersey - 19.8%
43. Delaware - 19.4%
44. Connecticut - 18.9%
45. Rhode Island - 18.3%
46. Maryland - 17.0%
47. Vermont - 15.6%
48. Massachusetts - 14.7%
49. Hawai'i - 13.7%

Liberal McCain voters
1. West Virginia - 5.0%
2. Arizona - 5.0%
3. Kentucky - 4.4%
4. Nebraska - 3.6%
5. Mississippi - 3.5%
6. Ohio - 3.2%
7. Wyoming - 3.1%
8. Oklahoma - 3.0%
9. Louisiana - 3.0%
10. North Dakota - 3.0%
...
40. Hawai'i - 1.7%
41. Montana - 1.7%
42. Washington - 1.6%
43. Vermont - 1.6%
44. Illinois - 1.5%
45. Florida - 1.5%
46. Delaware - 1.2%
47. Iowa - 1.1%
48. Colorado - 1.0%
49. Oregon - 1.0%

Conservative Obama voters
1. Mississippi - 10.8%
2. New Mexico - 9.9%
3. Hawai'i - 9.8%
4. Texas - 9.7%
5. Illinois - 8.7%
6. Georgia - 8.2%
7. Vermont - 7.9%
8. Iowa - 7.8%
9. Ohio - 7.7%
10. Louisiana - 7.6%
...
40. Nebraska - 4.7%
41. Indiana - 4.6%
42. Alaska - 4.6%
43. New York - 4.5%
44. Minnesota - 4.5%
45. Kansas - 4.2%
46. Oklahoma - 3.5%
47. Montana - 3.4%
48. Wyoming - 3.1%
49. Idaho - 2.6%

Overall "ideological crossover"
1. Mississippi - 14.3%
2. New Mexico - 11.6%
3. Hawai'i - 11.5%
4. Texas - 11.5%
5. Arizona - 11.2%
6. Ohio - 10.9%
7. Louisiana - 10.6%
8. Kentucky - 10.6%
9. Illinois - 10.2%
10. West Virginia - 10.1%
...
40. New Hampshire - 6.8%
41. Washington - 6.7%
42. New York - 6.7%
43. Oklahoma - 6.6%
44. Minnesota - 6.3%
45. Kansas - 6.3%
46. Wyoming - 6.2%
47. Oregon - 5.9%
48. Idaho - 5.5%
49. Montana - 5.1%

Overall "ideological faithful" (liberal Obama + conservative McCain + boring)
1. Idaho - 53.1%
2. Washington - 51.4%
3. Tennessee - 51.2%
4. Mississippi - 50.5%
5. Oregon - 49.6%
6. New York - 49.0%
7. Minnesota - 48.8%
8. Texas - 48.8%
9. South Carolina - 48.7%
10. Montana - 48.5%
...
40. North Dakota - 42.8%
41. Pennsylvania - 42.3%
42. Georgia - 41.9%
43. Illinois - 41.5%
44. New Jersey - 41.5%
45. West Virginia - 41.3%
46. Delaware - 41.3%
47. South Dakota - 40.7%
48. Maryland - 40.7%
49. Hawai'i - 39.2%

Liberal Obama minus Conservative McCain
1. Vermont: +14.5%
2. Massachusetts: +14.1%
3. Hawai'i: +11.8%
4. New York: +8.0%
5. Connecticut: +7.2%
6. Rhode Island: +6.7%
7. Maryland: +6.6%
8. Delaware: +2.4%
9. Maine: +2.1%
10. New Jersey: +2.0%
11. New Hampshire: +0.7%
12. California: +0.6%
...
39. Indiana: -20.2%
40. Kansas: -20.5%
41. Tennessee: -21.0%
42. Louisiana: -21.3%
43. Oklahoma: -22.5%
44. Texas: -23.0%
45. Wyoming: -24.3%
46. Mississippi: -25.9%
47. Arkansas: -26.3%
48. Idaho: -26.9%
49. Alabama: -29.8%

Conservative Obama minus liberal McCain
1. Hawai'i: +8.2%
2. New Mexico: +8.1%
3. Texas: +7.9%
4. Mississippi: +7.3%
5. Illinois: +7.2%
6. Iowa: +6.6%
7. Georgia: +6.4%
8. Vermont: +6.3%
9. Florida: +5.8%
10. Delaware: +5.6%
...
40. Alaska: +2.2%
41. Kansas: +2.1%
42. Montana: +1.7%
43. Kentucky: +1.4%
44. Nebraska: +1.1%
45. Arizona: +1.1%
46. Oklahoma: +0.5%
47. West Virginia: +0.1%
48. Wyoming: +0.0%
49. Idaho: -0.3%

Make of that all what you will...
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2009, 01:47:57 PM »

What would a map look like of these stats?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2009, 03:37:03 AM »

So , Obama did better among Mississippi  conservatives than among New York conservatives. That's a bit odd, but I guess it's got to do with blacks.
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nclib
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2009, 11:23:41 AM »

So , Obama did better among Mississippi  conservatives than among New York conservatives. That's a bit odd, but I guess it's got to do with blacks.

I think that table measures what % of all voters in each state are conservative/Obama, etc. So this could mean that Miss. has far more conservatives overall.
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2009, 12:41:38 PM »

Of course this doesn't make any sense. What is "Conservative" or "Liberal"?
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Alcon
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2009, 12:53:42 PM »

Gustaf + AngryWeasel,

This is a table of self-identification from the 2008 exit polls.

The tables are:

Post 1 (out of the supporters of a given candidate)
1. Percentage of Obama voters in every state that identify as "liberal."
2. Percentage of McCain voters in every state that identify as "conservative."
3. Those two numbers added together.

Post 2 (out of all voters)
1. Percentage of voters who both identify as "liberal" and voted Obama.
2. Percentage of voters who both identify as "conservative" and voted McCain.
3. Percentage of voters who both identify as "liberal" and voted McCain.
4. Percentage of voters who both identify as "conservative" and voted Obama.
5. Percentage of voters who are either liberal McCain voters or conservative Obama voters.
6. Percentage of voters who are either liberal Obama voters or conservative McCain voters.
7. Percentage of conservative Obama voters minus percentage of liberal McCain voters.

Hope that clears things up Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2009, 01:07:37 PM »

Polarization index
1. Washington - 1.09
2. Oregon - 1.07
3. New York - 1.03
4. Idaho - 1.02
5. Tennessee - 1.01
6. Minnesota - 1.01
7. Montana - 0.98
8. Michigan - 0.97
9. California - 0.97
10. Vermont - 0.96
...
40. Pennsylvania - 0.87
41. Kentucky - 0.86
42. Nebraska - 0.85
43. New Jersey - 0.85
44. North Dakota - 0.85
45. West Virginia - 0.84
46. Maryland - 0.84
47. Georgia - 0.82
48. South Dakota - 0.81
49. Wyoming - 0.78
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Hmmm. Big overlap in the top list. Bottom list, not so much.
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« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2009, 02:57:40 AM »

I sometimes wonder how weird it must be for Minnesota centrists.
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