The British Conservative Party
Tory:
It seems there is a lot of interest in my party from other forum members, most of whom are inquiring as to what it's current state is, and whether or not it is still conservative. Many American conservatives are familiar with the Tories(nickname of party members) through Margaret Thatcher. While in the past the Republicans and Tories have been natural allies, things have changed dramatically since the eighties. Many Republicans have become very keen on Tony Blair and are now taking up the banner of the Labour Party, the Conservative's main rivals.
Well here are my thoughts:
The Conservative Party is currently rebuilding itself after a few years in the wilderness. In the very early nineties Thatcher's popularity began to slide. Britain was going into a recession at the same time as the United States, except here it was slightly worse. The reasons it was worse are numerous. Northern England, Wales, and Scotland, mainly industrial areas, had a very rough time adapting to Britain's new service based economy. The southeast of England benefited greatly from the Thatcher years(especially London). It culminated in the very unpopular poll tax, which started riots and marked the end of the line for the Iron Lady. She resigned, giving the post of PM over to the more moderate john Major. During the eighties Labour had moved into extremely socialist territory, alienating most middle and upper class voters who had become captivated by the Thatcher dream. Labour had started to reform itself in the very late eighties. This new face on the party was lead by Gordon Brown and a relative newcomer, the young and charismatic Tony Blair. This reform hadn't moved quickly enough though. John Major won a rather large victory in the 1992 general election, surprising many. The culture in Britain then started to change. A new movement, dubbed Cool Britannia, became prevalent. It was a sort of left-wing, youth oriented nationalism. British music, movies, and fashion became very hip. Some say this is when Britain became Great Britain again. Brits became proud of who they were. John Major led Britain out of it's recession and the nation began to prosper. The nation was doing very well, and Major did a fine job as prime minister. He could not, however, stop Cool Britannia. After the 1992 election Tony Blair became the leader of the Labour Party. He was young and charming and represented this new British youth movement. Blair was also quite a bit more right-wing than the average Labourite. He renamed the party "New Labour", taking the party into a "third-way" style position. He moved the party out of the extreme-left column. Blair basically became the PM in waiting two years before the 1997 election even took place. Major knew his days were numbered. His office started packing days before the election. Major was already moved out of 10 Downing on election day. Blair won in the biggest landslide of the 20th century. It was humiliating and demoralising. The Conservatives pretty much ceased to be a factor in politics. At this time the Liberal Democrats, a mixture of the old Liberal Party of Britain and moderate Labourites who broke away during the eighties, became a semi-major party. They played both sides, claiming to be moderate, while actually not having positions on anything. They move to whatever position will get them the most votes in the closest election. They stole, and yes stole by misleading people, votes away from the Conservatives. Blair's new policies were met with mixed reviews by the left of the party. He was decidedly authoritarian. John Major resigned from his post, handing over the leadership to William Hague. The Conservative Party tried desperately to regain some sort of identity. Hague was weak, however, and the party was dangerously split over Europe. Very liberal Tories tried to move the party to where it was basically indistiguishable from New Labour. Ultra-Conservatives tried to move the party further right than it was in the early nineties. These two groups represented only a very small percentage of Tories and alientated members and potential voters. The 2001 election brought Tories back together. Hague led us into another defeat by a large margin, however it was much less of a failure. Hague's leadership then went to Iain Duncan Smith. Smith, although critised by many, played a pivotal role in healing the party. He basically quelled the problems the party had over Europe and roped the extreme left and right of the party back into the mainstream. Then President George Bush began his war on terror. Blair became his closest ally. When Bush turned his focus on Iraq, Blair followed suit. This caused a firestorm in Britain. The Lib Dems immediately moved to the left of Labour to capitalise on this new sense of abandonment by the left of the Labour Party. They turned themselves into the anti-war party. Blair no longer looked invincible. He became unpopular. Iain Duncan Smith failed to capitalise on this and his leadership was challenged. Michael Howard was voted in to replace him. Howard is a traditional Tory, somewhere between Thatcher and Major. He has a strange ability to connect with people and has become very popular recently, especially in places the Tories need to win back or hold in the next election. He will bring the party back. In the 2004 European elections a brief crisis came about when a significant amount of the Tory vote was going to go to the UKIP, a small isolationist party. A major crises was avoided, and the Tories did well in those elections. In the council elections the same year the Tories did very well, and Labour was trounced by the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. That leads us to this moment.
