Voinovich to announce retirement? Yes.

[Holmes]

conference call this sunday PM w/ big donors where voinovich is expected to announce his decision either way.......

Ah, I dount he'll announce retirement while inviting big donors...

[BM]

Yeah, that doesn't sound good. For people who want him to retire, that is (like me).

[Holmes]

I dunno, what if he says "I'm retiring so don't give me your monies"?

[JSojourner]

Bunning is finished. If he retires we still get his seat. One
Burr has no chance. Two.
We pick up the open seat in Florida. Three.
We pick up the open seat in Missouri. Four.
We pick up the open seat in Ohio. Five.
Specter will retire. Six.
Sebelius gets us Kansas. Seven.
McCain retires and we get his seat. Eight.
Vitter loses because he is a sexual deviant. Nine.
We boot off Judd Gregg. Ten.
Grassley retires and we get that open seat. Eleven.

According to my calculations, we net 11 seats in 2010 bringing our grand total to 70

You serious?  Okay...

Burr has every chance of being re-elected.  What or who is to stop him?  Is Mike Easley gonna run for the seat?  Or Heath Shuler? 

Missouri is hardly a sure thing for a Democrat.  I realize a dead man beat John Ashcroft, but it was John Ashcroft.  Suppose Jim Talent sought the seat?  Again, who opposes him?  I think Dick Gephardt is done (and couldn't win statewide anyway) and Ike Skelton is getting awfully old. 

While I think a Sebelius win in Kansas is likely, I wouldn't say it's certain.

McCain won't retire unless his health fails.  He wants one more term.

Vitter is vulnerable but remember -- the conservative Republican who sins tends to get cut a lot more slack than the liberal Democrat.   At least in the Bible belt.  Serial adulterers like Bob Barr would never have been defeated but for redistricting.  And Newt's downfall had to do with ethical sanctions, not his repeat infidelity.  So why should Vitter lose Republican support? 

Judd Gregg is NOT going to lose re-election.  Not even to Governor Lynch, our best potential candidate to unseat him.

Grassley has said he's not retiring, right?  If he runs, he wins.

So I surely agree we are going to pick up some seats.  But two or three.  Not 11.  Yikes. 

[Holmes]

Burr has every chance of being re-elected.  What or who is to stop him?  Is Mike Easley gonna run for the seat?  Or Heath Shuler? 

Roy Cooper?

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Robin Carnahan?

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Rule of thumb in Louisiana is that they generally elect conservative Democrats, not Republicans for Senate.

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Disagree with this but I don't think he'll run.

Yeah, 11 seats is like... a huge upset, even for Democrats right now.

[Lunar]

The word on the street is that Voinovich is incredibly likely to retire.


I'd bet money on it.


Portman will be the GOP's canddate, which is weird for me because I thought (and still do) that Portman was McCain's best VP prospect

[Padfoot]

I am hearing now from inside GOP sources (aka who my roommate works for a Republican Congressman) that Voinovich is not going to run for re-election.  Portman is looking like the probably nominee although I've heard recent stirrings that State Auditor Mary Taylor is also interested.  Portman would certainly lock up the Southwest GOP base but I don't think he'd do well statewide considering his strong ties to the Bush administration.  Taylor, on the other hand, was the only GOP candidate to win statewide in 2006, a bad year for Republicans nationally and in Ohio especially.  The only problem there is that the State Auditor is on the redistricting board and it would be much easier to re-elect Mary Taylor than it would be to defeat a Strickland appointee.

On the Democratic side, Rep Tim Ryan and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher have been rumored candidates for some time but I'm now hearing that veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur may throw her hat in the ring as well as Rep. Zach Space.  Fisher is a terrible candidate IMO as he's done virtually nothing since being elected.  He's too closely tied with Strickland whose popularity is starting to wane.  Ryan is the political opposite of Portman but his base would be larger resulting in a likely win.  If the Kaptur rumors are true I'd expect the rest of the Dems to clear out for her and she'd probably win the general.  Space could certainly win the general but I think he'd get beaten by Ryan or Kaptur in primary.  Plus, the Democrats would likely lose his district if he leaves the seat open.

