2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

Besides the SPÖ-catastrophe, the failure of the Vorarlberg-BZÖ is also remarkable.

No wonder, considering these campaign posters:



(To German speakers: Do you find the epic mistake they made ?)

[minionofmidas]

Oh dear. Taking care of Vorarlbergers' Carinthia for them. Well, that's nice of the Carinthian State Government Party.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Maybe the FPÖ make this posters against BZÖ

[Tender Branson]

Map of the "Right" (ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ) by town:



4 shades:

60-70% (only 3 cities: Bregenz, Bürs, Bludenz)
70-80%
80-90%
90%+ (mostly in the center-right and north of the map)

This is how the Austrian Utah looks like ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

Notice the more "liberal" areas next to the Autobahn !



Why are people near the Autobahn less conservative ?

[minionofmidas]

Because the Autobahn runs through the populated areas.

[Tender Branson]

Always interesting, the Vorarlberg EXIT POLL (1.038 people polled):

Vote by Gender:

Women: 60% ÖVP, 16% FPÖ, 13% Greens, 8% SPÖ
Men: 45% ÖVP, 31% FPÖ, 10% Greens, 10% SPÖ

Vote by Age:

below 30: 34% FPÖ, 34% ÖVP, 18% Greens, 9% SPÖ
30-59: 55% ÖVP, 21% FPÖ, 11% Greens, 10% SPÖ
60 and older: 63% ÖVP, 23% FPÖ, 10% SPÖ, 4% Greens

Vote by Age and Gender:

Women below 30: 40% ÖVP, 23% FPÖ, 21% Greens, 10% SPÖ
Women 30-59: 61% ÖVP, 15% FPÖ, 14% Greens, 8% SPÖ
Women 60 and older: 70% ÖVP, 15% FPÖ, 9% SPÖ, 5% Greens

Men below 30: 41% FPÖ, 30% ÖVP, 16% Greens, 9% SPÖ
Men 30-59: 50% ÖVP, 26% FPÖ, 11% SPÖ, 9% Greens
Men 60 and older: 53% ÖVP, 31% FPÖ, 12% SPÖ, 3% Greens

Vote by Occupation:

Worker (Blue-Collar): 37% ÖVP, 33% FPÖ, 21% SPÖ, 4% Greens
Employee (White-Collar): 54% ÖVP, 25% FPÖ, 10% Greens, 6% SPÖ
Self-employed/Farmer: 49% ÖVP, 28% FPÖ, 10% Greens, 8% SPÖ
Retired: 61% ÖVP, 22% FPÖ, 11% SPÖ, 5% Greens

"The statements of FPÖ-frontrunner Dieter Egger were antisemitic"

50% Agree
42% Disagree

By party:

ÖVP: 62% Agree, 32% Disagree
FPÖ: 19% Agree, 75% Disagree
Greens: 78% Agree, 21% Disagree
SPÖ: 56% Agree, 31% Disagree
Non-Voters: 46% Agree, 41% Disagree

How would you rate the direction of Austria ?

53% going in the right direction
32% going in the wrong direction

How would you rate the direction of Vorarlberg ?

70% going in the right direction
20% going in the wrong direction

[Tender Branson]

Habsburg family demands right to seek Austrian presidency

Members of the Habsburg-Lorraine dynasty that ruled the Austro-Hungarian Empire have asked for the right to run for the Austrian presidency.

Rudolf Vouk, their lawyer, said the family has lodged a request for the repeal of a 90-year-old ban that prohibits its members from being elected Austria's head of state.

"Such a disposition is no longer justifiable and contravenes the right to free and democratic elections" as well as the principle of equality before the law, Mr Vouk said.

The family's application to end the ban - a year before Austria's next presidential elections - was filed with the constitutional council, with a copy sent to Werner Faymann, the Austrian Chancellor.

The Habsburgs ruled the Holy Roman Empire from 1438 to 1806, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire from 1867 until its demise in 1918 with defeat in the First World War.

Since the proclamation of the Austrian republic in November 1918 and the abolition of the aristocracy, the family has been prohibited from contesting the position of head of state.

"After 90 years, the republic can start to have a bit more distant relationship with history," said Mr Vouk, who is representing Ulrich Habsburg-Lorraine, a Green councillor in Carinthia state.

The Austrian presidency - now held by Heinz Fischer, a Social Democrat elected in 2004 - is largely ceremonial, but carries significant moral authority.

Habsburg-Lorraine is a relative of Otto von Habsburg, the former crown prince who, in 1979, took German citizenship in order to be eligible to fight in the European elections, having renounced his claim to the throne.

