minnesota?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I'd call it a democratic battleground state and if not a toss up.

Obama won it by ten points and it has voted Republican for President once since 1956.  Don't get your hopes up.

And? The margins were close in 2000 and 2004 and the state has been trending GOP on the national level.

[Ebowed]

Massachusetts is "trending" Republican if recent elections are any indication.  Unless the demographics of Minnesota are changing in some way to noticeably alter the make-up of the electorate, I'm not sure what argument you would have that Minnesota is suddenly going to go GOP at the national level.

Obama won it by ten points and it has voted Republican for President once since 1956.  Don't get your hopes up.

1972?

Yes, that is the one election since 1956 where it voted GOP...  ?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Massachusetts is "trending" Republican if recent elections are any indication.  Unless the demographics of Minnesota are changing in some way to noticeably alter the make-up of the electorate, I'm not sure what argument you would have that Minnesota is suddenly going to go GOP at the national level.

And? Do you think the electoral map will remain static forever?

Did you forget that Minnesota and Massachusetts both were once Republican strongholds?

[segwaystyle2012]

Minnesota will not go GOP in a normal year and it's best for Republicans to put their resources elsewhere.

[Smash255]

Yes Minnesota has been trending to the right since the 80's. Clinton's margins of victory wasn't much bigger than Dukakis's. Bush almost won that state both times. I'd call it a democratic battleground state and if not a toss up.

Minnesota was closer to the national average in 2000 than it was in 2008...

Now, I will agree the state is more Republican than it was in the 80's, and did trend Republican.  However, the idea that the state is still trending Republican is flat out false.  In fact when looking at Minnesota and comparing its results to the national average, the state has not trended Republican in consecutive elections since 84-88 and 88-92 (and 84 had Mondale).  Taking out the home state factor with Mondale in 84, and taking a look at the last several election cycles compared to the national average.

88-92 Republican
92-96 Democratic
96-00 Republican
00-04 Democratic
04-08 Republican


That isn't exactly much of a Republican trend.....

[Husker]

It's very interesting how small towns vary in different states...
I live in rural Indiana, in a town of about 1,200. We voted for McCain 87-9%.  Chuck Norris actually received 1% of the vote here. Being a Democrat is just about as bad as killing someone, and people who had Obama signs in their yard were likely to be egged. It just baffles me how Minnesota's, which isn't too far away from Indiana, rural areas are liberal.

Wow, that makes a lot of small towns in eastern NE look downright liberal! In our more populated counties toward the Missouri River, Obama generally got between 1/4 and 1/3 of the vote in the small towns and actually won a few of them.

I wouldn't classify rural Minnesota as liberal per se, but the DFL did dominate much of rural western and northern MN for many years and old habits do die hard. A moderate leaning democrat who is relatively pro-life will still outperform a conservative republican there but I'm guessing Al Franken didn't set well with a lot of rural MN voters.

Minnesota has not had a noticeable trend toward republicans compared with the rest of the U.S. but compared to the rest of the Midwest, it kind of has. Illinois is now more democratic (thanks to Chicago) and you could argue that Wisconsin is too. This was definitely not the case 30-40 years ago. Depending on the year Iowa will be close to Minnesota but Iowa will swing democratic and republican more on farm issues than anything else.

[Derek]

Minnesota along with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Oregon have been teasers for Republicans in the past 2 decades. Every election money is spent there and every election the Republicans are close but don't win. Obama won big in these states, but let's remember the margin he won by overall. Pawlenty would have a great chance at the state though.

[Husker]

Minnesota along with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Oregon have been teasers for Republicans in the past 2 decades. Every election money is spent there and every election the Republicans are close but don't win. Obama won big in these states, but let's remember the margin he won by overall. Pawlenty would have a great chance at the state though.

Minnesota has a large enough rural, farm-based population that votes republican to keep the margins from being really high, but its urban population will probably always drown out the republican vote... unless the GOP can suddenly start appealing to voters in urban areas. The only way Pawlenty (or any republican) carries Minnesota is if he can rack up impressive margins in southern MN, manage to win western MN, do better than usual in the Ironhead area, and manage to get about 40% in the TC's.

[Derek]

That sounds like alot of things for a current governor to have to do. Do you mean if he does one of those things?