Here's what I get for '92 if we allow Bush to win states with a difference of 4 points or less
Simplicity, mostly. I agree that most of Perot's votes were anti-Bush votes, but I think a certain number of them were basically conservative votes that were not inclined to go for Clinton.
I agree that Perot voters were mostly anti-Bush/anti-incumbent but not inclined to go for Clinton when there was another choice. But faced with the only two options, how do they vote? I dont see that most of them would have picked Bush.
IIRC based on polling a good deal of them would have stayed home.
