2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Lunar]

The opening salvo is usually not the best card a candidate has to play. 

Corzine isn't an awful campaigner, I assume he knows that.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PoliticsNJ currently makes a very good point about the potential for a LG bid by State Senator Barbara  Buono (D-Middlesex)—her stock has gone up considerably considering that Corzine got an absolutely miserable 67% of the primary vote in the county. She's pretty popular in a State Senate district that Corzine would actually stand a chance of losing if the election was held today (but is otherwise solidly Democratic most years).

Middlesex is a key part of the base for Democrats, but they had tremendous difficulty in the county during the Florio/Whitman years and would likely be a key player in any strong Republican performance in the state:


1991 State Senate:
Jack Sinagra (R) wins the open District 18 (Edison/Metuchen) seat by 7 points.  [The incumbent Sen. Paterniti was upset in the Dem primary by a Democratic activist.]  Randy Corman (R) wins District 19  (Woodbridge) over long-time incumbent Sen. Weiss by 11 points.  Huge upsets, both.

1991 Assembly:
Derman and Warsh (both R) win District 18 in landslide fashion. Mikulak and Oros (both R) win District 19 in a more narrow fashion.

1993 Governor:
Jim Florio (D) wins Middlesex by 1,300 votes (0.6%) out of the 210,000+ cast. He had won the county by 53,000 votes, nearly 2:1, in his 1989 bid.

1993 State Senate:
Jack Sinagra (R) wins re-election by nearly 20 points. Jim McGreevey (D) narrowly ousts Corman by 3%.

1993 Assembly:
Derman and Warsh win re-election by solid margins. Mikulak and Oros win re-election by 400 votes.

1994 Assembly (special):
Barbara Buono (D) picks up the seat of Harriet Derman in LD18, who resigned to become Gov. Whitman's Chief of Staff.

1995 Assembly (no State Senate races):
Warsh loses re-election by 1,500 in a Democratic sweep of LD18. Democrats pick up LD19 as Mikulak and Oros get routed by nearly 5,000 votes.

1997 Governor: Whitman loses Middlesex to native-son McGreevey by "only" 13 points.

1997 State Senate:
Sen. Sinagra wins re-election by 17 points despite being heavily targeted.  Joe Vitale (D) easily wins McGreevey's open seat (by 36 points).

Sinagra retired in 2001 after his seat got redrawn into something much more Democratic.

[Brittain33]

Middlesex is a key part of the base for Democrats, but they had tremendous difficulty in the county during the Florio/Whitman years and would likely be a key player in any strong Republican performance in the state:

This is my home district. Jack Sinagra's wife had a license plate that said "SPEND IT" prior to his becoming mayor, when she had it changed. For "Career Day" at the community day camp, his young daughters put on feather boas to dress up as millionaires. They would be college graduates now, I think.  (googles) Yes, one of them attended a Sarah Silverman-sponsored benefit in the Hamptons.

Worth noting that there has been a lot of generational turnover in this district since 1990. Many of the parents with children or grown children then have sold and moved out, replaced by a much more diverse population. The foreign-born population of Middlesex County is very high. However, so are residential taxes...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Wow, talk about a warning sign: Corzine won only 56% of the primary vote in Warren County. It's a solidly GOP county, but still—Corzine is a Democratic incumbent and it was a Democratic primary.

He only got 60% in (GOP) Sussex, 61% in (GOP) Hunterdon, 62% in (competitive-but-small) Salem, and 64% in (Democratic) Gloucester. As said above, he only got 67% in Middlesex, a key, populous component of the Dem base.

His best county was Essex (Newark) where he got 89%, followed by Hudson (Jersey City) where he got 87%. Passiac and Union, both solidly Democratic, went for Corzine 85 and 81% respectively.

He got an ugly little 70% in Camden County, the anchor of Democratic performance in South Jersey.

[Sam Spade]

Not impressed by Corzine's primary performance.

Christie's performance is about what I expected.  Whomever the NJ machine supports, wins, as always. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Worth noting that there has been a lot of generational turnover in this district since 1990. Many of the parents with children or grown children then have sold and moved out, replaced by a much more diverse population. The foreign-born population of Middlesex County is very high. However, so are residential taxes...

Becoming more and more Asian, no?

[Brittain33]

Worth noting that there has been a lot of generational turnover in this district since 1990. Many of the parents with children or grown children then have sold and moved out, replaced by a much more diverse population. The foreign-born population of Middlesex County is very high. However, so are residential taxes...

Becoming more and more Asian, no?

Yes, particularly in Edison. Both South Asian and East Asian. My hometown built a mosque since I left; I don't know if the community is Pakistani or also Arab, but there has been a Coptic community there for decades, so it could be both. Also post-Soviet immigration, but I don't know how much.

[Rowan]

Not impressed by Corzine's primary performance.
  Whomever the NJ machine supports, wins, as always. 

Tell Bob Franks that...

[CARLHAYDEN]

Not impressed by Corzine's primary performance.

Christie's performance is about what I expected.  Whomever the NJ machine supports, wins, as always. 

