2010

[Padfoot]

Its certainly plausible but I think both parties are going to be dealing with some difficult seats to defend.  I imagine these seats will be the top targets:

Democrats                                    Republicans
Lincoln-AR                                      open-FL
(Salazar replacement ?)-CO          Grassley-IA
open-DE                                         open-KS
(Obama replacement ?)-IL            Bunning-KY
Bayh-IN                                         Bond-MO
Reid-NV                                         Gregg-NH
(Clinton replacement)-NY              Burr-NC
Dorgan-ND                                    Voinovich-OH
Feingold-WI                                  Specter-PA

This is just a preliminary list based on how these states look on paper.  Some of these Senators are fairly popular and can probably withstand a partisan wave ala Collins-ME in 2008.  Lincoln herself survived the Republican Senate onslaught in the South in 2004.  But based on this, and the fact that the partisan make-up of the seats up for election in 2010 is almost evenly split, I'd say either party has the opportunity to pick up a net of 3-4 seats.  However, all of this could be thrown out the window depending how the first two years of the Obama administration pan out.  You never know what's going to happen.