For 20 years he represented Germany at the European Union and was a champion of the unpopular view that the EU should expand eastwards.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/austria/6198317/Habsburg-family-demands-right-to-seek-Austrian-presidency.html

There's also a new OGM poll out about this issue:

58% favor an end to the prohibition
23% favor the status-quo

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20090923_OTS0136

[Tender Branson]

Upper Austria state elections tomorrow:

FPÖ-leader H.C. Strache was helping out the new FPÖ-front-runner in OÖ today in the final campaigning saying there's not an Ausländerproblem here, but rather a Türkenproblem. Then he mocked a turkish criminal in broken German who's attacking an Austrian. He said these "Turkish brothers with the knife" (from the word Radaubrüder I guess) need to be thrown out of the country immediately. This is mainly the reason why the Austrian youth is so right-wing these days. Because they are attacked by these wild Turkish youth when they are out in the evening and Strache knows this: "Those who own the Youth, owns the future ! Give us 10 years and we will be the strongest party ! It's not God-given that SPÖ and ÖVP have rank 1 & 2 in elections. You have seen what happened in Vorarlberg. We are back !" and "If I have something to say we`ll kick out drug-dealers and criminal asylum-seekers who exploit the welfare system." he said in front of 6.000 people.

Anyway I predict:

ÖVP: 40% (-3)
SPÖ: 28% (-10)
FPÖ: 20% (+12)
Greens: 8% (-1)
BZÖ: 3% (+3)
Others: 1% (nc)

Turnout: ~ 80%

[Tender Branson]

State Elections in Upper Austria today. Polls are already open and they close at 4pm local time (10am Eastern), with Exit Polls following suit. 1.086.327 persons aged 16+ are allowed to vote.

There are 7 lists:

 1. Österreichische Volkspartei - Liste Landeshauptmann Dr. Josef Pühringer (ÖVP)
 2. Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ)
 3. Die Grünen - Die Grüne Alternative (GRÜNE)
 4. Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ)
 5. BZÖ - Liste Uschi Haubner (BZÖ)
 6. Die Christen Oberösterreich (DC-OÖ)
 7. Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (KPÖ)

In 2003 the results were:

ÖVP: 43.4%
SPÖ: 38.3%
Greens: 9.1%
FPÖ: 8.4%
KPÖ: 0.8%

Turnout: 79%

The BZÖ and the Christians are running for the first time in the state and I expect turnout to be around 80%. There's good voting weather today.

I expect a strong turn to the Right this time, with the Right (ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ/DC-OÖ) getting about 60-65% of the vote (see my prediction above).

[Tender Branson]

Exit Polls in 5 minutes.

ORF 2 Live-Stream here:

mms://apasf.apa.at/ORFLive4a

[Tender Branson]

16:00 EXIT POLL:

ÖVP: 47.1% (+3.7%)
SPÖ: 24.1% (-14.2%)
FPÖ: 16.0% (+7.5%)
Greens: 9.0% (-0.1%)
BZÖ: 3.0% (+3.0%)
Others: 0.8%

Ouch !

[Hash]

Nice to see the FPÖ poll slightly lower than expected.

[Tender Branson]

Nice to see the FPÖ poll slightly lower than expected.

Yeah that is good to see, but the SPÖ is now absolutely destroyed and has lost every election since Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) took office.

SPÖ-frontrunner Haider is likely to step down now, he said in a first interview.

[Franzl]

Good results.

Good that the conservatives are so strong and that the FPÖ is slightly worse than expected.

[Tender Branson]

BTW: Turnout is 81%, up from 79% in 2003.

[Tender Branson]

Here are the results (154 of 444 cities already counted):

http://wahl.land-oberoesterreich.gv.at/whlp/WHLPErgebnisEingelangtNEU.jsp?newPath=J&wahlNameKurz=L09

[Tender Branson]

Cool, FPÖ does not win St.Georgen am Fillmannsbach !

ÖVP: 45.2% (+4.1)
FPÖ: 43.4% (+1.1)
SPÖ: 4.3%
BZÖ: 3.6%
Greens: 2.9%

[Tender Branson]

With 17% of the votes counted, the Right (ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ/DC) has 75%.

[Hash]

Any results for Branau-am-Inn yet?

[Tender Branson]

Any results for Branau-am-Inn yet?

37 of 46 cities in the district are counted (but not the main city of Braunau, which is a leftist stronghold):

ÖVP: 53.6% (nc)
FPÖ: 18.4% (+8 )
SPÖ: 18.4% (-11)
Greens: 6.0% (+1)
BZÖ: 2.8% (+3)

[Tender Branson]

Latest projection:

ÖVP: 46.8 (+3.4)
SPÖ: 25.0 (-13.3)
FPÖ: 15.1 (+6.7)
Greens: 9.2 (+0.1)
BZÖ: 2.9 (+2.9)
Others: 1.0 (+0.2)

331 of 444 cities now counted.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

In the actual vote count, the FPÖ is just at 15.3% right now but leftist strongholds and big cities like Linz, Wels, Steyr are still left to count. Could this mean they will get down to 14% ?

[Tender Branson]

Any results for Branau-am-Inn yet?

Are you interested in Mauthausen too ?

SPÖ: 44.5% (-12.3%)
ÖVP: 33.2% (+2.8%)
FPÖ: 13.1% (+8.4%)
Greens: 6.6% (-1.0%)
BZÖ: 2.0% (+2.0%)

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ wins only 1 city so far (Steinhaus):

FPÖ: 39.3%
ÖVP: 38.6%
SPÖ: 13.5%
Greens: 6.4%
BZÖ: 1.8%