Want to depress yourself further? Look at Southern precinct results!

[minionofmidas]

Louisiana readily provides them. Other states too I suppose, too lazy to search.

So far I've done all parishes beginning in a. I'll probably not continue as you'll get the drill once I'm finished with this post. Although I might do requests.

Acadia
Parishwide: McCain 72.0, Obama 26.3
8 precincts won by Obama, summed: Obama 84.8, McCain 14.5
51 precincts plus absentees and provisionals won by McCain, summed: McCain 78.7, Obama 19.5
percentage of Obama voters to vote in Obama precincts: 33.5%
percentage of McCain voters to vote in Obama precincts: 2.1%

Allen
Parishwide: McCain 66.9, Obama 30.5
6 precincts won by Obama, summed: Obama 87.2, McCain 11.9
23 precincts plus absentees and provisionals won by McCain, summed (one precinct had no votes cast): McCain 73.8, Obama 23.4
percentage of Obama voters to vote in Obama precincts: 31.9%
percentage of McCain voters to vote in Obama precincts: 2.0%

Ascension
Parishwide: McCain 67.1, Obama 31.4
16 precincts won by Obama, summed: Obama 73.2, McCain 25.6
45 precincts plus absentees and provisionals won by McCain, summed: McCain 73.9, Obama 24.5
percentage of Obama voters to vote in Obama precincts: 32.9%
percentage of McCain voters to vote in Obama precincts: 5.4%

Assumption - this one sticks out, and it seems not just due to having more Blacks
Parishwide: McCain 54.6, Obama 43.4
9 precincts plus absentees won by Obama, summed: Obama 64.2, McCain 34.5
14 precincts won by McCain, summed (no provisional votes were successfully cast in the parish): McCain 71.7, Obama 25.7
percentage of Obama voters to vote in Obama precincts: 68.1%
percentage of McCain voters to vote in Obama precincts: 29.1%

Avoyelles
Parishwide: McCain 60.4, Obama 37.4
12 precincts won by Obama, summed: Obama 67.1, McCain 31.5
33 precincts plus absentees and provisionals won by McCain, summed: McCain 71.1, Obama 26.4 (one precinct was tied. It is not included in either figure here)
percentage of Obama voters to vote in Obama precincts: 45.7%
percentage of McCain voters to vote in Obama precincts: 13.2%

[Stranger in a strange land]

Does Alabama post them? The Black Belt should be interesting, as should the Northern Appalachian region of the state.

[minionofmidas]

Does Alabama post them? The Black Belt should be interesting, as should the Northern Appalachian region of the state.

They might once they certify, I've no clue. 3 days ago the state website wouldn't even you tell when they are going to certify.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interesting that Macon County wasn't even one of Obama's top 5.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting that Macon County wasn't even one of Obama's top 5.

Sad to see the same degree of polarisation coming to Macon county as everywhere else in the Deep South, but it's not a surprise. It would be nice if it turns out not to have been quite so bad as elsewhere.

[MK]

You guys are making too big of a deal out of these numbers ( Iam concerned about LA). Most of the other southern states are not as racist as some of you are making them out to be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You guys are making too big of a deal out of these numbers ( Iam concerned about LA). Most of the other southern states are not as racist as some of you are making them out to be.

Map on the left shows % vote Obama, map on the right shows % Black as of the last census. Or was it the other way round?

Actually the giveaway (beyond the choice of colours) is the crude key used for % Black and the massive movement of Blacks into some Atlanta suburbs.

[MK]

You guys are making too big of a deal out of these numbers ( Iam concerned about LA). Most of the other southern states are not as racist as some of you are making them out to be.

Map on the left shows % vote Obama, map on the right shows % Black as of the last census. Or was it the other way round?

Actually the giveaway (beyond the choice of colours) is the crude key used for % Black and the massive movement of Blacks into some Atlanta suburbs.

His color didn't have everything to do with that map.  Sure Obama was going to win those black areas of the state. 

You guys are being unfair to voters in the south by assuming its all about race.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You guys are making too big of a deal out of these numbers ( Iam concerned about LA). Most of the other southern states are not as racist as some of you are making them out to be.

Then why did Obama win 10 and 11% of whites in Alabama and Mississippi respectively[qm]

[MK]

You guys are making too big of a deal out of these numbers ( Iam concerned about LA). Most of the other southern states are not as racist as some of you are making them out to be.

Then why did Obama win 10 and 11% of whites in Alabama and Mississippi respectively[qm]

I never said race didn't play a factor, but its not the definitive you guys are making it out to be. Theres  many different reasons for those numbers.  FDR was the last northen Liberal democrat to win in the in the south.   In 4 years if Obama can do a moderately good job at turning things around, we will see then.

