5 most likely people to become the 45th POTUS?

[izixs]

So we got sort of 3 ways the 45th president will become such: 1. Obama resigns/perishes in office (which as a supporter of his I'd like to avoid), 2. someone defeats Obama in 2012, 3. Obama wins in 2012 and someone wins in 2016 meaning the US has not been destroyed by aliens yet.

For 1, I don't actually see that as very likely. The secret service are much better these days than they were in decades past and they've kept Obama safe so far. I also don't see him being silly enough to get into a major scandal that would force resignation. And major health concerns are unlikely at his age.

So then for 2... From my perceptions, one of the reasons GWB was able to win in 2000 and 2004 was relying on people to vote on social issues and national security. As this year demonstrated, economic issues can trump social issues by far, and to a certain extent national security. In 4 years one of three things is likely to of happened with the economy. A. The economy has rebounded and happy days are back again (Obama seen as a good president so more likely to be re-elected baring any major issue foibles), B. The economy has kind of recovered by things are not easy still (Obama could be in trouble, but can easily depict the plan as not being complete and his opponent as wanting to turn the clock back to 2008/9 so slim advantage Obama but Obama could be crushed if the republican is seen as a more competant economic manager), C. The economy still sucks or worse (Obama likely to loose but only to someone not seen as reckless economically). The conditions where Obama looses then points towards a republican who is either seen as more capable of fixing the economy than Obama or Obama fixes the economy but really screws up another area of national policy. This would suggest either a pragmatic business centric republican or possibly a national security centric republican. Social issue centric republicans would probably flounder with the possible exception of a Huckabee like person giving the finger to the low taxes/no social programs crowd in the GOP and embracing Obamomics.

So 3. 2016 is a ways off. This means that either a young politician of other party (possibly someone we never heard of) is going to get it, or a well respected elder states-person is going to get it. If the Obama economy wins or looses is irrelevant as it will be a new slate of candidates which means new spin.


So what does this mean for my prediction?

Well as there's a huge universe of candidates out there, I think I'll play it safe and just do the roles a candidate of that ranking is most likely to of played. Fill in the name you think is most appropriate. I'll make a stab at them after this list.

1. Youngish up and coming Democrat
2. Youngish up and coming Republican
3. National security centric Republican
4. Competent nationally known Democrat
5. Economically sound centrist Republican

So who do I see filling the roles?

1. Paul of the Hodes
2. Pawlenty of the frozen north
3. David Patreaus (savior or Iraq?)
4. Kathleen Sebelius, prairie wanderer
5. Mittens of Romney


As for other possibilities...
8. Biden of the Joe's
10. Hillary Clinton, the Revenge
25. Sarah of Wasilla
35134. Freddy the Tomp's sons.