2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Rowan]

I saw an ad from the RGA attacking Corzine today on CNN. Surprised they have gotten in already.

[Lunar]

I really like Corzine's website:
http://www.joncorzine09.com/

apparently Jon Bovi is holding a fundraiser concert for him.

[cinyc]

I really like Corzine's website:
http://www.joncorzine09.com/

apparently Jon Bovi is holding a fundraiser concert for him.

More reason to dislike Bon Jovi.

The ad war is definitely heating up, even in the expensive NYC OTA TV market.   I've seen ads from Lonegan, Christie and the PAC ad attacking Christie now.

[Keystone Phil]

I know the yard sign wars are pretty meaningless but if they did mean anything, the presence I've seen in South Jersey (on properties, too, by the way) is alarmingly positive for Lonegan.

I saw one Christie sign on a property (it was in Sea Isle City - where I vacation). One. Compare that to about twenty I saw on properties for Lonegan.

Turnout better not be pathetically low because Lonegan could eek out a narrow win. I was told that the polls in 2001 had Franks destroying Schundler and we know how that turned out...

[Joe Republic]

Here in Ohio I've seen one Lonegan bumper sticker, and none for Christie or Corzine so far.  I think it's pretty clear which way the wind is blowing.

[Keystone Phil]

Here in Ohio I've seen one Lonegan bumper sticker, and none for Christie or Corzine so far.  I think it's pretty clear which way the wind is blowing.

I love this guy.

[Rowan]

Phil, you convinced me. With that 20-1 ratio, it wouldn't surprise me if Lonegan wins 95-5.

Oh and stay out of my state you shoobie.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, you convinced me. With that 20-1 ratio, it wouldn't surprise me if Lonegan wins 95-5.

...

Dude, I said it was basically meaningless but if turnout is pathetically low, the one guy has a chance because he clearly has the motivated voters (and this isn't just because of lawn signs). I never said a 95-5 win either; I said he could eek out a win.

If you were aiming to be funny in that post, well, try again.

[Rowan]

Phil, you convinced me. With that 20-1 ratio, it wouldn't surprise me if Lonegan wins 95-5.

...

Dude, I said it was basically meaningless but if turnout is pathetically low, the one guy has a chance because he clearly has the motivated voters (and this isn't just because of lawn signs). I never said a 95-5 win either; I said he could eek out a win.

If you were aiming to be funny in that post, well, try again.

Relax, I agree with you for the most part. Lonegan leads among those that call themselves "very conservative" by a few points but performs pathetically among "moderates." So yes, an abysmal turnout could produce a Lonegan victory, though it's doubtful.

[Verily]

I know the yard sign wars are pretty meaningless but if they did mean anything, the presence I've seen in South Jersey (on properties, too, by the way) is alarmingly positive for Lonegan.

I saw one Christie sign on a property (it was in Sea Isle City - where I vacation). One. Compare that to about twenty I saw on properties for Lonegan.

Turnout better not be pathetically low because Lonegan could eek out a narrow win. I was told that the polls in 2001 had Franks destroying Schundler and we know how that turned out...

Interesting. Around here, which I would expect to be Lonegan's base, there's nothing. I mean, the Italian vote does tend to follow the party line, and the Italian vote is basically synonymous with the Republican vote in south Bergen except in some pockets of Orthodox Jews or Russians, but I would still expect Lonegan to have a lot of support in and around Bogota. But I haven't actually been to Bogota for a few months even though it's only about two miles away, so maybe he has the town plastered with signs.

If I have time tomorrow, I'll drive over and take a look around.


Anyway, turnout is impossible to gauge, and made more difficult for me by the fact that the hot contests locally are the Democratic primaries for mayor and city council (tantamount to election), which have completely overshadowed the Republican gubernatorial primary.

[Rowan]

I have seen zero yard signs from either candidate, but I have seen many Christie signs on public property. I haven't seen anything from Lonegan anywhere at all, I bet no one down here even knows who he is.

[Keystone Phil]

Uh...

You've seen nothing from Lonegan? You're not too far from the route I take to the shore. Lonegan had an insane amount of signs on public property. He's certainly known and I just hope he doesn't have an insane amount of activists that will get him enough votes in South Jersey to win it.

[Rowan]

Uh...

You've seen nothing from Lonegan? You're not too far from the route I take to the shore. Lonegan had an insane amount of signs on public property. He's certainly known and I just hope he doesn't have an insane amount of activists that will get him enough votes in South Jersey to win it.

Literally, nothing at all, I swear. It could just be the roads I travel though.

[Keystone Phil]

Literally, nothing at all, I swear. It could just be the roads I travel though.

Well, let's hope that that's a sign that he has no real organization at all down there. 

[cinyc]

Turnout better not be pathetically low because Lonegan could eek out a narrow win. I was told that the polls in 2001 had Franks destroying Schundler and we know how that turned out...

Bret Schundler turned around Jersey City from a corruption-plagued cesspool to the city it is today.  And Lonegan...

[Rowan]

I just researched to see what the polls were from 2001. The last Quinnipiac poll had Schundler up 15, and Schundler ended up winning by 15, so I think I will trust that Quinnipiac has a good Likely Voter model.

[Keystone Phil]

Turnout better not be pathetically low because Lonegan could eek out a narrow win. I was told that the polls in 2001 had Franks destroying Schundler and we know how that turned out...

Bret Schundler turned around Jersey City from a corruption-plagued cesspool to the city it is today.  And Lonegan...

And that has nothing to do with the fact that he polled so badly compared to Franks just before the primary and went on to win.