[minionofmidas]

I never said race didn't play a factor, but its not the definitive you guys are making it out to be. Theres  many different reasons for those numbers.  FDR was the last northen Liberal democrat to win in the in the south.

We're assuming there is a reason for that, and it is called "racism".

[MK]

I never said race didn't play a factor, but its not the definitive you guys are making it out to be. Theres  many different reasons for those numbers.  FDR was the last northen Liberal democrat to win in the in the south.

We're assuming there is a reason for that, and it is called "racism".

Well I guess according to some - the south is just a bunch of racist bigoted people.

[minionofmidas]

I never said race didn't play a factor, but its not the definitive you guys are making it out to be. Theres  many different reasons for those numbers.  FDR was the last northen Liberal democrat to win in the in the south.

We're assuming there is a reason for that, and it is called "racism".

Well I guess according to some - the south is just a bunch of racist bigoted people.

No, that's not what I meant really.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I never said race didn't play a factor, but its not the definitive you guys are making it out to be. Theres  many different reasons for those numbers.  FDR was the last northen Liberal democrat to win in the in the south.

We're assuming there is a reason for that, and it is called "racism".

Well I guess according to some - the south is just a bunch of racist bigoted people.

Look, I understand you want to defend the South - I spent some time in SC and GA - and I met some great people. However... the evidence does suggest a much MUCH smaller proportion of the white vote in the Southern states for Obama... now let's be 100% honest here... apart from race give me one solid reason why the white vote would be less than for Kerry or Gore?

[MK]

I never said race didn't play a factor, but its not the definitive you guys are making it out to be. Theres  many different reasons for those numbers.  FDR was the last northen Liberal democrat to win in the in the south.

We're assuming there is a reason for that, and it is called "racism".

Well I guess according to some - the south is just a bunch of racist bigoted people.

Look, I understand you want to defend the South - I spent some time in SC and GA - and I met some great people. However... the evidence does suggest a much MUCH smaller proportion of the white vote in the Southern states for Obama... now let's be 100% honest here... apart from race give me one solid reason why the white vote would be less than for Kerry or Gore?

Kerry didn't do all that well here neither remember "out-of-touch ultraliberal "

Al Gore was from the south.

Obama did pretty good in the south even picked off 2 southern states and almost got Evangelical MO to boot.

To say that the folks in the south who didn't vote for Obama was because of race is not being honest, or fair in this case.  I concede you that there are "pockets" that have a racial factor ( the state of LA seems to be having problems), but overall in the south its not the full case.

The south has been republican for a while, and it has alot to do with anti libreal feeling more then race.

[minionofmidas]

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*cough* Take a look at when and how this happened. You're confusing cause and effect a little there.

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I'm not sure how many times I'll repeat it over the next four years (probably over a thousand times ) but people who voted for the party of Black voting rights a lot of the time, then balked at the prospect of actually voting for Black President, are less likely to be disgustingly racist than people who abandoned the Democrats for good, at least at the Presidential level (but, most of them if typically a little later, downballot as well) as soon as they became identified with Black voting rights.

Obama did pretty good in the south even picked off 2 southern states.

Oh, absolutely! He did great in most fast-growing Southern metro areas, better than could have been expected. And Black turnout alone certainly doesn't explain it. Parts of the South are finally coming good.
Meanwhile, he lost a sizable chunk of what there still was left to lose of traditional class based rural white Democratism. This almost certainly had something to do with his race (but also his "foreignness" etc. And his general relative appeal in more urban areas, observable everywhere outside the Upper Midwest.) but, again, see part 2 of this post.

My purpose in creating this thread was not the 2008 swings, anyhow, but the general situation that has prevailed since, oh about 1976 or so - Since Blacks have been voting at comparable rates to Whites - but especially since 2000. And especially the really remarkable aspect of these patterns, which could be summed up in the word "micro-level regional polarization". I was just demonstrating a new way of crunching the numbers and showing things.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well realistically - NC was the only real Southern State that Obama won - VA and FL really don't qualify... even if geographically.

I give you that race may not have been the only reason why Obama didnt do as well - but I don't think you can give it as small a role as you're trying to.

I mean Obama lost 9% of the white vote in AL and 6% in AR - mind you I want to make clear that I have enjoyed the time I spent with southerners.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He did great in most fast-growing Southern metro areas, better than could have been expected.

He did well in areas that had been growing very quickly in most places. I wonder how much of that is related to house price woes.

Btw, in addition to the issues already raised about his poor results in white Democratic areas in the South, a general lack of appeal in some traditional working class areas (in addition to the metropolitan-rural thing) has to be added. Some trend maps;



(pattern somewhat exaggerated around Pittsburgh by media market stuff and so on)





...etc, etc, etc...

[minionofmidas]

Ah. Not really aware of the Ohio pattern before, probably because it didn't lead to any county losses.
New York's hardly comparable though. (For fun with media markets, have a glance at Indiana.)

