2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Tender Branson]

About 175,000 people have already voted through the state’s well publicized new vote-by-mail program.

Somerset County Clerk Bret Radi, who as county clerk section chief is responsible for coordinating the statewide information on the program, called it a success.

“Our collective efforts have made this transition smooth and successful for voters," he said. 

The totals are well below the number of absentee ballots submitted in 2008, when 255,321 New Jersey residents voted by mail.  But that was a presidential year, where many more residents typically vote than in gubernatorial elections.

“I honestly don’t know the expectations that the parties set for themselves.  As far as my expectations for my particular county, I personally didn’t expect to do as many as we did in last year’s presidential election,” said Radi.

The new program allows registered voters to cast their ballots without citing a reason.  In the last gubernatorial election, absentee ballots were still restricted to those who, for one reason or another, could not make it to the polls on election day.  And while those conditions were dropped last year, the new law loosens regulations for designating someone a messenger.

Radi did not do a statewide comparison to 2005, but the number of vote-by-mail ballots has doubled since then in his own county.  In 2005, he said, 3,800 Somerset County voters cast their ballots by mail.  As of October 27 of this year, 7,223 had. 

Two counties have actually seen more vote-by-mail ballots submitted than last year.  In Hudson County, where Democrats have been promoting the program heavily, 10,610 people have already voted – up from 8,922 at this point last year.  And in Cumberland County, 4,314 people have already voted – up from 3,946 last year.

Camden County, which like Hudson is an important get out the vote county for Democrats, is trailing its 2008 totals by a small margin -- 12,223 have voted there so far, compared to 13,485 at this point last year.

The deadline to apply for vote-by-mail ballots was on Tuesday, but residents can still vote at their county clerk’s office until Monday at 3pm.

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34603/175000-vote-mail

[Rowan]

SUSA: All Tied Up

Christie 43%
Corzine 43%
Daggett 11%

[Meeker]

Daggett campaign has turned into an epic fail. It's a shame as I would've liked to have seen what their max ceiling would've been.

[Bacon King]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/man-vs-machine-in-new-jersey.html

[Sam Spade]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/man-vs-machine-in-new-jersey.html

My problem is that if the "enthusiasm gap" is the key distinction between man and machine here, then why wouldn't such a gap have shown up in past usages of automated polling. 

Moreover, early this year (say before June), one would posit that it would have been liberals enthused and not conservatives, after Obama's election.  Yet this was precisely the time when the gap between IVR and live interviewers was strong in Obama's approvals.  This was the case, even if you exclude Rasmussen, with his LV model, and focus on SUSA and PPP.

Additionally, I would point out that SUSA has a very loose LV model and all of its approval polls are adults (which should naturally have a Democratic lean).  PPP's weights are Democratic-leaning (insofar as Rasmussen's are probably the opposite.

Anyway, with the final polls in NJ to be conducted this weekend (I presume), we should get a picture where we can analyze what's going on after the election.

[Sam Spade]

Daggett campaign has turned into an epic fail. It's a shame as I would've liked to have seen what their max ceiling would've been.

10 will get you 20, Daggett finishes with under 10%.

[East Coast Republican]

I want to make an interesting point.

Every poll that has had Corzine in the lead so far has either been known to have extreme bias or an observable polling flaw EXCEPT one: Fairleigh Dickinson.  Meanwhile, polls that have shown Christie ahead usually have very good track records BUT one of them usually overestimates Republican positions in statewide races occasionallyWhile they have had lower results for Christie throughout this race, I haven't seen any noticeable bias from them over the course of this election or in the past...but I also don't know much about Fairleigh Dickinson polling.

So, the DailyKos poll showing Christie ahead by 1 shocked me to say the least.  I don't know what is going on with these pollsters but they have been so varied that we don't have a clear picture heading into election day.

I'm going to write my longest most serious post here.  This is not a small feat and will probably be one of few times that I do this so you guys should read it...or don't read it and sue me in fantasy elections I don't care.

