2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't think its over, but only because (lest we forget) this is New Jersey we're talking about.  That said, for Corzine to win Christie would have to completely impload about two months before the election, and Christie is no Thomas Kean Jr.  

[Zarn]

In all honesty its pretty much over

Wow. No.

Yeah, it is. This is a 'reset' year.

Please prove me wrong. Please. I'm begging you. 

Look at the polls. Corzine was only ahead in two, and that wasn't since January. Christie has a 10 point lead with over 50%. It's over. The people who are not quite sure about voting for Christie will either vote for him anyway, vote 3rd party or independent, or stay home. Corzine is just not a choice.

Even Obama is below 60% approval in at least one poll here, now. He can't save Corzine. He will only make himself less popular. Of course not intervening keeps Obama's numbers sturdy in NJ, for now.

I find it amazing that people are so "smart" to think that people living in New Jersey don't know what the New Jersey trends are. I'm a social scientist. I know New Jersey's freakin' trends. Yeesh!

[DownWithTheLeft]

Now this folks... this is embarrassing:

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(Political Wire)

CORZINE TO NJ: I NO LONGER WANT TO WIN

[DownWithTheLeft]

Almost negligible?   Perhaps for now, but I think there will a percentage of people who are lukewarm Christie supporters and think "is this guy for real with this pick?"

Christie does not really need any new supporters he just needs to sure up ones he has.  Call me crazy but I honestly think he is going to break 55%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oh, Jesus H. Christ.

Maybe that third-party guy will break 10% now.

[Keystone Phil]

In all honesty its pretty much over

Wow. No.

Yeah, it is. This is a 'reset' year.

Please prove me wrong. Please. I'm begging you. 

Look at the polls.

Jesus Christ on the cross...

It's July.

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LOL yeah, ok.

The fact that people are almost totally ignoring the power of the NJ Dem machine and the fact that the NJ GOP is still weak amazes me.

[Zarn]

I'm sorry. I forgot you were a bigger expert on a state than people who actually engage in politics there.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm sorry. I forgot you were a bigger expert on a state than people who actually engage in politics there.

Uh...I know plenty about the politics of the state and know plenty of people engaged in the process (on the GOP side, for the record) that agree with me.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, this poll apparently states that 40% don't even know much of anything about Christie yet and people here are still blasting the trumpets in victory?

Corzine's millions will allow the remaining 40% to realize that Christie worked for BUSH, ASHCROFT, CHENEY, ETC.

[Zarn]

By the way, this poll apparently states that 40% don't even know much of anything about Christie yet and people here are still blasting the trumpets in victory?

Corzine's millions will allow the remaining 40% to realize that Christie worked for BUSH, ASHCROFT, CHENEY, ETC.

They already know that... they just want to know more about Christie.

Look at these polls compared to previous years. It's over.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Let's take a quick look at some July polls and see how the races turned out.

Copied and pasted from PolitickerNJ, some July Q-polls.

July 1997: Christie Whitman 46%, James E. McGreevey 39%
June 2000: Corzine 46%, Bob Franks 26%
June 2000: Al Gore 45%, George W. Bush 40%
July 2001: McGreevey 48%, Bret Schundler 35%
June 2002: Bob Torricelli 44%, Douglas Forrester 36%
June 2004: John Kerry 46%, Bush 40%
June 2005: Corzine 47%, Forrester 37%
June 2006: Bob Menendez 43%, Tom Kean, Jr. 36%
June 2008: Frank Lautenberg 47%, Dick Zimmer 38%
June 2008: Barack Obama 45%, John McCain 39%

What do we have?  Well, mostly, we have a pattern of Democrats improving their standing as we move closer to election day.  Compare the Democratic poll lead in July to the final result: (poll|result).

July 1997: McGreevey (–7|–1)  D+6
June 2000: Corzine (+20|+3) D–17
June 2000: Gore (+5|+16) D+11
July 2001: McGreevey (+13|+15) D+2
June 2002: There was a movement of about 30 points in the GOP direction by the time Torricelli withdrew.
June 2004: Kerry (+6|+7) D+1
June 2005: Corzine (+10|+10.4) D+0.4
June 2006: Menendez (+7|+9) D+2
June 2008: Lautenberg (+9|+14) D+5
June 2008: Obama (+6|+16) D+10

We see, then, that on average, Democrats gained just over 2 points between their July polling numbers and their November final total; or +4.675 if you ignore the Corzine 2000 data point.