[Lunar]

I'm glad we're hearing the same things about Voinovich.  He was moderate, but the open seat is prime pick-up opportunity.  Portman has an almost clear field (thus far), but that doesn't mean he'd be favored.  He's known in Ohioan political circles, but he's basically unknown statewide and I see Ohio as a state that unlikely to backlash against Obama's spending plans, y'know? 

Frankly, I'm done with Serbian-Americans after the Blagojevich scandal, let's just get rid of all of their influences on mainstream America!

[Holmes]

Political Serbian genocide?

Wasn't Portman the manager of the budget under Bush? I wonder how well that worked out.

[BM]

US Senator George Voinovich (R) is reportedly reconsidering his previously announced plan to seek re-election in 2010. In fact, his office released a rather ambiguous statement on Friday: "For over 40 years, Sen. Voinovich has demonstrated a passion for public service. He is thinking about the challenging situation in his beloved Buckeye State and the direction of the country as well as what is best for his family. If he changes his mind about running, he will share that decision quickly with the people of Ohio ...."

[Josh/Devilman88]

I just know one thing, as of right now. If Roy Cooper runs for Senate, Sen. Burr will not win re-election.

[Keystone Phil]

I just know one thing, as of right now. If Roy Cooper runs for Senate, Sen. Burr will not win re-election.

This is getting annoying now. It's spam. This thread is about Voinivich. We get the point that you think Cooper will beat Burr. Great.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Political Serbian genocide?

Wasn't Portman the manager of the budget under Bush? I wonder how well that worked out.

Probably doesn't matter but it was only for a year and half. That didn't hurt Mitch Daniels from being elected and reelected Governor of Indiana.

Portman won't have easy time but I think he will do better then Voinovich. Voinovich is a spent force his favorable are tied and in  in the 30's. Thats not a good sign for someone who's been around since the 80's as a statewide figure. His attempt rally support for the Auto Bailout succeded in only attaching his name to a piece of legislation that never even went to a vote. If one of the big three were to collapse so would his numbers.  Portman may have obstacles like being from a smaller part of the state and being tied to Bush. I think he can over come them and beat Ryan or who ever runs. For now I'll rate this as a tossup-tilt Dem at least till Voinovich offically retires and both Portman and Ryan enter the race.

[Holmes]

Political Serbian genocide?

Wasn't Portman the manager of the budget under Bush? I wonder how well that worked out.

Probably doesn't matter but it was only for a year and half. That didn't hurt Mitch Daniels from being elected and reelected Governor of Indiana.

You're most likely right, if all his opponents can throw is a job which he'd have had 3 or 4 years ago by then, then they really need to find more dirt. And maybe Bush won't even be such a dirty word by then anyway.

[TheresNoMoney]

Judd Gregg is NOT going to lose re-election.  Not even to Governor Lynch, our best potential candidate to unseat him.

John Lynch would almost definitely beat Judd Gregg. Bear in mind, I'm pretty sure that Lynch won't run for Senate but he would win if he did.

Judd Gregg is vulnerable and can definitely be beaten. He is not as vulnerable as John Sununu, but it will be a close race either way.

[Lunar]

I just know one thing, as of right now. If Roy Cooper runs for Senate, Sen. Burr will not win re-election.

I like the transition

[Keystone Phil]

I just know one thing, as of right now. If Roy Cooper runs for Senate, Sen. Burr will not win re-election.

I like the transition

"Your honor, we, the jury, do not know if the defendant is guilty but we do know that if Roy Cooper runs for the U.S. Senate..."

[Josh/Devilman88]

I just know one thing, as of right now. If Roy Cooper runs for Senate, Sen. Burr will not win re-election.

This is getting annoying now. It's spam. This thread is about Voinivich. We get the point that you think Cooper will beat Burr. Great.