NYTimes Poll-Corzine +3.

Speaks for itself...the NYTimes is the same pollster that showed Obama up by 11% or 15% at different times in 2008.  I don't trust them and nobody here should.  Somebody give me a good reason to trust them and I will.

Suffolk Poll-Corzine +9

OK...does anybody even question that this poll is a huge outlier.  What's up with the 16 poll choices?

GQR-Democracy Corps-Corzine +5

Carville has consistently shown Corzine performing better throughout this entire race starting back in August when this pollster entered the field in NJ.  Additionally, Carville has donated a substantial amount to Corzine's reelection campaign.  Can you say conflict of interest?!

Qunnipiac-Corzine +5

Check out the internals-basically Christie loses a bit of Republicans, Corzine gains in Democrats, Christie increases his lead on indies from 11 to 15...and falls 6 points to be behind by 5 points.  What?  Oversampling Democrats OR are Democrats actually this enthusiastic?  Out of all the polls showing Corzine ahead, this could be the one that has the most substance despite their change in methodology so close to the election

Rutgers-Corzine +3

Yeah I'm not even going to waste time on this one.

POLLS THAT HAVE CHRISTIE LEADING

You didn't think I was going to leave the Republican out did you??  

Rasmussen Reports-Christie +3

OK-looks good but they never release their internals.  Or do they?  If not, what's up with that Scotty?!  Also, more often then that, Rasmussen tends to overestimate Republicans in races.

SurveyUSA-TIED

Honestly, I don't follow these guys but nice internals unlike Rasmussen.  I read today they may have a Republican bias.  Do they??

DailyKos-Christie +1!?!?

Amazing to say the least.  They also had Obama killing McCain throughout the election but then manipulated the numbers at the end to save face.  I think they actually fudge numbers and their poll samples and internals are wack!

PPP-Christie +4

Hands down, these are the best guys out there polling NJ.  Great internals...great LV screens...almost perfect.  I have no problems with them.  They may be a Democratic pollster but they don't manipulate numbers because they are ETHICAL.




OK, so we have all these polls with all these flaws and biased ways...I say Rasmussen and PPP are to be trusted the most and it is not because they show Christie in the lead.  PPP is very open about what they do and Rasmussen is skilled at polling NJ but they did drop a dud in the 2006 Senate race.  OOPS guess we can only trust PPP...NOT.  Point of long post: these polls sucks.  I have no idea who's going to win.  I wrote this because I was tired of not seeing anybody go in depth about this but mainly because I wanted to point out the highly questionable nature of the polls that show Corzine pulling away.  Come on you guys, we have one set of polls going in one direction and another going in another direction.  I really hope on Monday there's a whole new set of polls and they are unified but I doubt it.

[xavier110]

The thing about PPP's poll was that their Daggett voters, by a good margin, favored Corzine, and Daggett's support is crumbling as we approach election day.

But who knows?

I'm inclined to think it'll be a nail-biter. We might not know the winner for a few days.

[Rowan]

Corzine gaffe?

http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2009/10/a_corzine_gaffe_on_tolls.html

[Tender Branson]

SUSA: All Tied Up

Christie 43%
Corzine 43%
Daggett 11%

I like that 9/10% of those who already voted are still "undecided" ... LOL.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0dff89de-f9ae-45f8-a478-f668b831d636

[Tender Branson]

DailyKos-Christie +1!?!?

Amazing to say the least.  They also had Obama killing McCain throughout the election but then manipulated the numbers at the end to save face.  I think they actually fudge numbers and their poll samples and internals are wack!

61% Indies, 26% DEMs, 13% Republicans.

Not going to happen.

If we reweight their numbers to a more likely 45-30-25 Democratic split, you get:

Corzine: 45%
Christie: 41%
Daggett: 12%

[East Coast Republican]

This reweighting stuff you apply to every poll is interesting.

