Zogby insists the race is now even again

[rockhound]

If this is soccer, I'm looking for a nil-nil final result.

Actually, maybe that's what we'll get.

[struct310]

How can we discredit Zogby so hes never allowed to poll again unless a D is attached at the end of Zogby(D)

[afleitch]

Did I just read what I thought I read? 'Discredit Zogby'- why? Is it a plot, who is the ring-leader- and why even bother?

[struct310]

Did I just read what I thought I read? 'Discredit Zogby'- why? Is it a plot, who is the ring-leader- and why even bother?

Its only because he changes perception through bad polling.  He is wrong, absolutely wrong on every poll he has done this year pretty much.  And he has expressed his support for John Kerry on multiple occasions, yet the newspapers and tv media still report his findings as if it were a sign from God.  He needs to be labeled as a democratic pollster and his findings exposed as a partisan sham, which is just what Zogby is.  And think of all those other electoral projection sites which use his ridiculous polls to also change perception and down the Bush base.

[afleitch]

Well, I don't trust Zogby much either, but it seems sour grapes to me to simply try to rubbish and discredit the man. Surely if his polls are as bad as they say, he will simply discredit himself. If....if Zogby gets 2004 right come November- then I hope you have the dignity to apologise to him!

[struct310]

Well, I don't trust Zogby much either, but it seems sour grapes to me to simply try to rubbish and discredit the man. Surely if his polls are as bad as they say, he will simply discredit himself. If....if Zogby gets 2004 right come November- then I hope you have the dignity to apologise to him!

I absolutely do have the dignity to apologise to him.  But hes wrong and I know it in my bones hes wrong.  The problem is that the polls wont discredit Zogby, the media will still cover him time and time again.  They will overshadow the fact that he will end up wrong this year after its over.

[Sam Spade]

If Zogby's right in state polling, I'll apologize for what I said about his state polls.  I have always respected his national polls, so there's no reason to apologize.

In the same vein, if Rasmussen and ARG are right in anything this time around, I'll apologize for mocking them too.

However, I would hope those on the left would apologize to Gallup if they turn out to be right this year as well..  :-)

[The Vorlon]

Zogby...

A picture graphic is worth a 1000 words

Mind you, these were telephone polls in 2002

Perhaps using the internet is more accurate.. ??

This information is provided without comment, allowing the reader to draw whatever conclusions they deem reasonable about Mr. Zogby and his polling.


This information is provided without comment, allowing the reader to draw whatever conclusions they deem reasonable about Mr. Zogby and his polling.

[Gustaf]

I kind of hope Zogby will do well, simply b/c it would be so much fun if he did...now THAT would be an election night shocker!

Not gonna happen though, I know...

[J-Mann]

Zogby's latest round of state polls have drastically changed the map at http://www.electoral-vote.com.  Go figure.  Just yesterday, Bush was up 327 to 211 or so.  Now he's behind 269 to 253, with Arkansas and Maryland tied.  The state-by-state results are usually fairly consistent on electoral-vote.com, and if state's swing one way or the other, they do so slowly and reasonably.  Zogby's wild polls are huge anomolies when thrown into the mix of other polls.

[The Vorlon]

Zogby's latest round of state polls have drastically changed the map at http://www.electoral-vote.com.  Go figure.  Just yesterday, Bush was up 327 to 211 or so.  Now he's behind 269 to 253, with Arkansas and Maryland tied.  The state-by-state results are usually fairly consistent on electoral-vote.com, and if state's swing one way or the other, they do so slowly and reasonably.  Zogby's wild polls are huge anomolies when thrown into the mix of other polls.

I never trust any one poll, even a very good one.

Individually, any one could be garbage.

I ignore polls one by one, I trust them by the Dozen

[CARLHAYDEN]

While I agree that even a good pollster has an occasional glich, I find relying on a batch of polls from firms known for their inaccuracy to be a mistake.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This race is not even, but it is actually not all that far from even.

GOP types are posting like Bush is up a zillion points and will get 360 EVs.

I think Bush's actual lead is about 4% or so.  Ohio looks good, Pennsylvania is very close to even right now, maybe Bush up 2% or so..