Current state of the party and outlook:
The 2005 election will be pretty interesting. The Lib Dems will get a large number of protest votes. The Tories will do much better. Because of the way the electoral system is set up in Britain, extremely biased toward Labour, the Conservatives will not regain a majority for at least a decade. We can become a power again though, and that is what this election is really about. Blair will probably not carry on with the next term he wins, instead giving the reins over to Gordon Brown, an ''old'' Labour Scot. If Brown decides to pursue a more left-wing economic policy, more middle class voters will come back to the Conservatives. The real factor here will be the Lib Dems. Thier future is very uncertain. They could become on even ground with the Tories(fat chance), or wither away until they become a 5-10% party. I am hoping for the latter.
So that's it!
Filuwaúrdjan:
Couple of points:
1. The recession and mass unemployment of the '80's was the fault of the Thatcher Regime (er... Government... yes... government...), mass unemployment was actually deliberate in an attempt to control inflation (this attempt failed).
Thatcher also devastated the mining communities by [rants like this for hours on end]
2. I dispute that any national trends can be taken from Council Elections... while it's true that Labour lost control of a lot of councils with large middle class populations, they gained control of a lot with large working class populations (notably in South Wales and the Potteries).
The BBC's national popular vote thingy was total and utter bullsh**t.
Do you know how they came to that figure? By adding up the results in a couple of hundred wards and assuming all other wards voted the same way...
The fact that even after the council elections, Labour held the most councillers in the councils that had held elections was hardly mentioned in the media.
3. The LibDems are not to the Left of Labour, except on certain social issues.
They've swung to the right big time recently (they want to displace you guys by the looks of things) but the media has hardly noticed this.
Slightly raising taxes so you can slash and burn Government Departments while divirting money from the NHS to Pensioners isn't exactly left wing...
4. While Ken Clarke did a good job at Number 11 (mostly by reverting to the Keynsian economic policies of the Callaghan Government. Seriously. The media never noticed this either...), the reason why the Major government was hated was because of the botched privatisations... and the numerous corruption scandels and government leaks.
5. Most opinion polls that are worth at least the ink used to print them with if not the paper (note to Americans: our polling industry is truely dire. It's also pretty much the only industry in the U.K to be completely unregulated. Go figure...) don't show Howard "connecting with people"... he's fairly popular with a certain sort of suburban voter, but he lacks a broader appeal.
You guys should have chosen Clarke in '97 or '01... I'm pleased you didn't though :)
6. I don't think that the Tories will die... but if the LibDems "decapitation" strategy (on the hitlist: Howard, May, Letwin, Davis... and most of the rest of the Shadow Cabinet from what I hear. Methinks the plan might be a wee bit ambitious...) works next year, they'll be like headless chickens for a few years.
afleitch:
If the Lib Dems claim a few shadow cabinet scalps next year, then its back to the Lords for the Tories in order to find anyone of substance....like-a-bility is another matter. The problem with the Tories is that when they take a beating in a by-election or a series of polls they lurch instinctively to the right instead of sticking their ground in the centre. As a swing voter myself, I applauded Howards leadership at first, but now he's lurching to the right. There's something of the right about him;)
nomorelies:
Boris Johnson needs to be picked to be the leader of the Conservative party before it dies.
Tory:
Quote from: nomorelies on September 27, 2004, 09:17:26 AM
Boris Johnson needs to be picked to be the leader of the Conservative party before it dies.
I agree :)
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