1992: Brown/Clinton vs. Dole/Alexander

[bhouston79]

So here's how we get to my scenario.  In 1988, Dukakis eeks out an electoral college victory over George W. Bush utilizing his eighteen state strategy.  (For those who don't know what this is, go to minute 6 of this video and watch the next 45 seconds or so: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x70t1c_the-988-election-from-cbs-part-4-of_shortfilms  Despite narrowly winning the electoral college, he still loses the popular vote by about 2% nationally.  As such, when he is sworn in, he lacks any type of a real mandate.  During his Presidency, he upsets his own base by governing as a Centrist, and he really makes his base angry when he decides to take action in Iraq just as G.W. Bush did in RL.  However, he even goes further than H.W. Bush did in RL by deciding to go ahead and "finish the job" by marching U.S. forces onward to Baghdad in order to depose Saddam Hussein.  They succeed in deposing Saddam Hussien; however, the aftermath of this overthrow results in chaos and secterian violence.  The U.S. military is left in the middle of an ongoing Civil War between Shia and Sunnis, and by the time that the election rolls around, many Americans are very unhappy with the continued occupation.  Right wing conservatives are also angry at him because he raised taxes (just as H.W. Bush did in real life).  Furthermore, although most Republicans agreed with his decision to "finish the job" by marching onward to Baghdad in order to depose Saddam Hussein, the Republicans still criticize Dukakis for ineffectually prosecuting the war.  They argue that he didn't put enough troops on the ground initially.

The economy also suffers under Dukakis (as it did under Bush in RL).  In addition, Dukakis tries to implement health care reform, but like Bill Clinton in RL, his efforts fail miserably.  For a President who never really had a mandate to begin with, he is suddenly faced with the prospect of a serious primary challenge from the left.  In late 1991, Governor Jerry Brown announces his candidacy for President.  Liberal and Dovish Democrats unite behind Brown, who wins a bitterly contested primary.  Brown campaigns on a platform of withdrawing our U.S. troops from Iraq; reviving the faltering U.S. economy by investing in infrastructure; and bringing about real health care reform.  On the Republican side, the primary looks a lot like the RL 1996 primary in that the major contenders are Senator Robert Dole, Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes, and Governor Lamar Alexander of Tennessee.  The establishment candidate, Senator Robert Dole ultimately wins.  Senator Dole supports the ongoing military actions in Iraq and opposes any efforts by liberals to withdraw our troops.  He argues that we can't "cut and run;" we have to finish what we started.  However, Senator Dole lambasts the Dukakis administration for their ineffectual prosecution of the war.  In addition, he points to the economy and claims that the economic woes are the result of Dukakis's liberal economic policies, including his tax hike (which happens to be the same tax hike that H.W. Bush signed into law in RL).

Jerry Brown picks a young Southern Governor by the name of Bill Clinton as his running mate in order to balance out his ticket from both an economic and idealogical perspective.  Robert Dole also picks a former Southern Governor, Lamar Alexander.  During the campaign the primary issues are the economy, which is stagnant, and the ongoing war in Iraq, which by this point in time is already a quagmire.

What happens in the general election?  Discuss with maps:)

[bhouston79]

So here's my prediction under this scenario:

Electoral Votes

Dole     338
Brown  200

Popular Vote

Dole    52.2%
Brown 46.3%
Other    1.5%

In the end Brown (much like McCain in 2008) is running against an anti-incumbent headwind so strong that he can not overcome it even though he overcome it.  He wins the West Coast and New England due to their strong opposition to the war, but he isn't able to win enough other states to get to 270 EVs.

P.S., for whatever reason Ross Perot decides not to run in this particular election.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

What happens to President Dukakis in this scenario? As its never really explained in your post regarding this 1992 scenario between Governor Brown of California and Senator Dole of Kansas.

If anything was to happen in this scenario, President Dukakis would still win the nomination in 1992, similar to President Carter's primary victory over Senator Ted Kennedy in 1980. Now if it was a Dukakis/Dole match up in 1992, then I would expect something along these lines.

