Make a Bold Prediction for the 2012 election

[pbrower2a]

Palin will defeat Obama in a comfortable victory.

Among those similarly contemptuous of anyone who can be understood in any way to be intellectuals.

Yawn!

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I think your first map was more accurate, Libertas. Washington is safe Dem.

Perhaps Mechaman is getting me delusional with optimism...

[DemocratsVictory2008]

1) Palin will be the 2012 nominee..star power wins and she takes Iowa, SC, and wraps up the nomination with a win in TX. Limbaugh, Beck and Hannity applaud a "true conservative"

2) The economy will begin rebounding in late 2010, Dems still lose 25 seats but keep control of congress, economy becomes a plus for democrats beginning in late 2011.

3) Obama wins in a landslide 57-42%, makes major inroads in the west but very few in appalachia and the rural south.

4) Obama holds all 2008 states, wins Arizona, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. Falls short in Georgia and Texas despite optimism, loses GA by 1%, TX by 4%

5) Obama wins Florida by more than 10%, wins Virginia by 13% and adds to margins in the DC suburbs. Also captures Morris and Hunterdon counties in NJ as they dont take too kindly to Palin.

[pbrower2a]

1) Palin will be the 2012 nominee..star power wins and she takes Iowa, SC, and wraps up the nomination with a win in TX. Limbaugh, Beck and Hannity applaud a "true conservative"

2) The economy will begin rebounding in late 2010, Dems still lose 25 seats but keep control of congress, economy becomes a plus for democrats beginning in late 2011.

3) Obama wins in a landslide 57-42%, makes major inroads in the west but very few in appalachia and the rural south.

4) Obama holds all 2008 states, wins Arizona, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. Falls short in Georgia and Texas despite optimism, loses GA by 1%, TX by 4%

5) Obama wins Florida by more than 10%, wins Virginia by 13% and adds to margins in the DC suburbs. Also captures Morris and Hunterdon counties in NJ as they dont take too kindly to Palin.

Actually, if a Democrat won Florida by 10% he would likely win Texas. Politically, Texas is best described as Kansas grafted onto Florida. An 8% win for a Democrat in Florida implies a tie in Texas.

Palin would probably do badly in Kansas; Kansas may be conservative but it isn't crazy.

[pogo stick]

Obama loses. That is all.

[Frodo]

Not quite 'bold' as I would describe it, but nonetheless:

1. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee will become the GOP 2012 presidential nominee, and will pick Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma as his running-mate.  Coburn's strength with economic and fiscal conservatives would nicely balance Huckabee's appeal to social and religious conservatives with whom he has greater affinity.  Overall, the most conservative (yet mainstream) ticket yet offered by the Republican Party.  The conservative grassroots base is enthralled...

2. Economy will be well on the mend, with job growth steadily pushing the unemployment rate down to 7%.

3. Health care as well as financial regulatory reform will have been signed into law by January 2010, and prove quite popular.

4. The Obama/Biden re-election campaign defeats Huckabee/Coburn in a massive landslide the likes of which had not been seen since George H. W. Bush's lopsided victory over Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988.  Also, Democrats in Congress and in other races throughout the country not only hold their own but even gain additional seats by taking advantage of the GOP's internal purge of moderates.  Result is greater Democratic control of the levers of power than was seen even after the 2008 election.  

[Devilman88]

1.) A darkhouse will win the Republican Primary
2.) Unemplyment in Oct 2012 will be close to 12%
3.) Obama will lose re-election, the Republican's will gain, VA, NC, IN, NV, FL, OH, IA, PA, WI, MI, NH, NM, CO and NE-1 in 2012.

[Beet]

What do I honestly think will happen right now? First of all, no health care reform passes before the end of the year. It may pass early next year, then again it may never pass.

Job losses will probably continue into next year, with a flat-line sometime around Spring. That means that unemployment will probably peak sometime between May and November. By election day, voters are still very angry, and the GOP makes major gains. The Democrats manage to hold onto the Senate with 50-55 votes, saved by their poor showing in 2004. On the House side, they are not so lucky and either lose their majority or almost lost their majority, but probably the former. Either way, Nancy Pelosi resigns as House Speaker.

Sometime between January 2010 and January 2012, it becomes clear that Sarah Palin will be the Republican nominee, and it won't even be close. Huckabee doesn't even run, and Pawlenty and Romney try to run but drop out once they have read the tea leaves.

The Democratic legislative agenda is deeply unsuccessful. If health care passes at all, it is the Democratic Congress's last major initiative, except for financial reform, which is saved only because of massive populist anger at banks and broad-based consensus for some change. Cap and trade fail to pass. Any sort of immigration reform fails to pass. Obama's popularity continues to plummet. Finally, in 2011 and 2012, the Democratic party abandons its agenda and takes a sharp turn towards the center.