I remember you used to do the same trick to the early polls from Virginia back in the summer.  'If we reweight Deeds is ahead.'  It's like you just say those things to further your favorite candidate in a race.

Kos is a horrible poster and I'm not going to accept their numbers as the final say in this race or your 'more likely' splits.  If this keeps up for the next couple of days we may all have to just see what's going to happen on election day.  If there's one thing about this race so far, it's that more likely splits have been the exception and not the norm.

[Meeker]

This reweighting stuff you apply to every poll is interesting.

I remember you used to do the same trick to the early polls from Virginia back in the summer.  'If we reweight Deeds is ahead.'  It's like you just say those things to further your favorite candidate in a race.

Kos is a horrible poster and I'm not going to accept their numbers as the final say in this race or your 'more likely' splits.  If this keeps up for the next couple of days we may all have to just see what's going to happen on election day.  If there's one thing about this race so far, it's that more likely splits have been the exception and not the norm.

lol

First off, Kos isn't polling. He's hiring an already well-respected polling company to do it for him.

Secondly, take a look at their track record in 2008. They were easily one of the better pollsters.

[Rowan]

FDU:

Christie 41%
Corzine 39%
Daggett 14%

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/finaldays/final.pdf

[Rowan]

Go here and vote for NJ, it just fell behind Maine.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Holmes]

You actually made me vote for Maine. Not that it matters, since people care more about a teabagger in North Country, anyway.

[CARLHAYDEN]

An absolutely amazing campaign.

Corzine has been a lousy Governor, but a skilled campaigner who is willing to spend, spend, spend and attack, attack, attack (well, understandably he doesn't want to talk about his record).

Christie has been a pathetic campaigner.  He expected to get elected by being 'not Corzine.'  Well, that may still work, but, lets face it, he's an empty suit.

Daggett came along, both being 'not Corzine' and having more substance (policy wise) that Christie.

Normally, as the final weeks of the campaign progress, respondents who stated they were supporting an independent candidate, 'come home' to one of the major party candidates.  This year, support for the major party candidates appears to be lower than it was a month ago!

I still think that Christie will get elected, but with only approximately 44% of the vote.  This may end up being a lower percentage than the losing Democrat candidate for Governor in Virginia!

Note to Republican party kingmakers: Save the turkeys for Thanksgiving, and stop nominating them!

[Sam Spade]

DailyKos-Christie +1!?!?

Amazing to say the least.  They also had Obama killing McCain throughout the election but then manipulated the numbers at the end to save face.  I think they actually fudge numbers and their poll samples and internals are wack!

61% Indies, 26% DEMs, 13% Republicans.

Not going to happen.

If we reweight their numbers to a more likely 45-30-25 Democratic split, you get:

Corzine: 45%
Christie: 41%
Daggett: 12%

When the polling sample is *that* different, reweighting is basically a fruitless exercise and will probably distort a result because of the MOE of the subsamples.

Sometimes you just have to take a questionable poll for what it is or ignore it altogether.

[Eraserhead]

FDU:

Christie 41%
Corzine 39%
Daggett 14%

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/finaldays/final.pdf

When Daggett isn't volunteered as an option...

Corzine 44%
Christie 43%
Daggett 6%

I honestly have no clue who's going to win this thing.

[Eraserhead]

An absolutely amazing campaign.

Corzine has been a lousy Governor, but a skilled campaigner who is willing to spend, spend, spend and attack, attack, attack (well, understandably he doesn't want to talk about his record).

Christie has been a pathetic campaigner.  He expected to get elected by being 'not Corzine.'  Well, that may still work, but, lets face it, he's an empty suit.

Daggett came along, both being 'not Corzine' and having more substance (policy wise) that Christie.

Normally, as the final weeks of the campaign progress, respondents who stated they were supporting an independent candidate, 'come home' to one of the major party candidates.  This year, support for the major party candidates appears to be lower than it was a month ago!