Robert J. Dole/A. Lamar Alexander (R): 435 EV, 56% of the PV
Michael S. Dukakis/Lloyd M. Bentsen (D): 103 EV, 43% of the PV
Others (Socialist, Libertarian, etc): 0 EV, 1% of the PV

Incumbent President Michael Dukakis loses re-election in the 1992 Presidential Election to Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas comfortably, thanks in part to an ailing economy and the continuous war ongoing in Iraq. The map which I have created for this Dukakis/Dole match up is very similar to the RL 1988 Presidential map, with the exception of Iowa voting for Dole and Washington voting for Dukakis.

[bhouston79]

What happens to President Dukakis in this scenario? As its never really explained in your post regarding this 1992 scenario between Governor Brown of California and Senator Dole of Kansas.

If anything was to happen in this scenario, President Dukakis would still win the nomination in 1992, similar to President Carter's primary victory over Senator Ted Kennedy in 1980. Now if it was a Dukakis/Dole match up in 1992, then I would expect something along these lines.

Robert J. Dole/A. Lamar Alexander (R): 435 EV, 56% of the PV
Michael S. Dukakis/Lloyd M. Bentsen (D): 103 EV, 43% of the PV
Others (Socialist, Libertarian, etc): 0 EV, 1% of the PV

Incumbent President Michael Dukakis loses re-election in the 1992 Presidential Election to Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas comfortably, thanks in part to an ailing economy and the continuous war ongoing in Iraq. The map which I have created for this Dukakis/Dole match up is very similar to the RL 1988 Presidential map, with the exception of Iowa voting for Dole and Washington voting for Dukakis.

No, I state in the scenario in the fifth sentence of the second paragraph that Jerry Brown wins the Democratic primary.  This isn't like a 1980 scenario; Dukakis actually loses the primary in this scenario.  So this isn't an election between Dukakis and Dole.  It's an election between Jerry Brown and Bob Dole.  Both candidates rail against Dukakis; they just criticize him in different ways and for different things.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

No, I state in the scenario in the fifth sentence of the second paragraph that Jerry Brown wins the Democratic primary.

Whilst that is true, you fail to state what happens with President Dukakis. For example, whether or not he decides to seek re-election as President of the United States in 1992, or whether he loses the 1992 Democratic Primaries to the liberal Governor of California.

This isn't like a 1980 scenario

Huzzah! Yet another person who plays me for an ignorant fool. I know this is a 1992 scenario BHouston, but I was suggesting that if President Dukakis was to run for re-election in 1992 during a period of economic woes and a ongoing war overseas, that it I would find it to be remarkably similar to the RL Presidential Election of 1980. With the exception of the War in Iraq of course. Now I stated that pretty clearly in my second paragraph.

Dukakis actually loses the primary in this scenario.  So this isn't an election between Dukakis and Dole.

Well that wasn't clearly stated now was it my friend?

[bhouston79]

I'm sorry if I didn't make it clear enough that President Dukakis loses the Democratic primary and nomination to Governor Jerry Brown.  However, if you re-read paragraph two, sentence five of my original post, it states that "[l]iberal and Dovish Democrats unite behind Brown, who wins a bitterly contested primary."  I guess maybe people read that and thought that he won just one primary in one particular state as opposed to the Democratic primary in general.

But if my original post wasn't written clearly enough, I hope that this clarification makes it clear that President Dukakis (after winning the 1988 election against all odds) loses  the Democratic primary in 1992 to Jerry Brown, who runs primarily as an anti-war candidate but also criticizes Dukakis for failing to bring about health care reform and being too Centrist on economic issues.

[Workers' Friend]

Fmr. Gov. Jeery Brown/Gov. Bill Clinton - 192 EVs
Sen. Robert Dole/Fmr. Gov/ Lamar Alexander - 346 EVs

[bhouston79]

why would a political party turn away a incumbent president from renomination, despite how unpopular he is?

Well for all sorts of reasons.  Johnson decided not to seek re-election in 1968 in large part because he knew that he would have trouble winning his party's nomination due to the unpopular war in Vietnam.  Ford and Kennedy both gave sitting Presidents runs for their money in their party's primary.  Any President who goes too far off of their party's reservation could potentially be in danger.

[bhouston79]

Quote from Sapiens Unus

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I wasn't suggesting that you were being foolish or anything like that, I was just trying to make sure you understood that in this particular scenario that I invented, President Dukakis does not win his party's nomination for President.  That's what I meant by the fact that I said it's not like 1980.