Other people in this thread were talking about Democratic pick-ups in 2010. I was just stating what I thought.

[JSojourner]

Judd Gregg is NOT going to lose re-election.  Not even to Governor Lynch, our best potential candidate to unseat him.

John Lynch would almost definitely beat Judd Gregg. Bear in mind, I'm pretty sure that Lynch won't run for Senate but he would win if he did.

Judd Gregg is vulnerable and can definitely be beaten. He is not as vulnerable as John Sununu, but it will be a close race either way.

I know some recent polling shows Hodes leading Gregg 47 to 40.  But I haven't seen any numbers with Lynch.  In our favor is that New Hampshire is trending Democratic and joining the rest of New England.  However, I am always reluctant to consider a sitting Senator with no record of scandal and a very astute policy mind "vulnerable".  At least two years out.  The Hodes numbers could be a reflection of general, post-election enthusiasm for all things Democratic.  That will probably wear off between now and 2010, though I hope not.

Still, as Republicans go, I really like Gregg.  (I liked Sununu, too.)  Tremendous improvement over that loon, Bob Smith.

[TheresNoMoney]

I know some recent polling shows Hodes leading Gregg 47 to 40. 

It was actually just the opposite, Gregg leading Hodes 47% to 40%. New Hampshire as a state is about D+3 or +4 and Gregg is not widely known (besides his last name) or widely liked (lukewarm favorable ratings at best).

If Gregg chooses to oppose everything Obama does the next two years, he will be ripe for the picking in 2010.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I know some recent polling shows Hodes leading Gregg 47 to 40. 

It was actually just the opposite, Gregg leading Hodes 47% to 40%. New Hampshire as a state is about D+3 or +4 and Gregg is not widely known (besides his last name) or widely liked (lukewarm favorable ratings at best).

If Gregg chooses to oppose everything Obama does the next two years, he will be ripe for the picking in 2010.

And how do you know that Obama will be popular in two years?  The country is rocketing into the gutter, and fast.  What if the unemployment situation stagnates for the next two years, a very possible scenario?  Why would people get excited about getting two more years of that?

PS: How can a former Governor not be "widely known?"  I mean, come on.

[Lunar]

Indeed, he was governor and then will have been Senator for 18 years by the time 2010 comes around.  In a small state, no less.  And he was a representative for another 8 years.  And his Dad was governor

[Keystone Phil]

I know some recent polling shows Hodes leading Gregg 47 to 40. 

It was actually just the opposite, Gregg leading Hodes 47% to 40%. New Hampshire as a state is about D+3 or +4 and Gregg is not widely known (besides his last name) or widely liked (lukewarm favorable ratings at best).

If Gregg chooses to oppose everything Obama does the next two years, he will be ripe for the picking in 2010.

And how do you know that Obama will be popular in two years? 

Oh, you're not familiar with how it works?

All of their assumptions are possible or likely while anything that benefits the GOP in the slightest bit is laughed off as impossible.

The best part of Scoonie's post is how he says Gregg is not well known besides his last name. Uh...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The only time I have ever seen Gregg get higly partisan is when it comes to the budget. Even thats rare. Didn't he form a bipartisan committee with Kent Conrad to come up with solutions to Health Care, Social Sec insolvency, and entitlement reform. So any Health Care reform that Obama tried to pass would have to have Gregg's support. From what I heard Obama doesn't want to wait like Clinton did on Health Care. Thats not exactly a bad position to be agreeing with Obama on especially in NH.

[Brittain33]

PS: How can a former Governor not be "widely known?"  I mean, come on.

It will have been nearly 20 years since he was governor. New Hampshire has seen a lot of migration and natural turnover since then, especially since people in their 20s and younger usually don't know who their governors are.

As an example, Chuck Robb was an extraordinarily popular governor of Virginia in 1988 who scared the Republican senator into retirement; by 2000 he was a relic whose state had changed dramatically and where he no longer commanded the same respect.