The public is highly engaged, and it is known from early on the race will be Obama vs. Palin, two highly polarizing personalities. The general mood is bitter and angry in the face of high unemployment and deficits, although these are generally improving slowly. A large portion of the electorate is willing to vote third party, although it is unclear whether any billionaires can step up to the plate. As a result, 2012 is the longest and most grueling general election campaign in modern history, effectively lasting from 18 to 24 months. The result is uncertain, but if the economy is sufficiently recovered, a more humbled Obama can be re-elected, barring unforeseen circumstances.

[Joe Republic]

Here's my bold prediction:

The election will be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.

[Mechaman]

What do I honestly think will happen right now? First of all, no health care reform passes before the end of the year. It may pass early next year, then again it may never pass.

Job losses will probably continue into next year, with a flat-line sometime around Spring. That means that unemployment will probably peak sometime between May and November. By election day, voters are still very angry, and the GOP makes major gains. The Democrats manage to hold onto the Senate with 50-55 votes, saved by their poor showing in 2004. On the House side, they are not so lucky and either lose their majority or almost lost their majority, but probably the former. Either way, Nancy Pelosi resigns as House Speaker.

Sometime between January 2010 and January 2012, it becomes clear that Sarah Palin will be the Republican nominee, and it won't even be close. Huckabee doesn't even run, and Pawlenty and Romney try to run but drop out once they have read the tea leaves.

The Democratic legislative agenda is deeply unsuccessful. If health care passes at all, it is the Democratic Congress's last major initiative, except for financial reform, which is saved only because of massive populist anger at banks and broad-based consensus for some change. Cap and trade fail to pass. Any sort of immigration reform fails to pass. Obama's popularity continues to plummet. Finally, in 2011 and 2012, the Democratic party abandons its agenda and takes a sharp turn towards the center.

The public is highly engaged, and it is known from early on the race will be Obama vs. Palin, two highly polarizing personalities. The general mood is bitter and angry in the face of high unemployment and deficits, although these are generally improving slowly. A large portion of the electorate is willing to vote third party, although it is unclear whether any billionaires can step up to the plate. As a result, 2012 is the longest and most grueling general election campaign in modern history, effectively lasting from 18 to 24 months. The result is uncertain, but if the economy is sufficiently recovered, a more humbled Obama can be re-elected, barring unforeseen circumstances.

Wow this is bold..

[Smash255]

Palin will defeat Obama in a comfortable victory.

Please re-read the tite.  It says make a BOLD prediction not make a Retarded one....

[pbrower2a]

Palin will defeat Obama in a comfortable victory.

Insane!

Obama versus Palin could be the biggest Democratic landslide since LBJ versus Goldwater.

[Mechaman]

Here's a bold prediction:

Obama kicks the can in late 2011 and Biden ends up as president and decides to run for re-election just to torment us longer. Due to the "legacy" effect he wins election. Also to further the torment he runs in 2016 just because he is that awesome!

[Psychic Octopus]

We will see the first inaugural speech of Mark Clement Sanford, Jr. on January 20, 2012, after the 350+ electoral vote defeat of Barack Hussein Obama, Jr.

Sanford is going to be sworn in as president 10 months before the election?

of Argentina?

My biggest failure. It was of course, before the affair...

*Runs and Cries*

[Mr. Morden]

We will see the first inaugural speech of Mark Clement Sanford, Jr. on January 20, 2012, after the 350+ electoral vote defeat of Barack Hussein Obama, Jr.

Sanford is going to be sworn in as president 10 months before the election?

of Argentina?

My biggest failure. It was of course, before the affair...

*Runs and Cries*

Also before the inauguration was rescheduled from January 2012 to January 2013.

[pbrower2a]

1.) A darkhouse will win the Republican Primary
2.) Unemplyment in Oct 2012 will be close to 12%
3.) Obama will lose re-election, the Republican's will gain, VA, NC, IN, NV, FL, OH, IA, PA, WI, MI, NH, NM, CO and NE-1 in 2012.

1) reasonable

2) Economic recovery will be slow, but it will be evident. The GOP nominee can carp at details and claim that he wouldn't "make the same mistakes".  It won't work.  This recovery will have its basis in reinvestment in wealth creation instead of a credit-fueled consumer binge and a speculative bubble.

3) That looks like Barack Obama facing and losing to "Mr. Generic Republican". Somehow, "Mr. Generic Republican", a candidate easily constructed three years earlier, goes dormant in the primaries.

[Inmate Trump]

Do I only get one shot at this?


The Republican Party will nominate an unknown.

Obama loses.

-or-

The Republican Party nominates Mitt Romney/Mike Huckabee/Sarah Palin.

Obama wins (although at this point, and as long as his #'s stay as low as they are, NOT by a landslide)

[DS0816]

Barack Obama wins re-election against a terrible Republican opponent (or rival with a lukewarm/crazed reaction). The GOP does not pick itself up out of the gutter by 2012. Result: Obama nearly doubles his 2008 margin, winning approximately 56 percent of the vote.

Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina in margins between 3 and 5 points. Virginia performs similarly in 2012 to that of 2008.