Christie is leading by 12, and no Democrat has gained more than 11 points between July and November.  Make of that what you will.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It is looking very good for Christie, though it is also much too early to assume that he'll win.

[Keystone Phil]

They already know that... they just want to know more about Christie.

LOL

Wow! Just...wow! "They already know that." You have no way of proving they already know that and don't care. I love the spin, too - "they just want more reasons to absolutely adore Chris!" 

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Uh huh. We'll see.

Something else everyone has forgotten - aside from Lautenberg, no statewide Dem has stood for re-election since 1994 (also Lautenberg) so that's another dynamic of this race being totally ignored. You can't point to Polls X, Y and Z and apply them to a race like this.

[Zarn]

I never said they adored Christie.

They just don't know a lot about him. They do know about his connections, the likely voters anyway. Those not interested in politics won't be voting, anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

I never said they adored Christie.

They just don't know a lot about him. They do know about his connections, the likely voters anyway.

Ok...so they don't know a lot about him but they do know all the bad stuff already just because you said so. Got it.

You do realize that 40% is a huge chunk of the electorate, right?

 

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I have no idea what this is even supposed to mean.

[Ronnie]

    GOVERNOR - NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac)
    Chris Christie (R) 53%
    Jon Corzine (D-inc) 41%

    Chris Christie (R) 47%
    Jon Corzine (D) 38%
    Christopher Daggett (I) 8%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1348

Yeah!!!

C'mon Christie, bring it home!

Keystone, stop being Eeyore.   Obviously it isn't over and we acknowledge that.

[Keystone Phil]

Keystone, stop being Eeyore.   Obviously it isn't over and we acknowledge that.

We? Look at some of the New Jersey posters here. They're popping bottles already. It's hilarious because they ought to know better...

Hey, listen, I can't stress enough how badly I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to see us spin a victory in NJ. I'd love to watch Jon Corzine give a concession speech.

[Ronnie]

I searched back a few pages, and it seems as if a couple of people are over-the-top, but there's nothing wrong with a little optimism.  In fact, we really need some nowadays!  If they are wrong, they are wrong; but there's no need to get worked up about it.

[Ronnie]

I'm a little worried about the Obama rally for Corzine on the 16th.  It should give him a small bounce.

Also, why can't I find a tab labeled "EVENTS" on Christie's website?  If he doesn't have any rallies, how is he going to generate support/enthusiasm?

[Keystone Phil]

I searched back a few pages, and it seems as if a couple of people are over-the-top, but there's nothing wrong with a little optimism.  In fact, we really need some nowadays!  If they are wrong, they are wrong; but there's no need to get worked up about it.

Optimism is great. Saying it's over isn't great.

[Ronnie]

I searched back a few pages, and it seems as if a couple of people are over-the-top, but there's nothing wrong with a little optimism.  In fact, we really need some nowadays!  If they are wrong, they are wrong; but there's no need to get worked up about it.

Optimism is great. Saying it's over isn't great.

I doubt that they actually think it's over.  I'm thinking it's more of a wishful thinking mentality.

[Zarn]

I never said they adored Christie.

They just don't know a lot about him. They do know about his connections, the likely voters anyway.

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I have no idea what this is even supposed to mean.

Why are you trying to hide your post in a quote?

They know the 'negative,' because Corzine let them know the 'negative.'

[CARLHAYDEN]

I'm a little worried about the Obama rally for Corzine on the 16th.  It should give him a small bounce.

Also, why can't I find a tab labeled "EVENTS" on Christie's website?  If he doesn't have any rallies, how is he going to generate support/enthusiasm?

Its really quite simple.

The less you know about Christie, the more likely you are to vote for him.

Basically Christie is running and NOT Corzine.

The truth is that is he essentially is Corzine (Christie is a liberal) with an (R) behind his name.

[Keystone Phil]

Why are you trying to hide your post in a quote?

Uh, what? It's calling a typing error, dope.

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I have no idea what this is supposed to mean either.

[Zarn]

Stop hiding your posts within the quotes.

If you don't know what anything means, then you obviously are either a kid or not intelligent enough.