Electoral vote changes in 2012

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Between the 2008 and 2012 elections, the 2010 Census will take place, changing the makeup of the House of Representatives in the US Congress (how many representatives each state has), and therefore the electoral vote. Which states will gain or lose electoral votes (and how many exactly), and which states will have no electoral vote change?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Louisiana, Missouri, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, and New York each lose 1 vote. Illinois and New Jersey both lose 2 votes.

Virginia, Texas, California, Georgia, Utah, and North Carolina each gain 1 vote. Florida and South Carolina both gain 2 votes.

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Washington state, Washington DC, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming all have no change.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

South Carolina will gain 2 votes? I'd love to see that happen, but that's the first I've heard.

[Lunar]

http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/35319369.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUl

MN will come down to the wire (again)

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Based on my earlier post, here is the electoral map for 2012. Numbers indicate current electoral vote count.

Dark red: Loses 2 votes
Light red: Loses 1 vote
Light blue: Gains 1 vote
Dark blue: Gains 2 votes
Gray: No vote change

[muon2]

Based on my earlier post, here is the electoral map for 2012. Numbers indicate current electoral vote count.

Dark red: Loses 2 votes
Light red: Loses 1 vote
Light blue: Gains 1 vote
Dark blue: Gains 2 votes
Gray: No vote change

Not very likely. My estimates and forward projections are here and in my sig.

[aaaa2222]

Texas is supposed to gain at least three, possibly four votes, where have you been?

[Rust Belt Blue]

Most people in Ohio seem to think that we will lose at least one, possibly two seats.  Most of Ohio's major cities have lost population: Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron/Canton, Toledo.  Columbus has grown slightly and Cincinnati has seen modest gains.  I don't think that these gains are going to be enough to offset the losses in the other urban areas.

I project that Ohio will lose one seat, going from 20 to 19 electoral votes.

[muon2]

Most people in Ohio seem to think that we will lose at least one, possibly two seats.  Most of Ohio's major cities have lost population: Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron/Canton, Toledo.  Columbus has grown slightly and Cincinnati has seen modest gains.  I don't think that these gains are going to be enough to offset the losses in the other urban areas.

I project that Ohio will lose one seat, going from 20 to 19 electoral votes.

I think a loss of 2 is much more likely. Current estimates have OH growing at an overall rate of only 0.1% per year which is the lowest rate of any large state. The only significant growth is in the suburban counties surrounding Cincinnati and Columbus. The populous northeastern quarter (17 counties from Erie south to Richland and east to Columbiana) is projected to lose over 100 K people over the decade.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think NC will gain one. We are growing really fast.

[muon2]

I think NC will gain one. We are growing really fast.

jimrtex had a good response as to why that growth may not be enough:

I was for sure since NC growth since 2000 is about 1.3 million we would gain a seat, but this number and states gainning and losing seat can change between now and then. What is the likelyhood of NC getting another seat?

North Carolina was lucky to get the 13th seat in 2000.  This is not only due to the closeness of its margin over Utah, but also due to the overall population distribution among the States, such that a couple of States, including California and North Carolina, gained an extra seat based on the need to apportionment 435 seats.

Overall, the USA is projected to increase by 9.8% in population during the decade, equivalent to about 70,000 per CD.  Just to stay even, North Carolina would need 13 x 70,000 or around 910,000.  They would then need an excess of about 700,000 beyond that to gain a 14th seat.  And that would be to just place them on the cusp of getting lucky for that seat.

I project that they will gain no more than 1.5 M over this decade which is short of the 1.6 M that jimrtex estimates they would need to be on the cusp of a new seat.

[Psychic Octopus]

California will lose one.