Obama picks up the 1st Congressional District in Nebraska. He flips Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana. (Those pickups bring electoral vote count up to 400.)

South Carolina becomes a toss-up and doesn't get called before the winner has been projected on Election Night. North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas move into battleground status where they perform under 5 points for Republican challenger (who holds them).

Arkansas and West Virginia are consistent to that of 2008 (regardless whether the former's ex-governor, Mike Huckabee, wins the nomination). So are Louisana and Tennessee.

Kentucky is 10-15 percent more Democratic shift.

[Lahbas]

The economy has to an extent recovered, but unemployment has remained fairly static between nine and ten percent. Mitch Daniels in an upset manages to defeat both Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee largely due to the split in the Conservative voting block. Barack Obama, despit having an approval rating in the thirties, decides to run for reelection, facing opposition from Mark Warner. However, Obama's charisma manages to largely bring back the moderate wing of the Democratic Party, reducing many of Warner's victories to the Southern and Western states. At the convention, Obama would replace Joe Biden, who had committed a number of major gaffes throughout the administration's history, with a moderate Democrat from either the West or South. Daniels's chooses a Conservative from the South. The major theme is unemployment, with many in that category voting for Daniels simply because they feel betrayed by Obama (claiming the economy had recovered despite still living on the street).

Barack Hussein Obama          44%          213 Electoral
Mitchell Elias "Mitch" Daniels, Jr.          53%          323 Electoral

If unemployment were not such a major factor, Obama would easily have pulled off a victory, though still not comparable to his 2008 landslide.

Barack Hussein Obama          49%          282 Electoral

Mitchell Elias "Mitch" Daniels, Jr.          47%          255 Electoral

[Lahbas]

Then there is the Third Way, where Barack Obama is viewed as to far left, and a right wing candidate such as Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee takes the reins of the Republican Party. This Third Way would either take the form of a Independent Candidate for President, similar in nature to Ross Perot in 1992, or the establishment of a new, or expansion of a currently existing, Third Party. This political power will aim at attracting a coalition of Moderate Republicans and Democrats. It would blame Republicans for creating the economic downturn, and then the Democrats for making the problem worse, claiming that new leadership was required to bring the nation back to its feet. While it would prove to be a success in terms of the popular vote, the Electoral College would disappoint. At the same time, it would hurt the Republicans more than the Democrats, since many voters at this point would be disillusioned with both. Therefore, it would likely depend on the House on who has won the Presidency.

Barack Hussein Obama          37%          266 Electoral

Michael Dale "Mike" Huckabee          41%          258 Electoral

Third Party Canidate          23%          16 Electoral

[pbrower2a]

(modified)

The economy has to an extent recovered, but unemployment has remained fairly static between nine and ten percent. Mitch Daniels in an upset manages to defeat both Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee largely due to the split in the Conservative voting block. Barack Obama,  having an approval rating in the high forties, decides to run for reelection, facing opposition from Mark Warner.  Daniels chooses a Conservative from the South. The major theme is unemployment, with many in that category voting for Daniels simply because they feel betrayed by Obama (claiming the economy had recovered despite still living on the street). But toward the end of the campaign Daniels slips up and shows that the Republican Party offers little more than a raid on the public sector. His proposal to sell off the Interstate Highway System to a consortium of foreign investors who would turn it into an unregulated monopoly that would make highway transportation a means of fleecing everyone:  

The Favorite Son effect barely flips Indiana, but Americans are convinced that they don't want a tax-like increase on every incidence of  long-distance travel and everything that comes by truck. Obama wins an Eisenhower-scale landslide despite a stagnant economy that after a feeble recovery has gone into a recession. Daniels' "modest proposal" gets exposed as  a sure failure.  In the end the consortium that would make the deal shows that it doesn't have the funds for the scheme and that it would have to be a sweetheart deal to make sense for the consortium.  Daniels is unable to convince people that increasing the cost of everything is a good solution to Obama-era deficits.

[California8429]

I don't run for President, neither does Congressman Lamborn

[DS0816]

Using the color scheme most commonly recognized, Barack Obama carries his 2008 states [worth 358 in Election 2012] and flips the following into his column: Arizona [12], Georgia [16], Missouri [10], Montana [3], and South Carolina [9].

Obama, who retains the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska, also wins the state's
1st Congressional District.

Total: 409 electoral votes.

[cardboard59]

A far-left candidate (Sherrod Brown?) challenges Obama in the 2012 primary, but Obama manages to ward him off, winning the primary popular vote by a 2.5-1 margin. By that point, unemployment will have dropped a few percentage points, and Obama's approval rating will be in the mid-50s.

The question is who the GOP will run; Huckabee is out of the picture after pardoning Maurice Clemmons (the GOP's Willie Horton). At this rate, any one of the GOP's prospective candidates wouldn't fare well nationally.

I predict that Obama will be re-elected, winning anywhere from 330 to 420 electoral votes.

[milhouse24]

I believe that Jeb Bush would be convinced to be put on the ticket and he would beat Obama.