Better to be up than down to be sure, and Kerry's personal favorability has just collapsed, but there are a lot of events still to unfold.

This thing is a long way from over.

I am most definitely not a GOP type, but my gut is telling me that Bush is very close to dealing the knock-out blow.  No events are going to change people's general sense of unease with Kerry.  I think it's going to take Bush saying something unbelievably stupid, or something very very bad happening, in the second half of October, for him to lose this election.

Still, six weeks is an eternity.  BUT, I can understand the GOP swagger right now on this forum.

[The Vorlon]

While I agree that even a good pollster has an occasional glich, I find relying on a batch of polls from firms known for their inaccuracy to be a mistake.

Zogby says Arkansas is dead even.

Both the Kerry and Bush campaigns have pulled ads and staff from the state and conceeded it to Bush.

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/09/22/DavidJSanders/291269.html

'nuff Said

[dougrhess]

Pro-Islamic Zogby has lost all objectivity since 9/11

Because he's Arab (or also Muslim, I don't know if he is) he has no objectivity since 9/11?  What do you mean? Sounds like you've lost objectivity and made a racist statement.

Object #1:  Zogby went from being the at the top of pollsters prior to 9/11, to being at the bottom post 9/11

Object #2:  Zogby's family members are in leadership positions within radical Islamic groups.

---

So, I think it is reasonable to think Zogby has been blinded by own bias since the War on Terror began.

Do you have another theory as to why Zogby's slide coincided with 9/11?

Can you point to an article on his family members connection? Do their connections equal his political beliefs?

[J. J.]

Hi, this is my first post.  

James Zogby, the President of the Arab American Institute (AAI), is the bother of John Zogby, the pollster.  I have heard about the AAI and I don't believe they could be called "radical."  The site posted below is a State Department release about a meeting with the group and Secretary Powell, who I wouldn't class as "radical" either.

http://usembassymalaysia.org.my/0403pwlaai.htm

That said, I too have noticed a problem with Zogby polls, polls at the same time, in the same state, tend to add more points to Bush.  This is true when compared with other media conducted polls, not candidate polls.  I tend to add 2-3 points to Bush in Zogby's results.

One problem is that they use registered voters and not likely voters; that alone could account for the problem.  I don't think it's bias based Zogby being of Arab extraction.  One recent Gallop Poll showed Bush with 13 point lead, while all others showed a much smaller lead.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hi, this is my first post.  

James Zogby, the President of the Arab American Institute (AAI), is the bother of John Zogby, the pollster.  I have heard about the AAI and I don't believe they could be called "radical."  The site posted below is a State Department release about a meeting with the group and Secretary Powell, who I wouldn't class as "radical" either.

http://usembassymalaysia.org.my/0403pwlaai.htm

That said, I too have noticed a problem with Zogby polls, polls at the same time, in the same state, tend to add more points to Bush.  This is true when compared with other media conducted polls, not candidate polls.  I tend to add 2-3 points to Bush in Zogby's results.

One problem is that they use registered voters and not likely voters; that alone could account for the problem.  I don't think it's bias based Zogby being of Arab extraction.  One recent Gallop Poll showed Bush with 13 point lead, while all others showed a much smaller lead.

Oh great another Republican Philadelphian has entered!  Where from?  Let me guess.. the Northeast.  

[MODU]

Oh great another Republican Philadelphian has entered!  Where from?  Let me guess.. the Northeast.  

Now now, don't be rude.  Welcome your neighbor to the forum.  

[J. J.]

Oh great another Republican Philadelphian has entered!  Where from?  Let me guess.. the Northeast. 

Try Broad and Erie.

As for rude, I'm from North Philly.  :-)  All of my posts are heavily censored.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I meant to ask you ask a political strategy question, Vorlon, in your last post.

I basically agree with your analysis with regards to the vote right now.  Things can change with regards to turnout by a point or two, but the aggregate of all state polls is showing Bush up in this race by roughly 4.

My political strategy question is this, what exactly does Kerry have to start doing to push the numbers the other way?

The subset of that questions are these:

Is it easier for him to improve his own favorables or turn Bush's favorables in a negative direction?  

