electoral map after 2020-guess

[Psychic Octopus]

[paul718]

You love the future.

[pragmatic liberal]

Doubt it. If anything, I see Democrats doing better in the sunbelt and New South states, carrying through on trends that lifted Obama.

Georgia and Texas could be swing states, along with NC, and Florida and Virginia could lean Dem.

However, that whole Mississippi belt - Ark., La., Tenn. - is probably gone. Missouri stays somewhat more competitive, because it's part-Midwestern, but it still goes Republican far more often than Democratic.

For now, given economic woes, the Midwest probably stays Republican. But by 2020? Who knows? Historically, the Midwest has always been a swing region. If the economy there changes radically, it could even become a lean GOP region -- at least states like Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin (although I think Pennsylvania shores up for Democrats, due to the bluing of the Philly-metro area).

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Too early to tell--we have yet to find out the electoral vote changes for 2010 and we are already thinking about 2020?? As to how the states vote, that depends on who is president by then and what events happen by then (like whether or not the economy recovers, and if so then under which party).

[Lief 🗽]

A narrow Republican defeat of the Democratic incumbent.

[Psychic Octopus]

You love the future.

yes, Yes I do.

[Blazers93]

Completely unscientific version of a 50-50 2020 election. Under the current EV allocation, it would be a 273-265 Democratic win, but in 12 years, it should be a tie or narrow Republican win.

[12th Doctor]

The political situation is likely going to be significantly different in 12 years, and so any predictions based off of current dynamics are folly.  If you look at a map of 1996, it would have been difficult to extrapolate many of the emerging political trends, go back further and it is impossible.  Sure, in retrospect, we can see the origins of some of these emerging trends, but....

The fact is, the issues change, the parties change, and regions change.

I for one think that the the recent economic events, combined with the emerging energy economy and world events are going to make for a very different political scene in the next decade.

[humder]

This shall be the result of 2020-

[Tender Branson]

[Holmes]

Probably this, although a bit skeptical on Texas... who knows.

Puerto Rico?

[Psychic Octopus]

my mistake... I meant the electoral college>

[pbrower2a]

Does anyone think that Guam and the American Virgin Islands could also be states at some time?

[Padfoot]

Does anyone think that Guam and the American Virgin Islands could also be states at some time?

No.  Although Guam enjoys being part of the US it doesn't have the population or economy to justify statehood.  As for the USVI, I believe that they're in a similar situation and they are much more apathetic when it comes to their political status.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would look like this :

Democrats will gain ground in the southern east coast and the mexican border whereas republicans will do better in the rust belt.

[aaaa2222]

I´m going to guess that Puerto Rico will be a state by then.

[Psychic Octopus]

I´m going to guess that Puerto Rico will be a state by then.

We can only hope.

[Verily]

Does anyone think that Guam and the American Virgin Islands could also be states at some time?

Not enough people to ever be admitted as a state. Now, a Pan-Pacific state could maybe happen, but I doubt Guam, the Marianas and American Samoa would be fans (especially Samoa). Guam and the Marianas, at least, might one day decide to be annexed by Hawaii, but not any time soon. American Samoa is more likely to join Samoa.

There is occasional chatter of the USVI joining Puerto Rico if PR ever became a state, but there's a serious language barrier there (the USVI speaks English), so a merge is unlikely to happen. And otherwise the USVI is just too small to ever be a state on its own. Maybe if it decided to be annexed by Florida or New York or something, but I don't see that happening any time soon.

It currently seems like a very strong possibility that Puerto Rico will hold another statehood referendum within the next couple of years, possibly even before the 2012 election (although statehood itself would probably take another couple of years to work out). But a referendum is by no means guaranteed to pass, either.

[pbrower2a]

2020 may be a new Era of Good Feeling with the demise of the Republican Party. The more interesting divide may happen in 2024 after the Democratic Party splits as it did within a few years after the disappearance of the Federalists and Whigs.

Conservative and Labor?

Christian Democrats and Social Democrats?

Conservatives and  Social Democrats?

What is to say that the electoral college, or at least the winner-take-all system. won't be abolished by Constitutional amendment, or that an interstate compound ("such and such states will vote for the winners of the popular vote") won't effectively give the election to the winner of the popular vote?