I just researched to see what the polls were from 2001. The last Quinnipiac poll had Schundler up 15, and Schundler ended up winning by 15, so I think I will trust that Quinnipiac has a good Likely Voter model.

I had forgotten that Schundler ended up winning by a comfortable margin but I still believe he was polling behind Franks close to the primary (and I've been told as much by people involved in NJ politics).

Whatever the case, let's just hope there isn't an upset next week.

[TeePee4Prez]

The GOP will always poll strong in the early stages in NJ, but in the very end a Democrat will win.  I hope Obama appoints Corzine to something though.

[Rowan]

The GOP will always poll strong in the early stages in NJ, but in the very end a Democrat will win.  I hope Obama appoints Corzine to something though.

Not poll ahead in 10 straight polls...

In fact, no other candidate before Christie in the last 10 years has polled ahead of the Democrat in more than 1 poll, Christie has led 10 straight.

[Verily]

The GOP will always poll strong in the early stages in NJ, but in the very end a Democrat will win.  I hope Obama appoints Corzine to something though.

Not poll ahead in 10 straight polls...

In fact, no other candidate before Christie in the last 10 years has polled ahead of the Democrat in more than 1 poll, Christie has led 10 straight.

Kean was definitely ahead for more than one poll. I wasn't paying as much as attention for earlier races as I was away at college, but I suspect others polled ahead frequently, too.

Still, Christie is definitely in a stronger position than past Republicans, although his margin has stopped widening and contracted a bit (a settling at this point, I think, not a turnaround for Corzine at least so far). The ads accusing Christie of sleaze are pretty potent and I think exactly what Corzine needs, strategically; he's disliked already, but if he can destroy Christie's white-knight image, the normal pattern of voting for the less-hated party will reassert itself. But the race will only get interesting after the primaries; or not, if Lonegan wins. Although Lonegan would be entertaining in similar fashion to a train wreck.

[Rowan]

The GOP will always poll strong in the early stages in NJ, but in the very end a Democrat will win.  I hope Obama appoints Corzine to something though.

Not poll ahead in 10 straight polls...

In fact, no other candidate before Christie in the last 10 years has polled ahead of the Democrat in more than 1 poll, Christie has led 10 straight.

Kean was definitely ahead for more than one poll. I wasn't paying as much as attention for earlier races as I was away at college, but I suspect others polled ahead frequently, too.

Oops, I meant to add "statewide."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Technical disclaimers aside, polls showing Tom Kean Jr. ahead were few and far between, and when he was leading, it was only by a couple of points.  Christie's lead is broader, more solid, and reliably consistent.  The facts are slightly off but the main message remains true: Christie's lead and standing is far more dangerous to Democrats than any recent Republican before him (save for the brief period where Forrester enjoyed double-digit leads against Bob Torricelli).

Most worrisome for Democrats: the typical late-election surge enjoyed by Democrats in New Jersey is less than the amount that Christie is leading by in poll after poll.  The guy is likeable, and his record is a tough one to smear.

Republicans are right to eye that lead nervously, of course: poll internals show the lead is built on a foundation of leading in "Whitman Democrat" counties like Bergen, Passaic, Mercer, Union, and Middlesex—places the GOP did quite well (relatively) in the 1990s but have since fallen off the cliff in favor of total Democratic rule.

I can reiterate here what most of us already know: Though New Jersey is the one of the most "independent" states in the country based on registration, it is similarly the most partisan state in the country based on election returns. Even the most partisan of states has its limit, especially in times of bad government.

Think Massachusetts, 1990. Connecticut, 1994. Rhode Island, 2002. Republicans won elections in those states, despite huge registration and PR disadvantages, by presenting themselves as credible alternatives and a check on Democratic power. So long as Christie holds his own and doesn't collapse under pressure, he's favored to win.

Corzine (2009) makes an excellent target.  He's not as toxic as Torricelli so he'll be sticking to the race, but he is toxic enough to actually lose. There will be a lot of people voting Republican in 2009 who haven't voted Republican for Governor since 1997, methinks.

[Rowan]

I know anecdotal evidence means jack, but I know personally a dozen Obama voters that are voting for Christie. I don't know a single McCain voter that will vote for Corzine.

[Franzl]

I know anecdotal evidence means jack, but I know personally a dozen Obama voters that are voting for Christie. I don't know a single McCain voter that will vote for Corzine.

well sure....that's obvious, unless you expect Corzine to win by 15 points....

[Smash255]

The more you know about Lonegan, the less you like!

I've informed my mother that she is effectively disowned if she votes for the virulently anti-gay Lonegan.  (Though she was otherwise lured in by his reckless fiscal about face.)

Lonegan is running ads on local NYC TV.  I haven't seen a Christie ad yet (though he may be making cable buys in New Jersey, which probably gets much more bang for the buck).

I've seen Christie ads on the Philly TV market which covers everything from Trenton to down south.

Over the air TV during the news or on cable?

The New Jersey local OTA TV advertising strategy is a tough one - except for the Atlantic City NBC affiliate (with limited reach), all the OTA advertising has to be bought in the very expensive NYC and Philadelphia TV markets.  For North Jersey, I guess WWOR (my9) is the most logical OTA station to put ads since it's based in Secaucus, NJ and their newscasts are a bit more Jersey-centered than the others. 

I haven't watched to see if Christie is advertising on my9.  But he's not on the other locals, as far as I know.  On the other hand, I've seen 2 different Lonegan commercials, both touting his tax and spending cut plans.

Saw a Christie spot on the 5PM CBS News.