Which one will produce better results among the electorate?

Can Kerry define a clear message at this point that will resonate with the voters or does he have to hope that things will go awry for the Prez in Iraq and the economy?

In the same way, will just being critical on things resonate with people or does he have to produce his own solutions? (which I don't think he has, btw)

Just some thoughts.

Kerry's personal favorability ratings have gotten hammered.  The bottom line is people just like Bush as a human more than they like Kerry.

I could quote a zillion polls, but they all say the same thing.

If this race is Bush versus Kerry, Kerry loses.

So Kerry's objective is to make it NOT Bush vs Kerry.

This is why he has changed his focus to Iraq.

If this race becomes:

Iraq War - Yes or No...?

Then Kerry has a decent shot.

Bush has 40+ish % personal negatives - those are not going up or down.  After 4 years, people know Bush and have made a judgement.

Kerry after his convention had better favorables then Bush, this is gone.

"Iraq - Yes or NO" is the one line summary of Kerry's campaign.

"Which person do you like better - Bush or Kerry" is the one line GOP summary.

kerry needs to hope things blow up bad in Iraq and that any solution (even his, whatever it may be) gets embraced out of fear or anger in the electorate.

Kerry is actually attacking Bush not to hurt Bush, but rather to try to get some energy back into his own base.

Both sides have given up on the "swing voter"

This is now purely a logistical race.

Bush has a 4% lead, the Kerry team hopes they can fire up their base enought to overcome 4% "on the ground" with the Dems traditionally better Get Out The Vote efforts.

The race, was, is, and will likely remain close

I disagree with you on one point.

Bush is continuing to focus on the undecided voter.

Notice how he has showcased the "softer" side to get the white female vote, and contrast that with the shrillness from Kerry.

[TeePee4Prez]

Oh great another Republican Philadelphian has entered!  Where from?  Let me guess.. the Northeast.  

Try Broad and Erie.

As for rude, I'm from North Philly.  :-)  All of my posts are heavily censored.

Broad and Erie??? A Republican?? I never thought I'd be seeing that day come.  I think Al Sharpton would beat Bush handily in the precincts surrounding that area.

[J. J.]

Senator, believe it or not, all Republicans do NOT have white sheets with eye holes in them.  :-)

BTW, Shapton is about as popular here as he is in Montco.  I know at least one African American woman who says, "I'd never vote for a man who spends more time on his hair that I do on mine."

[J. J.]

Just for the record, here is the AAI site:

http://www.aaiusa.org/about_us.htm

James Zogby, NOT the pollster, is Muslim, getting a doctorate in it at Temple University, according to his bio.
I would note that he served on some advisory boards under Clinton, so I would strongly question the term "radical" in describing the group.  

There wasn't much about religion on the site, except a  graph that showed that 77% of Arab Americans are Christian.

I'll add, just for the record, that I'm neither Muslim or of Arab extraction.

[TeePee4Prez]

Senator, believe it or not, all Republicans do NOT have white sheets with eye holes in them.  :-)

BTW, Shapton is about as popular here as he is in Montco.  I know at least one African American woman who says, "I'd never vote for a man who spends more time on his hair that I do on mine."

I just found it interesting, I'm not insinuating anything.  I know there are African American Republicans some are even more conservative than the ones I know, like Alan Keyes.  I know many who are against gay marriage and pro-faith based charity, soemtimes VERY socially conservative as well though still staunchly Democratic. Broad and Erie?  I'm having trouble getting over that one, but it's possible.  I live up in the Northeast and it's still leans Democratic.    

[J. J.]

I know there are African American Republicans some are even more conservative than the ones I know, like Alan Keyes.  I know many who are against gay marriage and pro-faith based charity, soemtimes VERY socially conservative as well though still staunchly Democratic. Broad and Erie?  I'm having trouble getting over that one, but it's possible.

There are numerous African Americans that are fairly conservative, even of fiscal issues.  The name John Street comes to mind; I'm one of the few Republicans who publically supported him in 1999, even before he won the primary against White and Weinberg.

Who said I'm African American?  You seem to be asssuming a lot from my address.  :-o