Day 37-Oregon

[Alcon]

Finally, orange.



Orange
These are counties with one city that significantly brings the county average closer.  They vary from college towns in Benton County (Corvallis), Lane County (Eugene) to the state capital in Marion County (Salem), to the semi-college town moderated Deschutes County (Bend).    There's also Jefferson County (Madras), which isn't a big city, but is a town that brings the county to much more moderate politics.

[Erc]

Ashland isn't too surprising...saw more modern-day hippies there (Jul 2004) than I've seen anywhere else in the country.

[bgwah]

lol @ alcon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashland,_Oregon

[bejkuy]

Great Analysis Alcon.

Even though I lived in Oregon the majority of my life, I thoroughly enjoyed reading what you had to say. 

Regarding the question of why curry county was more Rep than coos county I have these thoughts. 

Coos county has a very large Weyerhauser (timber company) presence.  Most Weyerhauser employees are union. 

The majority of timber industry workers in Lane and Coos county are union.  Roseburg forest products, the biggest employer in Douglas county is non-union.  Most of the mills in the republican counties are independant and non-union.

This trend holds in Washington as well.  The two counties with the highest percentage of Weyerhauser employees (not white collar) are Pacific and Gray's Harbor counties, both solidly Democrat and also the only counties to vote for Jimmy carter in 1980.  Cowlitz county has quite a few union forest products industry employees as well and votes accordingly. 

Lewis county, where I live has an active timber industry but most outfits are independant.  Lewis county was 64% rep in 2004.

Regarding Salem, Marion county (OR): I believe continues to be Republican because of it's higher than average (for oregon) church attendance.  By demographics, Salem should vote like Eugene.  (lots of government employees, universities).  I've lived in both towns and I don't know the exact figures, but I know that there are FAR more churches in Salem than Eugene (similar sized cities) and the the local culture is much more socially conservative.

[Alcon]

bejkuy,

Thank you for your insightful reply.  I never thought of union differences as being the primary reasons that Lewis County and Curry County are so GOP.  That makes sense now.

Regarding Marion County, it is also worth considering that only a sliver over half of the population resides in incorporated Salem.  On the other hand, 60% of Lane County's population lives in Eugene or Springfield, and 63% of Benton County's population is within the bounds of incorporated Corvallis.  The outlaying agricultural towns, generally conservative, having a higher share of the vote might also be a factor, in addition to church attendance.

Unfortunately, I won't know how Salem voted until Marion County sends their precinct location breakdown, which should be sometime next week.  I'll post it when I get it.

Again, thanks for your comments.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC a religious minority group (Mormons? I think so but I'm not really sure...) are strong in Curry county.

[minionofmidas]

Regarding Marion County, it is also worth considering that only a sliver over half of the population resides in incorporated Salem.  On the other hand, 60% of Lane County's population lives in Eugene or Springfield, and 63% of Benton County's population is within the bounds of incorporated Corvallis. 

Yeah, I noticed that when I did those 100K districts. Outer Lane county is pretty much empty. Marion County has people everywhere. I wonder actually if the area can be reasonably described (in parts) as being far exurban Portland - which would of course also explain why it votes Republican.

[Alcon]

Regarding Marion County, it is also worth considering that only a sliver over half of the population resides in incorporated Salem.  On the other hand, 60% of Lane County's population lives in Eugene or Springfield, and 63% of Benton County's population is within the bounds of incorporated Corvallis. 

Yeah, I noticed that when I did those 100K districts. Outer Lane county is pretty much empty. Marion County has people everywhere. I wonder actually if the area can be reasonably described (in parts) as being far exurban Portland - which would of course also explain why it votes Republican.

I suppose it depends on the city.  Places like Aurora and Donald have a large number of commuters and are fairly well-off.  However, even in the north, there are parts with a few commuters but are somewhat economically depressed, such as Hubbard.

Interestingly, there is a large number of people living in incorporated rural CDPs, such as Hayesville and Four Corners, both of which have more than 15,000 people.  My guess is that those areas are what makes the county so Republican.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I remember Walter saying it was trending Republican and the Gore state most likely to flip.

oregon was trending republican from 88-2000.

the dems bounced back a little in 04.

my oregon fantasies are saner than you dems thinking you have a shot in virginia.

Blah blah

[pbrower2a]

How could Obama lose Oregon? Only with a catastrophic Presidency. Some people expect such on ideological grounds -- which reminds me of liberals in 1981 expecting Ronald Reagan to have a one-term Presidency.

Oregon has gone from a liberal Republican state to a liberal Democratic state, and it is best now understood as the sort of Democratic state that would now vote for the Republican nominee for President only in a Reagan-scale landslide.

Its population is heavily concentrated in urban and suburban areas which voted for Obama in almost all regions of the United States. It has relatively liberal attitudes on 'social' values and is not a haven for the Religious Right.   

[Rob]

Oregon has gone from a liberal Republican state to a liberal Democratic state, and it is best now understood as the sort of Democratic state that would now vote for the Republican nominee for President only in a Reagan-scale landslide.

Yup, although honestly I think Reagan would get smoked here today (if he were alive and eligible to run, etc). To put it another way, no one under the age of 24 has seen this beautiful place vote Republican in their lifetime.

[Aizen]

Might Oregon soon be more Democratic than Washington? Oregon trended more towards Obama than Washington this election.


Kerry won WA by 7, Obama by 17
Kerry won OR by 4, Obama by 16

[justfollowingtheelections]

I remember Walter saying it was trending Republican and the Gore state most likely to flip.

oregon was trending republican from 88-2000.

the dems bounced back a little in 04.

my oregon fantasies are saner than you dems thinking you have a shot in virginia.

I just love how liberal the West Coast has become

[Landslide Lyndon]

I just love how liberal the West Coast has become

You can thank Jerry Fallwell and James Dobson for that.