The GOP looks as if it is in a death spiral -- one far harder to extricate itself from than the GOP was in in the 1930s. The GOP endured one of the most lopsided electoral defeats in 1936 after economic bumbling that came close to putting the capitalist system in mortal peril.  That was bad enough, but add the pervasive corruption and dictatorial tendencies of the GOP clique of at least 2001-2006, that George W. Bush is likely to become even more a non-person than Hoover, and things could get so bad that the real alignment occurs with the split of the ultimate Big Tent Party that can win overwhelming victories for a few years.

The Senate losses for the GOP in 2006 and 2008 show little sign of reversal in 2010. Those losses could include defections as well as defeats.

Watch the 2012 election for President to see if Obama picks up the states that he got clobbered in in 2008 but Clinton won at least once (AR, LA, KY, WV, TN, GA) likely to move together and the states that haven't voted for a Democratic nominee since Carter in 1976 (TX, MS, AL, SC)... then it could be time to write the last chapter of the Party of Lincoln, the penultimate chapter being the time in which it adopted the suicidal "majority of a majority" strategy... of Vladimir Lenin.     

[tmthforu94]

Confidence Map:

Final Result:

[pbrower2a]

(Corrections made)

Code:

Red: states likely to vote for any Democratic nominee for President should demographic trends continue.

Yellow: Very close under most circumstances.

Green:  Potential gains for Democrats should Obama win back the usual voters for Southern moderate populists such as Carter '76 an Clinton '92/'96. If Obama doesn't, someone like Carter '76 or Clinton '92//96 run for them.

Blue: Last likely holdouts for the GOP.

[Lunar]

How is Ohio demographically changing to help the Democrats?

Blue: Last likely holdouts for the GOP.

What, before they're eliminated?

[RI]

WTF Colorado?

[12th Doctor]

Code:

Red: states likely to vote for any Democratic nominee for President should demographic trends continue.

Yellow: Very close under most circumstances.

Green:  Potential gains for Democrats should Obama win back the usual voters for Southern moderate populists such as Carter '76 an Clinton '92/'96.

Blue: Last likely holdouts for the GOP.

Oh, yes... in 2020 the Republican Party is going to be utterly irrelevant.  The Obama steamrolling is just gonna keep moving ahead.  These things aren't cyclical or anything.

[pbrower2a]

Current reality:

Code:

Red: states likely to vote for almost any Democratic nominee for President should demographic trends continue.

Yellow: Very close under most circumstances.

Green:  Potential gains for Democrats should Obama win back the usual voters for Southern moderate populists such as Carter '76 an Clinton '92/'96.

Blue: Last likely holdouts for the GOP.

Oh, yes... in 2020 the Republican Party is going to be utterly irrelevant.  The Obama steamrolling is just gonna keep moving ahead.  These things aren't cyclical or anything.

Cyclical? The model for a cyclical drought for the GOP would be 1930/2006 as Stage I, 1932/2008 as Stage II... we will have to see about 2010 and 2012. Twenty years after FDR won a landslide victory in 1932, in came Dwight Eisenhower, a watered-down New Dealer who might have as well been a Democrat.  Eisenhower had to get Americans to forget Herbert Hoover. If conservatives are still running as Republicans in 2008, then those conservatives will have to make people forget about George W. Bush. Note well that corruption and dictatorial tendencies ensured that the Democrats could take back the Senate House of Representatives in 2006 and only added to the trend in 2008 by electing their Presidential candidate. People are not going to forget the real estate meltdown of 2007-?? very soon; and they will associate it with George W. Bush. If things improve at all they will lionize Obama for a long time.

Eisenhower had it fairly easy in one respect: Herbert Hoover was a man of impeccable integrity, much unlike Dubya. That's one thing that any Republican of 2024 or later will have to live down or repudiate in practice.

Demographic change suggests that the youngest voters are trending Democratic. When do they start to trend Republican again? Not until 2024 when the newest voters have little memory of George W. Bush in full charge. That the youth entering the electorate now are more active as voters and campaign volunteers than any generation since that of the World War II veterans suggests that the GOP will be in electoral trouble for a long time.

I have not said that conservatism is dead; it's the Republican Party that seems to be dying because of the disastrous Bush Presidency. But if the Republican Party dies, conservatives will have to win Democratic nominations -- until the Democratic Party splits. Your guess is as good as mine on how the split would happen. I can name all sorts of names for the new two parties of the new two-party system, but some are familiar in places like Italy, Germany, Sweden, Spain, and Great Britain.

A conservative in 2028 might be running as a "Christian Democrat" and not as a Republican.