[MK]

Heres the problem the intellectual Liberals come in with their stats and charts saying you're a racist because you didn't vote for Obama.  Micro- analyze us southern folks as bigoted, yet its not race!  Its the issues and how liberals go about things. John Kerry was just as disliked here, hell Obama actually had somewhat of a chance in Georiga.  He won 45% of the vote in Carolina ( I didn't think he would get over 38-39% in any of those states), but I wanna be honest with you aswell - Yes we do have pockets of racism, theres no question about it.

I don't like the broad message of "the south is racist" because they didn't vote for the black guy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New York's hardly comparable though.

Not the same extent, but it's interesting to see where the lowest swings in Upstate NY were.

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Will do.

[Sbane]

Heres the problem the intellectuals Liberals come in with their stats and charts saying you're a racist because you didn't vote for Obama.  Micro- analyze us southern folks as bigoted, yet its not race!  Its the issues and how liberals go about things. John Kerry was just as disliked here, hell Obama actually had somewhat of a chance in Georiga.  He won 45% of the vote in Carolina ( I didn't think he would get over 38-39% in any of those states), but I wanna be honest with you aswell - Yes we do have pockets of racism, theres no question about it.

I don't like the broad message of "the south is racist" because they didn't vote for the black guy.

I think the swings against Obama, while the rest of the country swung towards him, is the biggest indictment of the south. Now this only applies to rural areas, and one of the reasons why we saw GA and NC swinging hard towards Obama. Most of the other swings towards Obama is explained by higher black turnout. Where the white swing against Obama shows up is in places like Tennessee and Oklahoma, where the black population is low. Still it only hurt Obama on the margins and it is unlikely he would have got much more white votes if he was named barry olsen and was white. Southerners just don't like liberals.

[MK]

Heres the problem the intellectuals Liberals come in with their stats and charts saying you're a racist because you didn't vote for Obama.  Micro- analyze us southern folks as bigoted, yet its not race!  Its the issues and how liberals go about things. John Kerry was just as disliked here, hell Obama actually had somewhat of a chance in Georiga.  He won 45% of the vote in Carolina ( I didn't think he would get over 38-39% in any of those states), but I wanna be honest with you aswell - Yes we do have pockets of racism, theres no question about it.

I don't like the broad message of "the south is racist" because they didn't vote for the black guy.

I think the swings against Obama, while the rest of the country swung towards him, is the biggest indictment of the south. Now this only applies to rural areas, and one of the reasons why we saw GA and NC swinging hard towards Obama. Most of the other swings towards Obama is explained by higher black turnout. Where the white swing against Obama shows up is in places like Tennessee and Oklahoma, where the black population is low. Still it only hurt Obama on the margins and it is unlikely he would have got much more white votes if he was named barry olsen and was white. Southerners just don't like liberals.

My whole point.  A Democrat can win in the south if we brings the right types of views with him. Bill Clinton was able to be a moderate or atleast pretend in 92'  and won a few southern states.  The Bill Clinton of today Probably couldn't carry any of those states he did in 1992 and we saw them trend back gop in 96'.

[Sbane]

Heres the problem the intellectuals Liberals come in with their stats and charts saying you're a racist because you didn't vote for Obama.  Micro- analyze us southern folks as bigoted, yet its not race!  Its the issues and how liberals go about things. John Kerry was just as disliked here, hell Obama actually had somewhat of a chance in Georiga.  He won 45% of the vote in Carolina ( I didn't think he would get over 38-39% in any of those states), but I wanna be honest with you aswell - Yes we do have pockets of racism, theres no question about it.

I don't like the broad message of "the south is racist" because they didn't vote for the black guy.

I think the swings against Obama, while the rest of the country swung towards him, is the biggest indictment of the south. Now this only applies to rural areas, and one of the reasons why we saw GA and NC swinging hard towards Obama. Most of the other swings towards Obama is explained by higher black turnout. Where the white swing against Obama shows up is in places like Tennessee and Oklahoma, where the black population is low. Still it only hurt Obama on the margins and it is unlikely he would have got much more white votes if he was named barry olsen and was white. Southerners just don't like liberals.

My whole point.  A Democrat can win in the south if we brings the right types of views with him. Bill Clinton was able to be a moderate or atleast pretend in 92'  and won a few southern states.  The Bill Clinton of today Probably couldn't carry any of those states he did in 1992 and we saw them trend back gop in 96'.

Yes a national democrat who wants to win a primary must move left on social issues, and that is toxic in the south. The only exceptions would be the urban areas where people from all over the country are in the mix. This is why Obama won NC and why he could keep it close in GA.

[MK]

There has been some suggestions that the Dems should move there first caucus ( Iowa) to be a southern state.