How much of Christie's vote can be reasonable attributed to the New Jersey Republican organization?

It seems to me that his "victory" was rather unimpressive.

[Eraserhead]

How much did Corzine get in the primary? Sorry, I haven't been paying much attention to this yet.

[Zarn]

How much did Corzine get in the primary? Sorry, I haven't been paying much attention to this yet.

77%

http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_state/NJ_Page_0602.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[doktorb]

Republican Primary
(rounded to 2 decimal places)

Christoper CHRISTIE 180,630 (55.01%)
Steve LONEGAN 138,515 (42.25%)
Rick MERKT 9,005 (2.75%)

Democratic Primary

Jon CORZINE 148,791 (77.11%)
Carl BERGMANSON 16,678 (8.64%)
Jeff BOSS 15,966 (8.27%)
Roger BACON 11,515 (5.97%)

[Keystone Phil]

LOL!

77% as an incumbent with four absolutely insane joke opponents. Wow. You suck, Corzine.

[Lunar]

How bad is that historically?  I don't think that's that bad. 

Everyone knows NJ Democrats hate their own politicians, right?

[Keystone Phil]

How bad is that historically?  I don't think that's that bad. 

Everyone knows NJ Democrats hate their own politicians, right?

It's one thing to hate your politicians and vote for credible primary challengers. It's another thing when a quarter of your party dislikes you enough to vote for complete jokes. Believe me, I'm not making a case that this means Corzine is doomed. I've been the most consistent voice here saying that Corzine will very likely be re-elected. However, 77% is a horrible showing. The hardcore hacks turned out yesterday (especially on the Dem side). Hardcore hacks ought to be in Corzine's pocket.

[Lunar]

I'm not sure if "hardcore hacks" are those that necessarily went out to vote for Corzine in this primary... it would seem that those that were most pissed at him would be more likely to do so...

an uncontested off-year primary is a weird model to apply, not sure how it does.   

Basically, how does this compare historically to incumbent off-year New Jersey Democrats?

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not sure if "hardcore hacks" are those that necessarily went out to vote for Corzine in this primary... it would seem that those that were most pissed at him would be more likely to do so...

And they turned out to vote for which nut? It was next to impossible for people to follow "the others" in the race.

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I wish I knew but it can't be one of the better showings.

[Lunar]

I know at least in special elections, off year elections favor more conservatives "voting is my duty as a citizen" types than liberal hacks.  I'm not sure about primaries which are regularly scheduled but no one cares about except at the local level.

And yeah, New Jersey Democratic-leaning voters are nationally infamous for being undecided on the establishment candidate until the last couple weeks...

meh, I don't care that much outside of the broader political implications.  My suspicion is that the Democrats will win this one and the Republicans will take Virginia.  The Republicans certainly have a significantly higher chance of taking both seats than the Democrats have of retaining both.

I have my personal opinions of both Corzine and Christie, but I think they both average out to be about neutral until we see the campaign unfold more. 

Corzine appears to be the more skilled and experienced campaigner.  He's been fairly silent on the race thus far, I don't know if he has the heart to pour fifty million into the race  when I'm sure his own  has been chopped in half
 

[Eraserhead]

Hilldawg only got 83% in 2006 and she had strong approval ratings. Just saying.

[Zarn]

51-38 Christie on Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor

[Keystone Phil]

Hilldawg only got 83% in 2006 and she had strong approval ratings. Just saying.

Corzine doesn't have strong approval ratings.

I know at least in special elections, off year elections favor more conservatives "voting is my duty as a citizen" types than liberal hacks. 

That doesn't mean people go and vote for nutcases. And, as certain posters that know way more than either of us noted earlier, NJ primaries are absolutely dominated by hacks.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Basically, how does this compare historically to incumbent off-year New Jersey Democrats?

There's not a whole heck of a lot to compare it to, but most recently:

Menendez got 84% in 2006;
Corzine got 88% in 2005; and
McGreevey got 96% in 2001.

Bob Torricelli was unopposed in 2002, and Lautenberg had a credible opponent (Rep. Andrews) in 2008.

[pogo stick]

Christie 2009!!!!

I am happy he won the nomination.

[Eraserhead]

Hilldawg only got 83% in 2006 and she had strong approval ratings. Just saying.

Corzine doesn't have strong approval ratings.

I know. That was the point.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Former Commissioner of the NJ Department of Environmental Protection and deputy chief of staff under Gov. Kean, Chris Daggett, is supposedly "close" to raising the ~$300k needed to qualify for New Jersey's 3:1 matching funds program.

Dunno if it's for real (I'm skeptical myself), but PoliticsNJ is reporting it, so that at least gives the report some credibility.

If Daggett qualifies for matching funds, he and Christie will be required by state law to have a public debate. (There is no requirement yet that candidates for LG debate; state Democrats are supposedly waiting until Christie picks his LG to decide whether or not to move forward with making one a requirement.)

Corzine (and his LG, if applicable) is (are) exempt from having to debate due to his (their) opting out of the matching funds program.