I still think that Christie will get elected, but with only approximately 44% of the vote.  This may end up being a lower percentage than the losing Democrat candidate for Governor in Virginia!

Note to Republican party kingmakers: Save the turkeys for Thanksgiving, and stop nominating them!

So are you actually supporting Daggett?

[CARLHAYDEN]

An absolutely amazing campaign.

Corzine has been a lousy Governor, but a skilled campaigner who is willing to spend, spend, spend and attack, attack, attack (well, understandably he doesn't want to talk about his record).

Christie has been a pathetic campaigner.  He expected to get elected by being 'not Corzine.'  Well, that may still work, but, lets face it, he's an empty suit.

Daggett came along, both being 'not Corzine' and having more substance (policy wise) that Christie.

Normally, as the final weeks of the campaign progress, respondents who stated they were supporting an independent candidate, 'come home' to one of the major party candidates.  This year, support for the major party candidates appears to be lower than it was a month ago!

I still think that Christie will get elected, but with only approximately 44% of the vote.  This may end up being a lower percentage than the losing Democrat candidate for Governor in Virginia!

Note to Republican party kingmakers: Save the turkeys for Thanksgiving, and stop nominating them!

So are you actually supporting Daggett?

No.

It would be an improvement of the voters of New Jersey had an option of "None of the Above."

New Jersey would be better off with no Governor than the clowns competing for that office.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

An absolutely amazing campaign.

Corzine has been a lousy Governor, but a skilled campaigner who is willing to spend, spend, spend and attack, attack, attack (well, understandably he doesn't want to talk about his record).

Christie has been a pathetic campaigner.  He expected to get elected by being 'not Corzine.'  Well, that may still work, but, lets face it, he's an empty suit.

Daggett came along, both being 'not Corzine' and having more substance (policy wise) that Christie.

Normally, as the final weeks of the campaign progress, respondents who stated they were supporting an independent candidate, 'come home' to one of the major party candidates.  This year, support for the major party candidates appears to be lower than it was a month ago!

I still think that Christie will get elected, but with only approximately 44% of the vote.  This may end up being a lower percentage than the losing Democrat candidate for Governor in Virginia!

Note to Republican party kingmakers: Save the turkeys for Thanksgiving, and stop nominating them!

So are you actually supporting Daggett?

No.

It would be an improvement of the voters of New Jersey had an option of "None of the Above."

New Jersey would be better off with no Governor than the clowns competing for that office.

So, if you lived in NJ who would you vote for?

[Eraserhead]

New Rasmussen is Christie +3, unchanged from the last poll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor

[CARLHAYDEN]

An absolutely amazing campaign.

Corzine has been a lousy Governor, but a skilled campaigner who is willing to spend, spend, spend and attack, attack, attack (well, understandably he doesn't want to talk about his record).

Christie has been a pathetic campaigner.  He expected to get elected by being 'not Corzine.'  Well, that may still work, but, lets face it, he's an empty suit.

Daggett came along, both being 'not Corzine' and having more substance (policy wise) that Christie.

Normally, as the final weeks of the campaign progress, respondents who stated they were supporting an independent candidate, 'come home' to one of the major party candidates.  This year, support for the major party candidates appears to be lower than it was a month ago!

I still think that Christie will get elected, but with only approximately 44% of the vote.  This may end up being a lower percentage than the losing Democrat candidate for Governor in Virginia!

Note to Republican party kingmakers: Save the turkeys for Thanksgiving, and stop nominating them!

So are you actually supporting Daggett?

No.

It would be an improvement of the voters of New Jersey had an option of "None of the Above."

New Jersey would be better off with no Governor than the clowns competing for that office.

So, if you lived in NJ who would you vote for?

Kaplan

[© tweed]

a corner of my conscience is nagging, begging me to place a nice sum on Christie's Intrade contract, which is paying almost 2:1 post-fees.