Robert J. Dole/George H.W. Bush (R): 303 EVJames E. Carter/Walter F. Mondale (D): 235 EVWhilst I believe that Senator Dole would be able to defeat incumbent President Jimmy Carter in the Presidential Election of 1980, I can assure you that his victory over the incumbent President would not have been as grand as Reagan's RL victory, thus I find such an electoral college map, as seen above would have been more likely.
With the moderate-conservative Senator Dole as the Republicans nominee, President Carter would take most of the South with the exceptions of Texas and Virginia. President Carter would also win the Northern states that he won back in 1976 (New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Rhode Island). Carter in my mind would also be able to pick up Washington and Oregon.